Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[northwestsnow]

6z adjusting south too ??

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z (gulp)

[northwestsnow]

 sheikhy looks much further south at 72 mate 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters not holding back about the longer term evolution this morning!  T192-T240:

Blocking developing during this timeframe, strongest into Greenland in cluster 3.  Northerly component to UK winds on clusters 2 and 3.  Cluster 1 builds the ridge through the UK to the NE, with a ridge to the NW as well.

T264+;

Worth looking at the big picture across the clusters.  A diffuse pattern of blocking at day 11 converging on strong blocking in the Greenland area by day 15 - on all clusters.  Although, interestingly the 4 day 15 charts all have different coloured borders, so the algorithm has seen fit to classify them as different regimes!  If anyone can explain why the day 15 chart on cluster 2 is +NAO, and on cluster 4 it is -NAO, please tell us!  There are differences in the exact placement of the high, but the detail of that won’t be resolved for a while.

 

[northwestsnow]

Midlands is going to end up sweet here 

[sheikhy]

 northwestsnow it is mate!!!!!!thats why i gulped lol cos i gota take my words back!!!!!

[northwestsnow]

 sheikhy never doubt EC at that range

[Nick F]

 IDO

Quote

I would ignore the EC 0z as it is a clear outlier for 850s for Birmingham north around the time of the snow boundary. Birmingham:

The EC op doesn't look like an outlier to me on wetterzentrale spread for Birmingham, would treat those meteociel EPS spread graphs with caution, think they are too crude.

 

[bluearmy]

 northwestsnow further north to begin with but a more disrupted system overall 

one step towards ec I guess but needs to adjust the track which is dependant on a few factors 

[sheikhy]

 northwestsnow

Hmmm not so sure mate!!!!not with the way my king model has behaved recently!always doubts there!!!in general though it would normally be spot on!!!

[winterof79]

Back edge snow Tuesday still on the table

 

 

[CoventryWeather]

To be fair at this range (96-120) the ECM and UKMO would be my go to models. 

[TEITS]

One significant point about the ECM ensembles is the fact that the control follows the operational. When this occurs at such a short timeframe you take note.

So my advice would be caution rather than "Bin it" because this is not an outlier.

[CoventryWeather]

 TEITS Exactly. At this range the EC and the ensembles are never outliers. Often they are closest to the final solution. 

[SLEETY]

said few days ago the lows in these set-ups always trend South every day.The last cold spell in jan  the low ended up missing the uk completely remember,

[winterof79]

 bluearmy Yes blue further north initially

[IDO]

Still a difference at D6 between the EC and GFS 06z for the cold front:

06z close to 0z. Hopefully, the GFS 12z will start moving south.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Poor run really from the 6z

[IDO]

The GFS 06z changing at D7 and moving towards the GEM D7:

With a mini-ridge building from the Azores.

Versus 0z:

Edited February 4 by IDO

[Lukesluckybunch]

Double figure surface temps in the South next weekend!we all have a tend too look at day 10 stuff and forget about the nearer timeframe..and it's getting watered down.

Edited February 4 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[That ECM]

 IDO  The difficulty with end of the week potential is that we need it to be at the bottom of the options and the middle options don’t produce what most would want.

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch hoping the GEFS are more ECM

[nick sussex]

The low at the end of the week does have a domino effect on the depth of cold left over Scandi in case the UK can tap into that relatively early .

So the more elongated low set up is preferable .

 

[Ice Day]

The GFS is attempting a weak Easterly at day 8

 

 

[frosty ground]

 Lukesluckybunch

yep days 4-7 has cross model agreement and days 10 plus also has cross model agreement. Sad face justified