Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Sky Full]

 Lynxus

Yes - GFS 6Z has a promising pattern developing between 19th and 22nd February…Greenland High in place and a.cold pool of air swooping down from the North East…..

  
 

Could be a great early sighting of a late February cold spell,  or it could be complete red herring.   We will know by tomorrow…..

[bluearmy]

 Sky Full tomorrow ?  We won’t know by tomorrow re that NH pattern post day 12  …… 

[Climate Man]

 bluearmy probably means regarding continuity. There hasn't been any and so if it's still showing it might be worth noting. 

[AO-]

 Sky Full

I wouldn't take this one too literally. Even though it is the right track the GFS is on now, I think the operational is too far (South) east with the block. Notice the EPSs for f.i. Manchester. Personally I expect the block to be more over western Russia/Scandinavia with more of an northeasterly rather than an Easterly flow. This has great implications for the "northerly" flow later on. If the Atlantic goes flat (or shows a southerly jet) a hp over the entire Northern Atlantic may emerge with hp over both Scandinavia and Greenland. 

Edited February 6 by AO-

[Rain All Night]

 Ali1977 You would expect that as the output data from the ARPEGE is the input data for the AROME, similar to how the output data from the UKMO is the input data for the UKV.

[Battleground Snow]

06z ECM with a 20 mile shift south for Thursday 

Every little helps

Added it here @sheikhy

Edited February 6 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow it does mate trust me!!you got the 00z for comparison for same time?!!

[minus10]

Well here we are again...snowlines ..20 or 50 miles north/south ......

...however gfs 6z fi interesting as others have said it does show the pattern change as highlighted by the seasonals and the anomalies...

....that R word again...RRRet...so although the next day or so still uncertainty abounds maybe this is one of those occasions where fi is more certain than the immediate...well...a little...perhaps ?..

 

[Dennis]

 

[Chesil View]

And the gfs 06z  throws a bone to the great majority of the UK who will miss out on the boundary line snow tomorrow.

As others have stated it is very much in line with the long held seasonal view and the current background signals.

However one can't help but feel we've seen it all before.

Time will tell.

Edited February 6 by Chesil View

[Lukesluckybunch]

Really can't wait for the 12z guys...intrigued too see where that low goes..late weekend into next week!I have a feeling next week could be pretty awsome!

[Marting]

 Dennis This ties in nicely with METO extended outlook just published out to day 15, snow showers from east.  Meets ECM and GFS roughly in terms of way forward 

[Mcconnor8]

 Chesil View At this point I think everybody is fed up of post day 7/8 charts this Winter which don't materialise so majority won't pay attention until anything interesting is at day 5/6, this really has been a tedious Winter in that regard so I don't blame them. Now we only have a few weeks of proper Winter left anyhow so can't get any more pushbacks on good charts if they do start popping up again.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 bluearmy indeed Nick there is complete agreement on this week!

 

BFTP

[Dennis]

AO 6-2

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Very detailed outlook discussing the dynamics from this point and extending for the majority of February 🌨🌨🌨️️🌩

 

 

[Chesil View]

 Mcconnor8

I couldn't agree more. It is around this point that if we havent had a nationwide "cold and snowy spell of at least several days duration that people's endurance and enthusiasm begins to wane.

The channel low in January was particularly frustrating in that regard as I could literally see the snow clouds sat offshore from my coastal location. 

As you say let's see that 06z set up within 5/6 days and then raise an eyebrow. 

For now its just a bunch of pixels on a screen even if it does broadly agree with latest meto extended update and the background signals.

Edited February 6 by Chesil View

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON slightly more negative tilted..at 30h

[Battleground Snow]

 Lukesluckybunch 40 mile shift south with the zero isotherm line at 39 hours, pretty significant at that range 

Edited February 6 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow massive upgrade and south easterly undercut still ongoing at lunchtime!!

[Mcconnor8]

 Battleground Snow Shows how far we have to go with modelling when they are all over the place at just 48 hours out 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

40 mile shift south with the zero isotherm line at 39 hours, pretty significant at that range 

Central.areas the sweetspot!

[Battleground Snow]

 sheikhy

Those warnings will need readding if the rest of the 12z follow suit.

Just a shame it won't hang around for long

[Ali1977]

METO délayed their deep dive video till 1639, I wonder if they need to see those 12z first 

Edited February 6 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

The small changes early on are gone by end day 3. So it may be a slightly slower advance of the mild air pre T48 but it soon catches up