Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Harsh Climate]

For me at 200ft altitude, no -10 uppers or colder in an easterly no interest due to the time of year. 4/500ft up though -7/8s can produce a nice suprise

[IDO]

I have no idea what is going on with the ops. This morning, the GFS op is on a wild outlier. For London:

When many of the GEFS ens are moving milder than recent runs, the op produces a cold run! The mean remains similar to yesterday as the op has minimal support, D10:

The GEM mean is similar, but the op is not like the GFS. 

We see this morning's EC revert closer to its mean after the outlier 12z from yesterday:

We have learnt much this year about wintry charts in FI from the various ops to know that they have a habit of leading us up and down the garden path. Although solid mean support exists for the next ten days, we await if these random colder charts can gain some footing with consistency and ens support.

[Scandinavian High.]

Very exciting runs over night something wintery from east looks possible  or up garden path route

Edited March 1 by Scandinavian High.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Very exciting runs over night something wintery from east looks possible

It does look possible..still need some firming up from the ens..ukmo was brilliant this morning..ecm doesn't follow it,not bad for the north though!

[Alderc 2.0]

This is where the mean is utterly useless. Anything spring midness to a proper winter blast possible. 
 

[TillyS]

Am in Oslo then heading across the mountains tomorrow and up into the arctic circle next week. According to the GFS it’s likely to turn a tad cold over northern Norway:

Last night’s ECM was really brrrr :

 

[feb1991blizzard]

 northwestsnow

cop this then as well.

[winterof79]

Still very interested.

GEM 192z

GFS probable over doing it for the moment (in our vicinity)

UKMO 168z

[Jordan S]

So after 3rd-4th outlook seems to mostly be accurate from previous posts of mine, with the drier and milder spell over southern and eastern areas, extending further to our northwest for a short time, chilly nights though, remaining unsettled in far western parts at first ofcourse, particularly Ireland with south/southeasterly winds during 5th-8th with high pressures to our east and northeast.

The only significant change recently is the drier spell likely spreading to western parts by the 7th and more especially hanging on in the north beyond 7th-8th, with low pressure although still expected to move into southern and southwestern areas of England and Wales by around the 8th, it isn’t now likely to move into all areas, with Scotland and Northern Ireland remaining drier, though the fronts may just about reach northern England, Northern Ireland for a time producing hill snow before the precipitation moves south and fizzles out but more than likely further south than over these areas.

By the 10-12th..

High pressure ever so slightly more dominant to our north and northeast, and this higher pressure will probably be over Scotland and still to our northeast/north towards mid month with Scotland in particular seeing a continuation of drier weather with just the odd wintry shower,these drier conditions probably effecting Northern Ireland and northern England too by the 11th or 12th with wet and windy weather possible further south, though eventually looks like the low pressure’s influence in the south will lessen somewhat for a day or so and higher pressure taking hold more widely by the 12-14th, this ties in well with my previous thought of a possible hint of nationwide dry weather by mid month.

For this same time period as the drier conditions winds are expected to mostly blow from the southeast/eastsoutheast dragging in some milder air into the south, though not necessarily feeling milder in any wet weather. Perhaps some colder upper air temperatures of close to -10c briefly drawn from off the north sea northwestwards into the north during the drier spell here, especially northeast but any snow looks to be small and in the form of isolated showers.

A smaller risk ie 20-30%, a colder easterly for all could take place from the 10-11th with more significant snow showers into eastern areas in particular, drier for all at first if this where the case, increased chance of snow in southern parts as precipitation would move up from the south. This is low probability.

 

Just after mid month unsettled conditions are more likely more widely with east/northeast winds a more likely than southwesterly winds, bringing in somewhat colder air down from the northeast. Disturbances liable to form in the flow and travel southwards over northern and especially northeastern parts and although later in March by then, could produce significant lower level snowfalls to northern UK and on high ground in central, southern UK. Much wetter than average in the south increasingly likely once again as lows make another break for southern UK spreading precipitation northeast along with attempts of very mild air, Significant snow accumulations possible on the Scottish mountains in this period.

Edited March 1 by Jordan S

[northwestsnow]

 feb1991blizzard would love that in December

[Lukesluckybunch]

Have a feeling the ec op..will be on the milder side..

[nick sussex]

Chasing cold pools around a Scandi high . What fun ! 

We have been here before many times . Certainly I wouldn’t rule out something colder from the east or ne .

Regardless of the ECM op looking less enthusiastic this morning  the signal for high pressure to the east or ne remains .

 

[Mike Poole]

I think a stronger showing for the easterly on the ECM clusters T192-T240:

Both clusters 2 and 3 are now orientating the high more favourably, with the low initially SW taking a more southerly track, setting up an easterly flow in between.  Cluster 1 has the low too strong and the high poorly orientated and a mild flow for the UK.

[Lukesluckybunch]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regardless of the ECM op looking less enthusiastic this morning  the signal for high pressure to the east or ne remains .

 

It is especially hard for a decent easterly here in the uk..as many have said it's actually quite rare!what is usually the case is the main core of the cold gets diverted down into central and eastern europe!it can be incredibly frustrating here in uk

[Lukesluckybunch]

I know its a lesser model but the chart for me this morning is the icon 180!it would likely turn very cold after!

[Justin1705]

Gfs interested in some widespread show Sunday ? Has anyone else noticed this. And what’s up with the complete disagreement across models, in the short term? I’m just an occasional model viewer, just about now how to view them. But gfs has been suggesting snow this weekend for a while, then changing run by run. Probably won’t happen. But that’s widespread heavy snow if it does no?

[Don]

4 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Growing support for a post-SSW coldish E’ly IMO…what is it with March being the most wintry month these days?

Shifting seasons?  

[Rain All Night]

12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z ensemble means, out to Thu 15th (day 15)

The ECM and GEFS means generally suggesting the Atlantic failing to take back control after 6th/7th March, but still sitting close enough to interfere at times (GEFS more earlier on, ECM more later on).

12z deterministic runs, on Thu 7th (day 7)

Seems likely it will be dry for most or all of us on this day next week. Hallelujah.

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 8th (day 7)

Since everyone else is focusing on cold... dry spell probably looking good.

0z ensemble means, out to Sat 16th (day 15)

Looks like the Atlantic could be held at bay for at least a week... would be much appreciated.

Edited March 1 by Rain All Night

[Jordan S]

 Justin1705

The wintry precipitation moving north for later tonight into dawn much more likely I think, would say Gfs is off on one for Sunday, though it was backed by UKMO model a few days ago.. 

Though the UKv would suggest only snowfall for some high ground areas and rain to lower levels, tbh if its heavy then wouldn't rule out maybe some wintriness to lower levels before dawn, but that isn’t of any excitement to anyone who wants proper settling snow ofcourse, just simply explaining the output But snow falling is certainly lovely to see even with melting.
Interesting to see this appear and be in short timescale.

 

Edited March 1 by Jordan S

[Justin1705]

 Jordan S 

 

Thanks you for your reply. Yea upon checking other models there is no feature or if there is very light and in the North Sea. I would settle for falling snow at this point I’ll be keeping an eye on the feature moving north tonight in my area as I’m 550ft ASL, so when it’s snowing here its raining down the road thanks for your explanation, I appreciate it. Was some sleet today mixed in with the heavier PPN in luton. But only ice accumulation on my jumper, and obvious ice splats on my lorry windscreen. Good luck to all hoping to see some falling snow ( possibly ) tonight 

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

what is it with March being the most wintry month these days?

It isn’t…

[winterof79]

 Justin1705 WRF shows the system for Sunday

[MJB]

 Don Shifting seasons? Not really it's more common than people think

 

March 1970 Very Cold

April 1971 Heavy Snow late on

April 1973 NE snow at times

March 1974 Snow first few days 

March 1975 Snowy Easter

April 1978 Snow in places around 10th

April 1979 Snow in the first week

March 1980 some snow mid month

April 1981 second half snowy and cold 

April 1983 snowy Easter 

March 1984 Cold and cloudy occasional wintry spells 

March & April 1986 Cold and Snowy at times

March 1987 Cold heavy snow in places 

April 1989 Heavy snow in the South 

March 1995 Heavy snow in the Midlands 

March 1996 Easterly month snow in places 

April 2000  Snow in places Luton airport closed due to snow

March 2001 Cold Easterly Month , snow in places 

March 2006 prolonged Easterlies mid month cold, snow around 

April 2008 Snow in the SE first week 

March 2013 Very Cold snow around 

April 2016 Heavy snowfall in the North late month 

March 2018 Cold with snow 

April 2021 Cold and dry 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[winterof79]

As for next week and the Scandi pressure rise keep your eyes on the right of the GIFs and colder 850s blues on the "March"

WRF NMM

 

 

Edited March 1 by winterof79

[Lukesluckybunch]

The 6z looking a lot like the ecm