Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[northwestsnow]

 Don yeah Ive had enough now.

Only thing keeping me remotely  interested is EC46.

Each to their own but we need super cold uppers by mid Feb and well,its not going to happen.

The  sheer volume of rainfall  locally this Winter is just diabolical.

 

 

[Pixel]

 

Deleted  <embarrassed emoticon>

Edited February 8 by Pixel
sorry not able to post meteo links

[raz.org.rain]

 offerman Sod's law aye It truly would be remarkable if we get the right cocktail for Arctic incursions in summer again. I'd like to think it's very unlikely to happen this year, given the persistence of Atlantic-fed mild SW'lies to roll in and dominate. They sure have been unusually and frustratingly persistent this winter, I wonder if this can be partially attributed to the rather recent termination shock phenomenon, 2020 onwards? I'd expect the consequences of that will be a thorn in the side of forecasting our weather and continue the theme of absurd North Atlantic SSTs.

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Not trying to be unduly negative here, but I don't see how we get a 2018 repeat out of this even if you assume all the dice fall in our favour to get a similar synoptic.

I believe this is the elephant in the room, really. The aforementioned effects of termination shock have become a considerable factor since 2018. When we pair that with the fact that much of the northern hemisphere is currently experiencing above average temperature anomalies, I'm not seeing where a significantly cold incursion could arrive from as things stand. However, this could change. It has to be said that "above average" anomalies can still be comparatively cold when they're pushed into our corner of the world.

 

This won't be a popular conclusion, but the trends in the model outputs suggest to me that a southerly element will continue to be the more influential element in our weather for the foreseeable. That could work out to be favourable if the cold synoptics push up against it in just the right place. Potential snow? Never say never.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Dear oh dear..we can't seem to gain any momentum,it's one step for ward for steps back..the signal with blocking to our northeast has reduced significantly this morning!

[joggs]

 northwestsnow if ec46 is your only crumb of comfort, I'd start looking for warmth

Edited February 8 by joggs

[KTtom]

 Lukesluckybunch As many said last night, there isnt any cold to the east to tap into if we did get an easterly unfortunately..cold uppers can quickly form under high pressure over the continent in mid winter but not in March..2018 was an exceptional event. Not getting the excitement over a SSW late Feb unless you follow the strat avidly like Febblizzard ...im finding UKMO day 7 chart strangely appealing with a southerly flow and hopefully some sunshine... Certainly for my location, spring is rolling in..

[Lukesluckybunch]

always a hurdle!!ecm looking pretty flat at 120..that low over Iceland doing us no favours!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm leaves us in no man's land at 216...which way do we go something special from the north...or sinking heights?

Edited February 8 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Ali1977]

I think it’ll be a day of upgrades from here in, and I just have a feeling the SSW will deliver something pretty good for the U.K. , we are in a world of extremes regarding the weather -  so let’s top March 2013

 

ECM at 216 is trying!! 

[IDO]

It does look like we have a small window pre-D10 to get a quick pattern change. Before D10 we have upstream amplification of an Alaskan Ridge that migrates into an Alaskan high and moves towards the Arctic. The GEFS mean highlights this (D8-16):

The GEM (D10) and EC (D9) ops are similar:

The GFS op cannot retrogress or build heights to the NW and we end up with a stinker of a run:

The GFS mean supports EC/GEM so maybe the GFS is the worst-case option? The GFS control is more like GEM, but the London ens suggests the op has support ATM:

 

 

Edited February 8 by IDO

[bluearmy]

 IDO the gfs has a poor vortex split with an atlantic segment left to our west. This is the risk of the split ssw solution. We’ve had three decent results from the last five and the gefs mean is better than the op. 
 

I think the displacement solution won’t bring the scandi trough far enough south (for the majority of the populated U.K.) .  So we are probably at the mercy of the ssw dice roll for winter's last hurrah ……

[Kentspur]

CFS brings the beast home is this where ECM&co will eventually lead us hope so! No lack of cold pools there! Solidly -12c 850s across England and Wales. Only 13 days away  

[Dennis]

Good day all

winter in Norway has strenghten again this week

Edited February 8 by Dennis

[WINTRY WALES]

 Dennis Nor way will it ever happen on this island though  

[Dennis]

 WINTRY WALES

we have still some time to fix the charts on it 

 

[jules216]

What are the odds that after "European blocking" with Zero cold air to tap in to(ECMWF) like i said here weeks ago that post SSW reversal we will transfer to west based -NAO? Like it would matter anyway. I am last one here to desire cold in spring the ship has already sailed below 500m altitude. What a truly misserable second half of winter and truly as front loaded winter as it gets akin to LA Nina and not a backloaded winter like "EL Nino" what will the "experts" say now?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm mean disagrees with the op..not half as decent!

[Dennis]

on second half month .....AO block should build in 

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch i don’t think we should be expecting anything cold in the next 10 days, all eyes on the last 10 days of Feb as the SSW starts to manifest itself lower down - we need some luck 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

don’t think we should be expecting anything cold in the next 10 days, all eyes on the last 10 days of Feb as the SSW starts to manifest itself lower down - we need some luck 

Yea..weve been here many times before putting the cold off,delaying it..one day we will hit the jackpot.......maybe!

[Dennis]

For the knowlwdge of an SSW: when it has happened the downward time is  (3-5) 4-6 weeks (500hpa charts)

so the forseen Febr SSW isnt to this month weather ideas

 

[SLEETY]

ecm day TEN keeping the fading dream alive

[bluearmy]

Weatherbell is down this morning. Looks like the geps are late on meteociel too

the gefs were a curates egg 

mean not far from something exceptional but at two weeks range 

the eps clusters don’t look too good 

I guess pre ssw modelling unreliability should be our hope here. there are some more than interesting gefs members so hopefully we can roll the ssw dice and get a qtr like those show 

 

 Dennis I appreciate this is your area dennis but if we have a strongly coupled atmosphere then we would likely see a trop response within days (as 18z showed yesterday) 

but also more affects in March as you post

[Dennis]

 bluearmy i hope it with you on that 

[AO-]

 Dennis

31 minutes ago, Dennis said:

For the knowlwdge of an SSW: when it has happened the downward time is  (3-5) 4-6 weeks (500hpa charts

That is really a lot and I tend to disagree a little as many examples have shown that this time lag is not always the case. I recall the SSW happening at the 21st of december 2012, which played out in the second week of January 2013 (or was that dumb luck?). The spell in March 2013 was definitely the consequence of that SSW. Of the SSW in 2009 I'm not so sure and neither am I of the Canadian warming in 2010. Other examples happened before my interest in model watching. 

Edit: the SSW of February 2018 had a lag time of about 2-3 weeks I guess.

Edited February 8 by AO-