Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Metwatch]

Record low pressure for southern England in February anyone? 956hPa just outside London if it verifies

Edited February 2 by Metwatch

[Battleground Snow]

 BarnetBlizzard yep a blizzard, with easternly winds.

 

[northwestsnow]

GEM looks good 144

[Lukesluckybunch]

Is that the UK high coming in at day 8 like the met mentioned..

[frosty ground]

 Lukesluckybunch like the 06z run?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gem is being consistent again and pretty awsome!.let's hope ecm follows!

[Ali1977]

 goosey007not ignoring the UKMO, the UKMO only goes to 144 at the minute - I’m looking at 168/180 ish!! Let’s see what the UKMO 168 looks like and the GEFS  !! 

The GEFS had MEAN snowfall and -8c uppers the last run by T180 - hopefully the same again 

[Mike Poole]

GEM the pick this afternoon, brings in easterly nicely, T204:

GFS is good also, cold is delayed compared to the best runs yesterday I think.  UKMO poor again (and bear in mind the majority ECM cluster favoured it).  

Snow towards next week end still very possible for some, I’d like to get that nailed - there are likely to be good opportunities to follow, but in the UK those cannot be taken for granted yet.  Still uncertainty over the MJO and whether it will make a decent phase 8 that I’d like to see resolved to have confidence that the consistent longer term forecasts from e.g. the 46 will deliver.

[Tim Bland]

Gem shows “sledges at the ready” next weekend

[chrisnoy]

GFS is  two day wonder, mild muck and rain by Monday.

 

 

 

[Harsh Climate]

12z Gfs is a great run simply because it keeps the theme of low pressure bringing Heavy snow on it's northern side to somewhere in UK Thursday!

If it verified bang on as shown would be highly disappointing for me, wet snow turning to sleet, then rain. Thankfully we are nowhere near the timeframe of nailing it's exact position so nothing to worry about in that respect..

[Jacob]

 Tim Bland Hoping that doesn’t verify because then I will miss my holiday to Svalbard! 

[northwestsnow]

 Mike Poole

things look to be unravelling again from where I'm sat..

There is no sign of Northern Blocking taking hold after the lows  ...

That's what I was banking on ,not sure where EC 46 is  coming from with blocking to the NW,this side of March the way things are going  !!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo still north at 168

[That ECM]

I will be the miserable so and so. Unless ukmo is on board it’s worth being reserved.

[Harsh Climate]

 That ECM

To be fair the UKMO only goes as far as next Thursday, might just be delaying the cold by a day or 2 over other models??

Today's output so far, although not stellar, steady as she goes! Nice that we still have potential heavy snow on the table for Thursday!  (I Know it doesn't look likely on the latest UKMO but look where that 0 dam 850 line is, just north of that will be heavy snow!)

Edited February 2 by Harsh Climate

[blizzard81]

 northwestsnow I've got to say I'm with you mate. Getting that sinking feeling now. Trouble is, us long suffering long timers on this forum can sniff downgrades from a mile away. We've seen it that often lol. When the GEM is consistently showing the colder solution then it just adds to my doubt I'm afraid. 

[That ECM]

 Harsh Climate FWIW I think next Thursday is a “good for Scottish ski industry “ post. Imo. I’m not saying ukmo is right but best to wait and see.

[bluearmy]

39 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

s 12z 🌨❄

Surprised you like it that much 

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy its all too North and by the time the pattern gets south enough the colder air will get mixed out.

I'm really struggling to see what EC 46 is seeing too..

[frosty ground]

 northwestsnow it’s the 2nd of February, the runs you are seeing go out to the 16th. Of February why o why are you talking about March?

 

[northwestsnow]

 frosty ground

I think I was being sarcastic,actually I was ranting   

 

Edited February 2 by northwestsnow

[Harsh Climate]

 northwestsnow  Remember these things have a tendency to end up further South come T0 

[MJB]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There is no sign of Northern Blocking taking hold after the lows  ..

The video I posted from Gavs Vids also showed very good blocking into Feb.....................patience  

[johncam]

 northwestsnow EC46 are run at lower resolution than the assembles do would take eith a pinch of salt. They showing the whole of Jan into Feb cold at one point and we know how that panned out. Nothing other than normal winter fayre in the models this evening.