Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[andy989]

 Mcconnor8 Sorry I meant if it goes too far south and I miss the moisture completely (past experience) But yes you’re correct with regards to northerly corrections too. But as @Jackski4states above there’s enough room for another 100 miles or so south. Again, IMBY 

Edited February 5 by andy989

[Eskimo]

Significant shift towards the ECM with the snow line.

[Jackski4]

 andy989 wouldn’t be surprised for it to shift another 150/200 miles south and for us to still be in the sweet spot mate from an in our back yard perspective I’m not too far north of you. GFS correcting the snow line towards ECM now. I think ECM has it pretty much nailed, and wouldn’t expect it to sink too far south initially for us to miss out. Only 3 days away now.

[MattStoke]

 Lukesluckybunch Yep.

[frosty ground]

 

when you see a boundary that tight it could only mean lots of PPN rain or snow 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Midlands across to east Anglia..looking decent!

[Eskimo]

GFS still blowing it up like a balloon though which has been pretty steadfast. Any snow across lower ground of Wales and England will melt quite quickly. 

Edited February 5 by Eskimo

[Jackski4]

GFS still over blowing up the LP in my opinion, it’s only just come back to ECMS opinion regarding Thursday. Give it a couple days to change I say.

[Drifter]

 Lukesluckybunch Still going to blow up and head north by the looks of it

[CoventryWeather]

Sizeable 50-75 mile shift south on the GFS. I'm expecting a little more from it on the 18z. 

Perhaps a mid between the ECM and UKMO. Unless the UKMO moves a tad northwards which is...annoying! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

GEM looks to be taking it South also!

[Drifter]

In fact at 102hrs it’s identical to the 6z. 

[Ice Day]

UKMO and GFS at 96

 

[Mcconnor8]

UKMO does look further North than the 0z run noticeably and a more rounded low.

[CoventryWeather]

UKMO at 96

[Drifter]

 CoventryWeather Much better than GFS because it’s taken the low centre to the east of the UK. 

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

UKMO does look further North than the 0z run noticeably and a more rounded low.

Provided it moves east of the UK (which it has), it shouldn't be a problem.  The 120 will be telling

[swfc]

Good grief 50/70 mile southward corrections on a low due on Thursday causing discussion . Is it that critical in regard to the mo?? 

[E17boy]

This is really becoming interesting now. We have an ongoing situation evolving could the South out of all ofds pointers eventually come into the game. I work in Milton Keynes a little more shift south will do. It is going to be an interesting evening of output 

[frosty ground]

the issue remains with the GFS, it can’t get the centre of the low to the east of the U.K. movement but not enough, compare that to UKM and even the icon. gFS is on its own. 

[Drifter]

 E17boy do you really want transient snow? The interest for me is we need the low to move away east to allow the more interesting blocking to the north and west to happen. The GFS solution is not great for the long term. 

[frosty ground]

 swfc Yes for several reasons.

 

the position of the low determines where the boundary between two air masses will be. That’s very important 

the shape of the low determines rain or snow over that 150 mile shift.

the track amid that low could determine the weekend weather should the GFS be right it will be milder and wetter.

Model thread is for model discussion therefore it’s the correct location for such discussion.

happy to help

[mountain shadow]

 frosty ground like a dog with a bone.

Cannot be right surely?

[Eskimo]

Snowline very similar on latest GEM but flattens the low more so than the GFS. Who knows what's going to happen. 

Edited February 5 by Eskimo

[frosty ground]

 mountain shadow

it could be, but the evidence available suggest it won’t be