Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Lukesluckybunch I think Oxfordshire would be great for snow with that chart , hard to tell what temps are though

Uppers obviously not out yet..I'm guessing -6/8

[winterof79]

Corker

[Spah1]

 Tim Bland

I don’t think it’s moved South it’s just delayed the front arriving. 

[That ECM]

Forget same page, different book.

[Mike Poole]

 That ECM That’s the 0z, mate.

UKMO T144:

Quite an extraordinary shift south on this model.  Fascinating.  

[Harsh Climate]

 Spah1

It is further south on it's track west to east, the problem is it blows up north after initial entry to UK.

This is a perfectly plausible outcome, hope not though.

[Chesil View]

Ukmo joins the southward trend party and has the low over Paris by Saturday and much of the  in minus 4 to minus 8 uppers

Edited February 4 by Chesil View

[Battleground Snow]

 Lukesluckybunch

Cold enough for even the south coast haha.

That ecm this morning really was a wtf moment, rare these days we get such at big shift at day 4/5.

 

[Ali1977]

The UKMO is epic for the midlands and south I reckon - it’ll be interesting to see  where the snow line is - UKV later could be interesting and a 300 mile shift south. 

[That ECM]

 Mike Poole no 12z. 

[northwestsnow]

Further south is good..

If EC follows UKMO the Midlands/ southern crew could be looking at something memorable.

So close guys!!

[Ali1977]

 Battleground Snow those 850s suggest all snow away from south coast on the UKMO fir Thurs and Friday 

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T850s, T120, T144!  Awesome!

GFS meanwhile rather struggling to clear the low east.  GEM a little south initially, but moves NE.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Cold enough for even the south coast haha.

let's hope so battleground..it would also be rare for both ecm and ukmo to be wrong!

[Battleground Snow]

 Ali1977 even they might be okay with dew points in from the east wind.

Those ukmo snow charts will be fun in an hour or so

[jacke]

 TEITS perhaps it’s because your location is close to mine that I am biased towards your comments lol. But so well said! Surely the main point of this thread and as a hobby is to say what you see from all the available info and give your forecast.  Harping on past failures of the cold arriving gets us nowhere. I have seen more failures than most of you because of my age but reminding every other post is not fun.  For what’s it worth the Thursday scenario will turn out as a real  mix and the dividing line will be fairly straight somewhere across the midlands Snow showers the further north you go sleety rain on the border, rain to the south. For my area only just on the sea level mark normally experience sleety rain in these set ups. Following on to the weekend, still guesswork. 

[IDO]

GEM is closer to GFS for the snow line on D5+, but not as rotund in the modelling of the low as the GFS is:

 

GEM-UK-GFS

So the GEM delays the cold front and a non-event like the GFS for the south. T162 on GEM and GFS:

EC & UK -v- GEM & GFS.

The models are struggling...

 

[Spah1]

Arpege 4pm Thursday 

[CoventryWeather]

As stated earlier as soon as the UKMO and ECM support each other, then that solution has a good chance of verifying. 

Two of the best models in the world support this scenario now, but is there going to be another twist tomorrow morning? Hope it stays like this, us midlanders really need a proper snow event.

[winterof79]

Too many bites at the cherry to get downbeat about.

Tues,Thursday weekend 

[Mike Poole]

GEM has the easterly in by T216, after the low clears:

Uppers not spectacular as yet, though.

There’s suddenly an awful lot going on on multiple timescales.  

[daz_4]

Looking at GFS 12z up to 240 hours,  the first half of February has a pretty good chance to be the warmest on record here in Central Europe.

[That ECM]

T168 ukmo

[Ali1977]

 That ECM still looks snowy in the SE

[That ECM]

 Ali1977 so much to be sorted.