Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, AO- said:

Yes, it certainly is. If only there is cold available. Of that I'm not so sure. Mild air is sent towards the Russian border. 

In a ideal world we would prefer the low further southeast..if we get a easterly it won't be cold initially..maybe take a couple a days,but a northeasterly would be very cold!with that dense cold air over scandi

[sebastiaan1973]

 AO- In Dutch we say 'voorgeschiedenis'. The setting before we get an easterly is indeed not good for cold later on.

[Snowyowl9]

So we are getting there slowly backtracks and the average GFS run..

[bradymk]

Thursday snow still looking good for N Wales, NW / N England and probably parts of Ireland and The Midlands too. Clearly some IMBY with this, but could be a significant event for many, particularly if you have elevation in these areas. The cold hanging on for longer too on the GFS than it’s previous runs - @ Friday 7pm, GFS had +3c 850’s Newcastle on yday 00z, whereas -5c 850’s for the same time on todays 00z

Certainly an improvement from the GFS this morning for end of the weekend / early next week too.

Looking at Friday on todays 00z GFS, the low is a better shape compared to yesterdays 00z.

today 00z

 vs 

Less of a bowling ball, more elongated which results in colder air in the north on Friday vs yesterday, colder air remaining over Scandi longer through the weekend and then a colder feed moving back south down through Ireland and into Wales / SW behind the low. Some persistent snow showing now on Sunday for parts of Ireland too.

Sunday 850s from today 00z

 vs 

Moving into Monday, this all results in a better chart for early next week than yesterday too.

Today

 vs 

Despite the clear climb down from some of those recent ECM / UKMO op runs, the GFS has certainly moved as well. More positives than yesterday morning I’d say and that’s forgetting the potential sig snow event Thurs / Fri. I imagine if those precip charts were just 100-200 miles further south it would be a complete different vibe in here, regardless of the mid term outlook. Good luck to all those further North  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Snowyowl9 said:

So we are getting there slowly backtracks and the average GFS run

Not bad for Scotland...

[nick sussex]

The UKMO continue to modify their raw data at close range so still have low confidence in their op runs as can be seen by the latest T72hrs fax chart.

Ironically the Euros are now less snowy than the GFS re the stalling front .

The issue with any easterly is the previous low drama has blown a lot of the cold away from most of Europe. There is some over Scandi but the set up can’t latch onto that early enough because of the slow moving limpet low .

We do at least arrive to some form of easterly in both the ECM and GFS and from there a chance to retrogress the high with some colder air dropping south to the east.

This seems a safer  evolution than trying to develop a high first to the nw as in the GEM .

Anyway this earlier low drama must be nerve shredding for those in the high risk area .

The only benefit of being this far south is it’s less stressful , just plain old rain here ! 

[AO-]

 Lukesluckybunch

I think this can be resolved "easily" when the shortwave tracks east rather than linger around the UK it tracking northeast. And about that northeasterly: let's hope we dont have to wait until april for that. 

[E17boy]

 Lukesluckybunch Yes I touched on this yesterday and was hoping that eventually we will start to see a shift in the models towards high pressure setting up in Scandinavia and then easterly to northeasterly winds developing.

This morning at long last there are now the first hints of maybe this dream moving in the right direction of becoming reality. It is still far out but as mentioned by a few on here tentative sights now appearing. I do hope this is a new trend as we have been led up the garden path many times chasing phantom easterlies. It is still far out until we don’t see this in the reliable best to hold firm.

Also some have shown concern that it may not be a cold easterly as little cold to tap into to. I totally agree with this but once we can establish this flow there is hope the bitter cold air from the east will finally have a chance to push west ( all depends on how much energy we have and a lot of other factors) but this is my wishful thinking that although initially this flow may not have the cold element it will in time introduce much colder air from the east. All hopeful thinking let’s see how things pan out.  
 

If we are lucky I am sure eventually with this flow in time snow showers will make stage but that is a long way out yet let’s get the pattern set up first.

tegards
 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

18 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

So we are getting there slowly backtracks and the average GFS run..

Cold rain for just about all ! The 850 temperatures don't support anything wintry ,except on this chart the top of Scotland over high ground

[nick sussex]

The MOGREPS show 7 runs with an east or ne flow next week .

We certainly don’t want the UKMO op to verify at day 7 . Indeed the divergence at that point is perhaps getting less airtime because of the low drama . 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Cluster 1 demonstrates what has rather gone wrong with the output in the last couple of days, to build the high lat block, the ridge is through the UK, which leaves a build up of heights to the south and a lot of warm air that has to be shifted later.  Cluster 2 has this further west, and cluster 3 further west still which is much better - low heights retained to the south and the block taking shape near Iceland.

T264+:

Clusters 1 and 4 make a decent fist of getting a northeasterly in by day 15.  Cluster 5 goes a bit west-based.  Cluster 3 holds some promise, cluster 2 leaves the block poorly orientated.  Given clusters 1 and 4 total 23 members, I would say chances of getting a decent cold evolution within the next two weeks about 50/50 at the moment.

Edited February 6 by Mike Poole

[Paul_1978]

 winterof79 At least that’s at T+192, not T+384 like most other strat charts that get posted!

[Dennis]

thursday snow chart 

[CoventryWeather]

Icon's an improvement

Possibly a biggg improvement

Edited February 6 by CoventryWeather

[mountain shadow]

 Dennis Met Office have now added Northern Ireland to their weather warnings for snow  indicating the GFS is closer to where the snow line will be.

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Icon's an improvement

Possibly a biggg improvement

Better wrap around...isobars more horizontal..hopefully it slips southeast!straight easterly in the North Friday

Edited February 6 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[nick sussex]

 CoventryWeather

Yes the low is flatter and the cold air hangs on for longer in the north .

This low is causing major drama because very small changes to the structure can have a big impact on those in the risk area .

[Ice Day]

Well, it's a messy picture on the ops this morning.  It's difficult to see the direction of travel much beyond the end of the week.  As @feb1991blizzard said earlier, to underline the uncertainty, there's an almost 12c spread on the GEFS for just 54 hours!

One potential chink of light is a significant improvement on the GEFS out to 240 vs the 12z run last night

 

TIme is ticking though, we're not quite in the last chance saloon, but we're certainly on the approach.

[bluearmy]

 Mike Poole I’d chuck in cluster three aswell Mike (the control fwiw)

[CoventryWeather]

ICON is a good 60/70 miles further south for the 0C isotherm compared to the 00z. 

Another shift like that later could be interesting...

[nick sussex]

 CoventryWeather

Its a big upgrade moving forward as the UK low has detached from those low heights in south Greenland .

We want the low moving east or se and not north .

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON looking interesting at 102..it's trying it's best to develop a wedge north.of the low!sypnotically pretty good..but a real lack of cold over europe!

Edited February 6 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,charts chopping and changing with the progression of the Atlantic lows and their tracking across the UK,still great uncertainty in regards to snow line and how far the milder Atlantic air will push over the country.I can not remember such an uncertain ability to track these lows at such a short time period,Carol on BBC just stated that these low pressures are causing big headaches to the meteorologist experts.

[Dennis]

icon6z 

NNE pressure rising

[Purga]

There's a very nasty dollop of ultra mild uppers over the Low Countries though ICON 6z, so any easterly would be toothless to say the least. The Tulips will be bursting into flower !

Edited February 6 by Purga