Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[MJB]

44 minutes ago, Drifter said:

my money would be on an exceptionally mild spell rather than a deep cold spell

Completely against the MET, brave man 

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy

If this is as far as it goes and then it just reforms then we're in trouble, but if splits far and wide eventually with a 1000 mile + ridge separating the daughter vortices with one in Siberia and the other in Canada, while it may delay the cold a short while but could mean a real sting in winter's tail and i know not what you want but a write off for the first half of spring in terms of outdoor activities (barring skiing) and with a Euro's year throw the football season into chaos.

Edited February 6 by feb1991blizzard

[Jason M]

 MJB Not massively brave IMHO. Very real possibility of a plume of very warm air from the South over the next week or so. GEFS at around day 8/9 are hinting at it and last nights ECM was a good example.

[Bricriu]

 bluearmy so a repeat of what happened with the last SSW is likely. Blooming fantastic.  The story of this winter  if it pans out like that.  

[Mcconnor8]

Snow boundary for Thursday per the UKMO 12z.

[phil nw.]

An early glance at the gefs height anomalies out to T180 clearly shows a change to the current pattern to a more blocked outlook.

 

Atlantic trough cut off as the jet weakens and European/Uk ridging north towards the high latitudes.

It may take a while to get the cold from that but often this is a route to northerly blocking. 

[Bricriu]

 MJB  Jason M

Yes, but the UKMO has been wrong a lot this year. It wouldn't surprise if they change their outlook again. We were supposed to be in easterlies at one stage according to them

[Spah1]

 Harveyslugger No they didn’t. They clearly showed the most likely path into France 2 days out with the small possibility it could clip Southern England. 

[Mcconnor8]

 Spah1 Yep this is correct, and it did get about 5 miles offshore so very close.

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

So, I believe we're experiencing a case where the process that encourages highs to build across northern Europe generally is arriving at just the wrong moment from the perspective of those seeking a quick descent into notably cold, snow-inclined UK weather.

Yet another example of something placed wrong, with the wrong timing this winter. I really do feel for those in central and southern England who are still fairly snow starved in recent years. The best option these days for those who want to get a snow fix is to travel outside the UK or even to Scotland if you time it well, that seems to be the only option...

We'll probably end up with a highly -NAO and Greenland high conducive to cold in the UK later in March or April, but it would be too late to bring anything long-lasting. Rotten luck.

Edited February 6 by Metwatch

[MJB]

 Jason M You mean before the Easterly sets up?

 

Scandi en route as per the Control

Edited February 6 by MJB

[Froze were the Days]

The GFS 12z det run is ridiculous...if that was anything close to the mark we could be staring down the face of the mildest February. Little or no action happening on the near continent at all (as per in the summer)...half the problem when we need to see lows spill eastwards rather than fill to act as a trigger to get some westwards retrogression of what cold there is.

[Jason M]

 MJB We may well get an easterly. Its unlikely to be a cold one though.

Edited February 6 by Jason M

[sheikhy]

 Mcconnor8 yup and its further south again!!!!

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB Don't think we're getting an Easterly out of that Control run sadly.

[MJB]

 Jason M well it won't be a warm one, that I am sure 

 Mcconnor8 Probably a Northerly eh?

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB Maybe, but so far into FI not much point paying any attention to it, just as much chance of getting this from the OP.

[Jason M]

 MJB  Look, I hope your right, but as we stand now an insipid easterly is about the best we can hope for. It may not feel toasty at ground level but if frost and 6/7c by day floats your boat that's fine.

 

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard no run has done that high up 

that op is wierd in that at 10 hpa it splits and then rejoins whereas at 30 and 50 hpa it looks like it’s headed back and then stays well split. That could be down to the trop Atlantic ridge upwelling late on. If so, given that all the ens develop that ridge, maybe we could take the risk! 

[MJB]

 Jason M I'd stick with the MET rather than believe each GFS OP run, until they change their wording, a colder spell is on the way

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB

Unfortunately the full ensemble set is very depressing, the worry is that by the time we do get any blocking it will be March already and the cold won't have much bite or longevity to it, honestly I expect the MET to change their wording sooner rather than later.

Edited February 6 by Mcconnor8

[bluearmy]

Geps mean not great late week 2. Could be a few clusters and the mean is a mess 

[AO-]

It looks like the GFS is an alcoholic. One crazy run after another with only a few sensible ones inbetween. Also the Swapping of the complete ensemble hasn't been shown by other models. GFS is al over the place and what it comes up with latest is just ridiculous. Let's see what EC comes up with next. 

The 12z

The 06z

[Stephen W]

@bluearmy things seem to be trending in the wrong direction. You are hinting this could be a response to the SSW? 

[Rob 79812010]

All the talk about getting colder through middle to late Feb from all the credible forecasters looking very odd given the output.