Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[AO-]

Given the scatter. I think GEM is not really reliable. The worst calculations are possible. Comparing the EPS with both EC as GFS, I don't think it performs well in the long term. Does anybody have an idea what causes this? 

 

[Stuie]

 AO- Pretty solid for 4 days, which tbh, covers all models.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z gefs mean is a vast improvement than the 06z so far here at 324...

 

[Harsh Climate]

ECM coming out, can it start a trend of bringing Thursdays's low further south, let's see.

Excellent post from TEITS, couldn't have put it any better!

 AO-

 I know the GEM will have verification stats to back it up but for our little Island, alongside the JMA I have it down as absolutely useless, I've stopped looking at those 2 models.

Edited February 3 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

LikeI have been saying all day, here you go!!

The low is further south and closer to T0, We have progress! 

Edited February 3 by Harsh Climate

[Stuie]

ECM does seem to track the LP with the southerly predicted jet.

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

LikeI have been saying all day, here you go!!

Ecm looks pretty decent at 120!bit further south

[Allseasons-Si]

Keep these whacky charts coming

gefs control...

and the mean is still very good out to 360...

12z v's 06z.

[Harsh Climate]

 Lukesluckybunch

Heavy snow as far south as the North Yorkshire border on this run

Edited February 3 by Harsh Climate

[mountain shadow]

 Stuie Even with today's modern computer power we still cannot get a concensus on a low only 4 days from now.

[Harsh Climate]

 mountain shadow

Surely the lessons should have been learnt with the last fiasco, where the low headed down to France!

[Stuie]

 mountain shadow I know, bizarre. The only sort of model that seems reliable is the jet stream.

[Ali1977]

Those discounting Thursdays snow potential may go quiet. Decent move south with the colder uppers already digging south on Thursday 

[Allseasons-Si]

That's a bloody good gefs geo pot mean....

and the 500mb mean is not too shabby either.

 

Edited February 3 by Allseasons-Si
Added chart

[AO-]

The course of the shortwave is questionable in tonights' EC. Shortwave moving northeast where the jet is West East oriented. In this case I would expect the shortwave to move more east given the shape at 120h and the strength of the jet. Important for advecting more cold. 

[Ali1977]

Snow by Saturday down to the M4 or even further south - noting the low has probably moved east though!! Either way, it’s a big move south and the snow chances remain strong fir many - then later in the month could be epic

Edited February 3 by Ali1977

[Eagle Eye]

Major SSW on the GFS 00Z run on Stratobserve, the trend has been going towards this for a while. Good wavebreaking for a QTR if it did occur. Just something to keep an eye on. 

[Ali1977]

Ice day by next Sunday looking at that. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Ice day by next Sunday looking at that. 

Was just about too post that..great chart!longevity I think this run

[northwestsnow]

EC is amazingly good ️

[Mike Poole]

 Eagle Eye Yes, GEFS 6z have 58% chance of a SSW now.  

In an ideal world, the QTR from this will kick in just as the lagged AAM/MJO response is waning and ignite a BFTE 2024…well, it could happen, couldn’t it?

Or, for balanced commentary, the SSW could demolish a perfectly placed block established as a result of the AAM/MJO.  

Something to keep an eye on, as you say…

[MAF]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is amazingly good ️

why?????

I HATE one liners in this thread

[northwestsnow]

 MAF because its very cold and hopefully snow about

[Battleground Snow]

Hello ec46

[northwestsnow]