Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 SunnyG whatever you say lol.   

back to reality and i think that the ECM 0Z from this morning looks plausable.    

[WYorksWeather]

Both GFS and ECM 12z continuing to prolong the warm spell.

 

[WYorksWeather]

Final post for tonight, but worth posting yet another anomalous warm run - this one a near record-breaker from the 12z ECM, P33. Just a mere 28C. First 30C of the year anyone (in practice, with usual under-reading)?

Again, not to be taken too seriously! But you never know...

[sunny_vale]

GFS 00z brings us a mixed but warmish week, better in the East. Then Sunday low pressure attempts to engulf the UK but is pushed back by a series of rebuilding high pressure (FI).

ECM 00z similar to the end of the week, then high pressure starts to nudge in over the weekend with flabby high pressure spreading out over the UK from then onwards.

[Mike Poole]

Good runs this morning in the 8-10 day timeframe.  ECM, GFS and GEM all have high pressure over or near to the UK. I think GEM is the pick of them, clearly showing the transition from unsettled to settled around next Sunday:

 

[Alderc 2.0]

One of these two is going to be very wrong for a weeks time, let’s hope it’s gfs! 
 

GFS 

ECM

[ANYWEATHER]

Gfs for next weekend ,unsettled, Ecm ,settled .....very stark differences ,in just a few days really. Hopefully Ecm is correct, and hoping this mornings good  runs from  ecm continue ,☺

[joggs]

 ANYWEATHER laughable differences at that timeframe.

[SunnyG]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Well, I have the evidence of the past 6+ months in my favour. But sure let's pretend the models forecasting decent weather are reliable

GFS seems to agree with me...

Edited April 28 by SunnyG

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 SunnyG GFS are being a non compliant outlier here as the NOAA 6-10 dayer is ridge orientated.   Its time we had @MattHback on here if he isn't too busy and to shed some light on everything.   He could also tell us on the GLAAM situation currently as well.   

[Scorcher]

 SunnyG The ECM has the consistency from yesterday. Only subtle changes today whereas the GFS is all over the place as usual.

[SunnyG]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Well I am sure you are right and I am wrong. Time will tell...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 SunnyG we need to use in my eyes @johnholmesmethodology as he turns his back on rogue op charts and focuses on anomolies instead, i reckon GFS have a glitch this morning as the ensemble mean probably doesn't support the op run.    

[damianslaw]

Just an observation about the near-term, a low pressure system that developed to our south is currently pushing north through east half of UK it then splits into two into a broad cyclonic low tomorrow, advects west then sinks back south to where it developed. Not often we see such synoptics, but if ever a time of year for low pressure to track on abnormal pathways its now. 

Edited April 28 by damianslaw

[Bats32]

GFS 6z is sticking with it's poor BH weekend. Let's hope it's not picked up on something.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Bats32 GFS is the maverick model as the others are backing a ridge orientated scenario.  I wouldn't trust it and would turn my attention to the anomolies instead.    Bet you the ensemble mean isn't supporting it.   

This maybe down to the demise of the PV with our final warming progged of the stratosphere, in actual fact we are meant to be having a negative AO/NAO may according to world climate service as I've mentioned on other posts.    

I think this may will have a number of things in common with may 2019 to be honest with you.    

[WYorksWeather]

Based on the temperature ensembles it looks like we are getting a more notable warmup into the middle part of next week. Beyond the bank holiday weekend a bit of a cooldown is forecast but a lot of uncertainty around that.

UKV 03z somewhat higher with the temperatures than the means shown above though - a spot 20C on Tuesday, and after a cooler day on Wednesday a spot 23C on Thursday. Usually worth adding a degree or so to these for the absolute maximum.

[danm]

Although the GFS is poor next weekend compared to the ECM, it still shows high pressure for the following week:

0z:

 

6z:

[danm]

The UKMO seems to back up the ECM with a nice weekend:

[Summer8906]

 danm Bit concerned about that col though, does that indicate a possible slow moving front?

[Rain All Night]

20 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 4 May (day 7) - bank holiday Saturday

Possible brief warmth on the bank holiday weekend, but plenty of ways for it to go wrong?

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 12 May (day 15)

Perhaps some anticyclonic activity over the UK around 9th May? Otherwise, not much to report.

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 5 May (day 7) - bank holiday Sunday

Discordance at day 7: GFS and AIFS are showing us what I meant previously about there being plenty of ways for the bank holiday weekend to go wrong, but the regular ECM shows us how it could go just right.

0z ensemble means, out to Mon 13 May (day 15)

Each ensemble prefers the take of its own deterministic run on how we will fare over the bank holiday weekend.

They start to agree again around 9th May on a resurgence of high pressure from the south, though it appears this could be followed once again by retrogression of high pressure into the Atlantic and another cold trough setting up to our east towards mid-May.

Edited April 28 by Rain All Night

[Cambrian]

A bit earlier than expected in working through, but the models sticking to the plot first hatched a fair few days ago, the ECM mean, as often, the pick of the bunch for illustration of the core evolution. 

As indicated before, here on the 0z, the European plume and Atlantic heights executing a pincer movement to the north of the UK and Ireland, severing the trough, isolating then releasing the cut-off low east through Europe…

…allowing the heights to ooze southwest out of Scandinavia, meeting heights extending northeast from the Azores, taken at face value adding to the hero status of the Azores high for being the rescuer of our spring.

However, it is rarely as simple as that, and the anomalies reveal the subplot, in the form of the underpinning of the change by the oft vilified (in spring at least) northern heights. 

Received a lot of bad press of late, but their persistent presence is ultimately central to the displacement of the trough and paving the way for establishment of the Azores ridge.

Distraction by the glossy pages of the GFS ops is understandable, but again at 6z, the balanced GEFS, here at day 10…

 

…is highly supportive of that same end storyline being developed by the ECM, in the promise of a neatly placed high pressure and some growing spring warmth as we enter the second week of May. 

[johnholmes]

 Addicks Fan 1981

I'll try and find the time to have a longer look at my usual charts and post later today.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 johnholmes have to say John that I won't react to op charts as that isn't my policy of looking at charts personally.   

Think its better to do a deeper dive if you see what i mean and the teleconnections posters including MattH and Tamara are greatly missed on here as their input is second to none.   

Regarding the anomolies they did indicate a lot of ridging and that will be where we win or where we lose effectively.     

[Metwatch]

 Alderc 2.0  Always concerns me slightly when GFS is the odd one out as in recent years I have noticed it ends up verifying better than the other operational model runs do in the 5-8 day time frame. The GEFS though still builds the high pressure in soon enough but whether next weekend is another write off or not we won't know for a few more days. Earlier the high pressure builds in, the better of course.

Thought I would also take a quick look at the AAM and GWO, at least the CFS forecasts (I haven't got access to the more "professional" charts unfortunately). But a slight rise is possible into the start of next month, so perhaps that is helping to bring about something more settled across north west Europe. However a drop is then forecast later next month, the GWO with it would head to the low phases of 1-2 if so, which i'm slightly worried if that would cause more northern blocking and trap a trough around the country's viscinity, encouraging a southerly tracking jet. Just a forecast though so prone to change.

 

MJO is at last going to progress through the Maritimes, and taking a gander at the ENSO neutral analogues for May, phases 3-5, that fits nicely with the forecast evolution of the low dropping to our south - south east, then high pressure moves in from the north / west at some point from next weekend.

Edited April 28 by Metwatch