Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

Day 9 looking good gfs!

[bluearmy]

This op develops quite a strat split so I’d assume we’ll see a decent trop pattern in far off fi 

[Ladyofthestorm]

I have to admit I took a step back from the models on early February. 

I had a look at the ensembles for my area and it finally looks like the GFS is figuring it out the SSW event ramifications later on. 

[Daniel*]

Good demonstration GFS 18z with right amplified pattern how quickly things can change in terms of cold air availability. This is a difference of 5 days. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

could be an extraordinary end to 18z. LP over Iceland to drop SSE, Atlantic ridging to Greenland and linking to arctic HP?

 

BFTP

[WYorksWeather]

Don't have time tonight to wait for the rest of the ensemble but the 18z GFS is a downgrade compared to the 12z up to day 10. Any cooldown even to near average delayed to beyond day 10 now. Compare 12z (left) to 18z (right) below.

[Don]

 WYorksWeather That's a big change in the GFS ensembles between the two runs, with far less scatter up to day 10!

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z/6z deterministic runs, Fri 9th to Fri 16th (day 7)

I missed yesterday afternoon's runs, so I'm disappointed to come back and see these this morning, in particular the appearance of that potentially huge low off the coast of Newfoundland late next week. It seems there is an inclination for systems to be running from southwest to northeast, and there is no sign of the Scandi high that had been appearing on many recent ensemble runs. Unless that huge low pushes up some kind of ridge (see ECM and ICON), this doesn't look like a good spell of weather coming up - I had been expecting dry, if not cold.

0z/6z ensemble means, Fri 9th to Sat 24th (day 15)

Most of these (with GEM being the notable exception) at least want to lift the Atlantic away for a few days from about the 17th Feb, but that's a little disappointing given the significant height rises that were being shown just a day ago. There are still some ensemble members that want to offer height rises to the west or northwest later on, but the Scandi high is gone.

12z/18z deterministic runs, Sat 10th to Fri 16th (day 7)

This evening's deterministic runs are kind of boring and don't feel particularly worth commenting on... the only thing that strikes me is how everything seems to be moving from southwest to northeast. I would be interested to learn why that is.

12z/18z ensemble means, Sat 10th to Sat 24th (day 15)

After reaching "peak heights" around 19th Feb (perhaps a dry interlude), we deteriorate to mean Atlantic control around 21st Feb, but it's interesting to see the mean surface depression move to our eastern side after that - quite an eye-catching signal so late into these runs - along with a modest but appreciable signal for Atlantic heights.

Here's the hemispheric view of the ECM mean at day 15 - not bad:

Edited February 10 by Rain All Night

[Dancerwithwings]

35 minutes ago, Don said:

WYorksWeather That's a big change in the GFS ensembles between the two runs, with far less scatter up to date 10!

They’ll be forthcoming changes on the horizon over the next few days regarding model outputs….

[Daniel*]

The start of a colder cluster in late Feb in GEFS.

[KTtom]

Maybe a little consistancy showing for the last week or so of Feb with a UK high. Some much sought after sunshine on the cards. After that, as we've seen in Jan, always a chance this will migrate north west..will it happen in time for one last cold snap?? 

[Duane S.]

I must say I do find it a tad strange that we aren’t getting a few more outlandish super low 850s ensemble members in far FI. 

I’ve been critical of the continual ‘Iberian heights’ talk by some on here but yeah they do seem super stubborn this winter. I think that whilst CC has no doubt played its part, right now it’s probably the ENSO state that is main driver of it.

When you take the below strat signature into account + activity in the Pacific , I can’t help but think, surely, we will end up with a cold spell in the not too distant future. But in what has been the most frustrating winter I can remember, quite possibly not!

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

And there we are day 10 on the ecm..were the mildest part in europe..you couldn't make it up!

[carinthian]

Morning all. The GFS latter part of its latest run produces some weird and wonderful charts to end the last 3rd of this month. For example the jet profile chart below has the Mid -latidude jet heading towards the equator ! Meanwhile nearer to home the Mid-week fax chart shows a potential battle to develop across The British Isles as the Arctic air heads towards Scotland again and Sub Tropical behind warm front heads towards Southern England. Think it could end up an interesting week for you lot with some developments to the Northwest to watch.  More interesting than over here where winter is heading towards a zero ranking at the moment. 

 C

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch I'm betting it's at the high end Luke

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

26 minutes ago, MJB said:

I'm betting it's at the high end Luke

You have feeling for something colder?..it was something of a outlier towards the very end..but there's hardly a cold clustering now..the mean is pretty awful!

Edited February 10 by Lukesluckybunch
Addin

[Cambrian]

Difficult to pretend that the models are playing ball in terms of anything decisive. But what is going on is definitely fascinating.

I’m taking the 0z GEFS because it’s been great value this winter, and using the mean MSLP charts because we don’t show them enough. We’ve well and truly learned how to practice the virtue of patience, so let’s look at the next couple of weeks. 

Day 7 shows a long fetch southwesterly from the Azores, riding along the northern flank of the high pressure to the south, likely mild and very moist, the jet stream continues to water the meadows. Let’s move on.

But before we do - ironically, it’s that high pressure, another wave of Iberian heights, that begins the transition to another pattern. 

 

By day 10, it’s working north towards the UK and Ireland. Like over recent days, the highs modelled to be aligning during this period from Western Europe through the pole to the Bering Sea. 

It’s that “super-ridge” of high pressure that both holds the Atlantic at bay and as it moves west, makes room for the developing Scandinavian trough, and the establishment of a cold northerly sourced pattern by day 14. 

 

Fascinating pattern towards the end of the month, low pressure anomalies to the south, high pressure anomalies to the north, consistent with a mollified jet stream, weak and running far to the south, heading into North Africa, Western Saraha, Tropic of Cancer, around 23 degrees North. 

No great heights to the south at that stage and the entire pattern north of the jet stream is profoundly slack, it looks particularly challenging to model, and is very open to a much higher potential for surprise than normal. It’s at that stage that any modest bit of circulation out of the Arctic, that won’t even have started to develop yet, may well turn out to be more decisive in terms of the weather for northwest Europe. 

[blizzard81]

 Cambrian I do like your positivity and enthusiasm mate . I'm still not convinced the modelling is seeing all the pieces here. Or rather - they are seeing all the pieces but just don't know where they are supposed to fit. A little like an amateur playing with a jigsaw puzzle. 

Edited February 10 by blizzard81

[Penrith Snow]

 blizzard81 or to quote Eric Morecambe, the models are 'playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order'!   

[blizzard81]

 Penrith Snow Ha ha ha Indeed mate  

[MJB]

I for one am still hope of something cold last week of Feb early March, I am not defeated yet...................hey, what about a white Easter ? 

[Blessed Weather]

Back to model output discussion please. This is not the thread for discussing what's gone wrong with this winter. A new thread has been created:

Further off-topic posts will be disappearing.

Thanks.

[MJB]

This                                                                           to this 

      

Still hope 

 

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, upcoming ssw says we shouldn’t be taking too much from week 2 ens nwp until mid month output once it gets a handle on the switch 

I didn’t think the eps did a bad job in jan with the reversal at a high latitude. It’s surely the same issues for the nwp to handle.  But we’ll see within a week if there is a solid change in direction. 

[northwestsnow]

I was going to write an obituary on UK winters ..

Anyway, 

00z runs pretty much shutting the door on any High Lat blocking effecting us anytime soon, i for one absolutely do  subscribe to background drivers like ENSO ,SSTS qbo etc etc but after years of being here it's got to the point whereby any combo doesn't fit for uk winter cold.There is always ,well 99% of the time something that goes wrong.

If I had a pound for everytime the eps for example look amazing at day 10 to 15 then downgraded to zilch I'd be a millionaire.

Hopefully we can and will see cold spells but they are now becoming almost non existent.

I'm losing interest at a rate of knots,I'm only here in winter for the cold and to be honest it's becoming a waste of time ...