Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ali1977]

Cherry picking P24 from the 06z EC please 

[damianslaw]

Quite bemusing to read the running commentary reactions to each model run 24 hr interval when you know where the model is heading.. today's GFS6z a case in point, where it ends with significant blocking and easterly.. but it gets there in a very roundabout way, no seamless seague into cold following the push of the trough east, hence the reactions saying no chance of sustained cold, but it then plays us along...

Not saying GFS has it right, but it does appear the atlantic is about to go on quiet mode as we enter mid month.. and every chance heights may position themselves in a place for a sustained colder period. 

Edited February 3 by damianslaw

[blizzard81]

 damianslaw nothing unusual about the atlantic going quiet during Februaries. That is normal. This certainly doesn't preclude what most on here are wanting which is a meaningful cold spell. 

[Cold Winter Night]

At the moment, I don’t see reason to be downbeat or concerned about the second half of February.
This morning’s extended output from EPS and GEFS is still very blocked, regardless of the emotions in this thread.

The large majority of members is good to excellent from a cold synoptic POV.
Here are the full EPS 0z and GEFS 6z panels at 336h, mid-extended:

There’s no denying that we have a great collection of Scandi and Greenland Highs there.

As MJO and stratosphere are incorporated in the models (after all, the strat and MJO plots are output from the same models), there is in my opinion no need to worry about phase and progression as long as the synoptics in the Euro-Atlantic end up as amplified as they do at this moment.

“But it’s FI and that can change quickly,” I hear the pessimist say. True, of course it can, but that’s not the output reality right now.

Interesting stuff, sit back, learn, relax and keep breathing.

[josh-weather]

 blizzard81 yes you're right probably was a bit harsh. Thanks!

[Jackski4]

Don’t be surprised for the LP and cold to be significantly further south than it’s showing now. So many times the past few winters these have trended south.

[Jacob]

 Ali1977 You sure about that? 

[blizzard81]

 josh-weather I wasn't saying that you were being harsh lol. I meant that I was also replying to another forum member by the name of Harsh Climate as he had a similar question to you. 

Edited February 3 by blizzard81

[Johnp]

 CoventryWeather

Am I looking at the wrong charts? It’s a terrible run with the southern half of Britain never getting below -4c at 850hpa?

[blizzard81]

 Johnp I agree. I think there's a lot of desperation creeping in here today. 

[January Snowstorm]

Nothing cold here right out to Friday @ Icon. Not the best of starts

Edited February 3 by January Snowstorm

[Mcconnor8]

 Johnp The GFS has the -6/-8 Isotherm reaching the South of the UK on the 11th so after the ICON run finishes so wouldn't expect it on that run, it is marginally better than the 0z run but obviously no deep cold on the horizon soon.

GFS 12z with quite a different shape to the low than the 6z and actually looks further North now.

Edited February 3 by Mcconnor8

[JimBob]

Yesterday temperatures were looking like 4 and 5 degrees for the end of next week, now into double figures for the same time period…..

[January Snowstorm]

Gfs further North, removes the snow risk entirely across the South

[blizzard81]

 January Snowstorm The writing has been on the wall for Thursday for the last few suites. As I said earlier, some parts of Scotland are still in the game but the rest of us need to let it go now. Not healthy to cling on to false hope. 

[Ali1977]

 blizzard81 im not letting it go yet, still looks good to me heading into the weekend as the cold digs south.

lots of potential here, much to be resolved 

Edited February 3 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

Poor 850's at 156 in comparison to the 6z...hopefully the run gets going!

[feb1991blizzard]

 January Snowstorm

It just hasn't got a scooby has it, its just blown up a ridiculous potent shortwave that wasn't there on 5z.

[That ECM]

 feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

Snow maker inbound maybe 

[blizzard81]

 Ali1977 I was specifically referring to Thursday as some were getting excited about a potential snowfall. The jury is still out from the weekend onwards but imo there's not much I can see that is anything more than normal late winter fayre. Slim pickings going towards mid Feb. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you nor has the UKMO got a clue either!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looks a better run in the long term...but pretty awful up until day 9 on the gfs!

[blizzard81]

Just to counteract the misconception that I may be being a doom monger today - A more positive development on the gfs 12z compared to the 06z run is lowering pressure over Europe. You can clearly see the difference. Gem, although I'm not a fan of the model is trending the same way this evening. We need to see ecm trend this way though. We may then have something to sing about. 

[Mike Poole]

Where’s this high going?  GFS T270:

If you accept that potential for Thursday’s snow is confined to the north, then moving on, the next phase is the surge of cold south as the low passes - this looks good on both GFS and GEM this afternoon.  And GFS heading for a decent finish…

Edited February 3 by Mike Poole