Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[bluearmy]

 Dennis do you have the same chart for 100hpa??

[Purga]

 Dennis Please can you share?

[Dennis]

 bluearmy

[Lincs Observation]

Good Morning all

heres my two penneth on model outputs, some on here quite rightly in a normal situation referencing model outputs from years gone by as a guide to trying to work out potential outputs now, however I think now more than at any time in recent history this approach vary rarely give a viable conclusion. If you really think about it a model output in 2018 is never going to give viable clues now due to do many climate based changes for instance warming seas (slowing down of the Gulf Stream) erratic jet stream, rises in global temperatures due to global warming and other micro global phenomenon. 
Im not convinced that these variables are factored into models because the conditions are to prone to wild swings in short time phases.

We have seen many outputs interpreted in good faith by very knowledgeable individuals only to be undone in a relatively short time scale, the amount of times I even listen to experts from the Met saying they can’t pin down forecasts even two days away because the simply can’t predict a track of a system until the very last minute.

My thoughts are that any references to models from the past simply can’t be used as a tool to predict global weather patterns now as we are in a completely different and volatile place and I don’t know now how it will be done but a different approach is needed. The saving grace I suppose will be data collected now in the most volatile part in our climate history will eventually filter into outputs but could take time.

im no scientist just my thoughts for debate.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM  / GEM  looking to build Greenland high at 240 hrs yes it always seems to show something positive at that range then disappears,but at least it’s showing so something to encourage cold lovers.At least a dryer period looks positive after these low pressure systems leave are shores.

[mulzy]

The fat lady just about to get on stage.  The SSW is our last hope to save this dreadful winter.  Nothing to show in the EPS - probably not in range yet.

[warrenb]

 mulzy I expect the large lady has been on stage, warbled away and already departed. Charts show no sign of cold in the foreseeable, and will likely not going forward, I feel this winter is showing a fundamental shift in our weather patterns. One which the models and programmers are going to have to get to grips with.

[northwestsnow]

Really poor 00z outputs.

I hope we get some relief by means of a block if anything just to dry us out.

As far as" winter "is concerned however...

 

Edited February 8 by northwestsnow

[Met4Cast]

This is just awful

 

The SSW will likely come at a time of falling AAM as the MJO returns to the Indian Ocean, not particularly good timing for cold/blocking conditions to be a quick response.. 

[northwestsnow]

 Met4Cast

They are awful.

The really worrying thing is even with decent background signals we end up mild and wet,it's happening year in year out.

There is an elephant in the room ...

[feb1991blizzard]

 Met4Cast

True but if its a decent SSW then it could write off the SPV, surely AAM will rebound at some point during the next 30-40 days giving us another shot at some point.

[northwestsnow]

 feb1991blizzard

30 -40 days ??

You really are hardcore

 

[Ice Day]

Crikey, sounds like a few people need a hug in here! If it's really that bad for you, shut the laptop/App and come back in a few days!!!  Anyway, whilst the ECM ensembles are throwing out some decent options around days 10-12, I'm not yet ready to throw the towel in.

ECM Control at Day 11

The mean also showing more PV across to the Siberian side vs its earlier run

There's no denying that it's a long-shot, but with 3 weeks of Feb to go (plus I'll give it the first week of March), I'm not yet ready to wave the white flag.

 

[bluearmy]

 Ice Day the eps at day 12 show plenty of very disrupted and split vortex’s 

but few have rolled a double six as yet 

Edited February 8 by bluearmy

[Matt Jones]

 feb1991blizzard I'd go along with anything up to late March even if it doesn't hang around too long anything is better than the rubbish we've dealt with in the so called winter months in recent years, get the right synoptics March can deliver just as much as January, even better usually here with lower North sea temps less moderation. Hard to see where it's coming from the latest outputs but still time for sure.

[warrenb]

I think you can have all the synoptic eye candy you like, but fundamentally if there is no cold air around, it ain't going to get cold. Charts at the moment are classic example of this.

Edited February 8 by warrenb

[Ice Day]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the eps at day 12 show plenty of very disrupted and split vortex’s 

but few have rolled a double six as yet 

Indeed Blue, I'd prefer the double 6's to come in the semi-reliable rather than day 10+.  But given the state of the PV, hitting the jackpot is not an impossible task!

[MJB]

The basket of straws is emptying rapidly, but there is still hope. 

[bluearmy]

 Frustrating to see the trough in op runs showing a propensity to stick a southern runner into the mix next week  - if we’d managed to keep hold of reasonably cold air aloft then who knows 

hey ho 

[IDO]

The GFS is a hard watch with its only intent to clear the cold further away from our shores, making it unlikely for cold pre-D14. D9-10:

No upstream or Arctic help on this run in the semi-FI.

Edited February 8 by IDO

[adrianh]

March delivered over 30cm of snow to parts of Sheffield last March so it certainly feasible if you get the right synoptics.

As for the current charts, it's not a horrendous zonal train of lows crossing the Atlantic - the pieces just aren't falling for us which is unfortunate but things can change quickly.

Edited February 8 by adrianh

[Cambrian]

Day 4 / 5 looking a bit chilly on the 0z ECM ensemble but otherwise above average temperatures for the foreseeable.

However, the very definite southerly track of the jet stream on the 0z ECM op - often heading into Iberia - would suggest that the mild outlook is a fairly precarious one. 

 

The day 10 mean anomaly gives the impression of being very blocked through the eastern Atlantic, good heights to the north and south but the heights through Western Europe are only marginally positive. The Atlantic trough will eventually try to head for the gap, but ironically looks that it will be blocked by the heights to the south.

   

0z EPS shows that the low is no longer being directed from Greenland, rather from a centre over Newfoundland, where the heights are lowest, all the while pumping heights north into Greenland and Iceland.

0z GEPS sends a ridge up through Iceland into Greenland at day 12, with a surface high over the Greenland plateau and a notable polar high.

Along with low pressure over the Barents Sea, this is feeding a cold northerly flow down into the Norwegian Sea. That is how we can get cold air back into Europe. The 0z ECM control is at something similar. Don’t worry about modelled uppers at this range, a path to insanity.

  

The Atlantic low can’t go north and is being blocked from disrupting southeast into Spain, so just stalls over the Atlantic, leaving the UK and Ireland at the southern edge of an Arctic block with easterlies or northerlies an option from there. 

The resilience of the southerly running jet stream and looking out for the Atlantic low to eventually pump enough heights north are the main aspects to watch here.

Edited February 8 by Cambrian

[February1978]

Beyond the next day or so outputs are still poor – and no real cold anywhere near for at least a week plus. We are only just about still in play, and probably need a favourable SSW to help out.

Meanwhile 15mm rain at 5c here…… what if……..

[Jacob]

Strong SSW right there 

 

[Met4Cast]

 feb1991blizzard

The MJO runs on a cycle of roughly 60-90 days, it won’t be back into favourable cycles again until April (ish). 

AAM tendency likely won’t return in any meaningful way until late March (assuming a coherent MJO cycle). 

So in a word.. no.