Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ice Day]

GEM is sniffing out something at day 9

 

[Dennis]

just the way it goes : flip -flap-flop 

and HOP to the block (soon)

 

[Snowyowl9]

If we are looking the worst case scenario that is the GFS we ll still snow..which I did even looked at earlier..the details..

An easterly with some drifting is all I ask for..

Probably because GFS 12 z run is an upgrade in the short term..

 

Edited February 5 by Snowyowl9

[frosty ground]

 IDO

You compared the GEM to the GFS without mentioning the biggest difference which is the low crosses the U.K. the GEM doesn’t back up tue GFS at all it’s run shows that beautifully.

also day 9 GEM 

[IDO]

 frosty ground

Looking at that African/Iberian plume, getting anything cold from there seems tough. Look where the real cold is:

Just a slither of cool uppers, and Europe is mostly mild.

[frosty ground]

 IDO

we don’t tend to get our cold spells from Africa so that’s not really an issue. Atlantic running into a block with cold air in place…… could be fun, gone by the morning mind.

and yet the GEM is vastly different to the GFS

[swfc]

 frosty ground i think ido knows that in regard to the air and its source

[frosty ground]

another low about to run into cold air over the U.K.

And not at all like the GFS

[frosty ground]

FI GFS find a route to cold 

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst it is the worst solution the GFS does squeeze the best out of the outcome due to the fact that the first band of snow fizzles out before it turns back to rain. The UKMO looks to have been miles off with the low tracking further south. It seems to be a case of hoping in regard to the timing of the front. There is no point having the snow overnight and it being washed away by dawn for example.

[Jordan S]

Seems to be too much “what happened to the blocking that people said would happen” sort of  posts, colder outlook is still favoured, just the exact evolution and timeframe is now in question is all and yes it may be as unclear as previously thought, Gfs especially varied with its output, but it seems to always make a meal out of sliding lows under weak blocks to our northwest.

 

North midlands, north wales northwards still most likely to see a period of snow than further south.

Will give an update tomorrow or Wednesday

Edited February 5 by Jordan S

[IDO]

For those lost in the one-liners and to and froing, I summarise that there are two events:

Event 1/ The front moving north on Thursday will dump snow in the Midlands to the N England region.

1.1/ UKMO has downgraded this versus its 0z run, hence the "fail".

Event 2a/ The EC stalls that front and somewhere may get considerable dumping before pushing the cold south. This stops much of the melt and puts most of the UK in cold uppers by Sat/Sun.

Event 2b/ The GFS sweeps the cold uppers away and melts any laying snow.

Event 2c/ Somewhere between GFS and EC:

2c.1/ like UKMO closer to EC 0z but not as good

2c.2/ like GEM, closer to GFS but not as bad.

There is no point looking further than that, as entropy is high.

 

 

[Bricriu]

 nick sussex

The ECM will probably move towards the GFS  as the UKMO has.  I wouldn't  trust the UKMO for the weekend after this climbdown. It's annoying  how the worst scenario  nearly always seem to verify. Well nothing has verified yet, but the form horse looks  like a snow to rain event at best. That doesn't really interest me.

[frosty ground]

 IDO

good summary 

[Penguin16]

 IDO so all in all we don’t have a clue so best to untwist those knickers for a day or two yet. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs mean not bad at day 7 probably rather more cool then cold..but we can work on it!

[Cold Winter Night]

UKMO 168h preparing for Scandi height rise, similar to many EPS members at that lead time.

Really strange emo-posting this afternoon .

Based on previous runs and ensembles, we were expecting Northern heights developing Day 8-15, not before.
You still see GFS and GEM doing that!

So I don't get the 'throwing of toys' at all.
Giving up on the rest of winter, because the models don't suddenly show at Day 5 what was not expected before Day 10? Come on.

[damianslaw]

As anticipated I said it will be an exhausting day model watching - fully expected model run variance causing many to become frustrated - in these set ups near timescale forecasting is the only way.. i.e. wait until Wednesday for clarity 24 hrs ahead and even then expect things to pan out different than forecast. I'm saving my energy at present.

[MJB]

UK 144

UK 168

Nothing wrong with this output 

[nick sussex]

 Cold Winter Night

The transition to a block was easier from the original outputs . Now a lot more has to go right . 

Given the recent track record we do seem to be constantly chasing better outputs which remain marooned in FI .

[swfc]

So after looking at the mo today and giving an average assessment imo there is nothing unusual or any real lead on where the nhp is heading. "low gate" aside i cant see any strong signal for any very cold/extended or indeed wintry weather. Im not sure looking at the strat at 10pha is gaining traction. Hopefully theres an uptick in any blocking after a transient ridge but speculation can be a downfall without the subsequent data 

[Ali1977]

I’ll hang on to these images from the latest METO forecast - hopefully the ECM follows that 

[Cold Winter Night]

 nick sussex

It's steadily coming closer in time.
Take the 360h GEFS mean 4 days ago vs GFS Op today for the same lead time:

Fits nicely.

There is strong forcing towards Northern blocking going on. That is not depending on a Low passing the UK 100 miles further North or South.
Of course exact location, orientation etc will matter eventually, but we're not in that phase yet.

And all the complaining is mainly about a GFS run that has, say, 80% of the British isles with a snow cover at one time, with room for upgrades left. Beggars can't be choosers, isn't that the saying?

There are times for complaining about "winter", today isn't one of those times.

[DEYS(Kent)]

GFS Op is a massive outlier in the short term.

[MJB]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

So after looking at the mo today and giving an average assessment imo there is nothing unusual or any real lead on where the nhp is heading. "low gate" aside i cant see any strong signal for any very cold/extended or indeed wintry weather. Im not sure looking at the strat at 10pha is gaining traction. Hopefully theres an uptick in any blocking after a transient ridge but speculation can be a downfall without the subsequent data 

GloSea5: Met Office seasonal prediction system

Apart from this, which is as good a signal as any