Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ali1977]

Friday looking good on the UKMO for the south, if there’s precip around the M4 area!! All on the ECM now !! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

still looks snowy in the SE

What about them ukmo snow charts ali..?

[Cloud 10]

As noted by others,a big lunge south for Thursday's low from the 12z UKMO,especially when compared with yesterday's.

 

today's. yesterday's.

[IDO]

GFS at D11-12 aligns with my thoughts on the potential Feb cold. Later next week would be a bonus for cold for Midlands South. See:

It's too early to get specifics, but we see the UK/Arctic/Alaskan high/ridge(s) again.

The next stage will be retrogression to Greenland. I am not sure Scandi Heights will be a solution; it's just the usual overplay of heights in FI.

 

[Tim Bland]

looking forward to the snow charts !

[Cloud 10]

12z UKMO precip charts rolling out now.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmohd.php?map=10

 

Also stonking Fi from GFS.

 

Edited February 4 by Cloud 10

[That ECM]

 Cloud 10 indeed.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

now we are talking.  There’s more to resolve….but winter is definitely looking to come back.  I don’t think the exact track will be resolved for a couple of days yet

 

 BFTP

[johncam]

 That ECM the GFS isnt the greatest for cold till late in the run especiallyfor the south. Are we all discounting it? 

[Mike Poole]

 Cloud 10 Yes, it is isn’t it.  The earlier part of the run was underwhelming (for the UK).  But here’s the thing, I’m not sure how the micro-scale moving of the pieces to determine the snow or not question next week, affects the larger scale movement of the pieces on the longer timescale which seem to be all pointing in the same (blocked) direction.  

Are the models overegging the blocking in week 2?  If they aren’t, could be some end to winter.

But all that will have to wait, the first question is - will the ECM follow the UKMO tonight?

[Ali1977]

Thursday rain, but that was expected - it’s what happens into Friday  still good up north on Thurs for some 

Edited February 4 by Ali1977

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,American models GFS/GEM keen on bringing the Atlantic low further north which would bring milder weather to the south and keeping snow to the north.UKMO a peach Atlantic low tracking to the south of UK keeping the cold feed over all of the UK along with snow for most.

[That ECM]

 johncam I’m not, I’m not saying it’s right either. I’ve been on the longer term cold possibility but ukmo is interesting.

[johncam]

 That ECM sorry wasn't implying you were , just not much being said about it. 

[sheikhy]

No sugar coating it but that is seriously underwhelming from ukmo in terms of snow for thursday friday!!!

[Man With Beard]

 IDO The period 15-20 February looks rather interesting. Consistent signals for a massive departure from the norm.

[Ali1977]

 sheikhy you needed to wait for the 850s to drop ️️️ expected better though TBF 

Edited February 4 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

 Ali1977 its not much mate it really isnt!!!!after looking at the 850s and the pressure charts earlier i expected so much more!!!!its still a developing situation anyway so lets see over the next few days!

[MattStoke]

 sheikhy Good for the north/north West Midlands. I find the UKMO snow charts to be particularly poor, though.

[Ali1977]

 sheikhy it’s a step in the right direction fir southerners - let’s see what the ECM does 

[blizzard81]

Ukmo and aperge going for a mainly high ground affair for Thursday. 

[Ali1977]

10cm IMBY but I won’t be trusting that - someone is getting snow whatever happens - and that’s a rare thing this year ️ good luck to whoever does 

[Tim Bland]

Not too shabby by Sunday 

[bluearmy]

 Tim Bland

actual snow cover by Sunday rather than every drop of sleet that’s fallen is less impressive tim 

 

[suxer]

 bluearmy thanks for that