Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Don]

3 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

I think it’s probably fairly safe to rule out any cold weather through the first half of March & probably beyond now. 

In other words, early spring continues the same tone of winter, i.e. it ain't gonna happen and we can probably realistically rule out any 'genuine' cold weather until November?! 

Edited March 3 by Don

[raz.org.rain]

 Don I never was buying into the possibility of an overly cold March. The colder outputs got watered down as they usually do and we're getting more of the same, except it's not quite as ridiculously mild for this time of year.

[bluearmy]

 Rain All Nightthey’re available fairly early (by 7pm) so hopefully sylvain gets the files early too 

[Lukesluckybunch]

If icon is anything to go by...we are in for a rough afternoon..the cold held way out east!ended up like the 6z gfs..awful!

[Daniel*]

The ensemble guidance could rather easily shift in a colder direction. The ens generally refuse to disrupt Atlantic energy into continent. There is agreement for a blocking high in Norwegian Sea, there was no such blocking over the winter. I wouldn’t draw too much from ens especially beyond a week, remember the total agreement in January? It’s important to look at wider context a large deceleration in zonal wind the “cold outliers” I think that’s 3 in a row from ECMWF are not happening by chance. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs going smoothly...I'm looking at that very cold air too the northeast...it couldn't could it!!?

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch looks much better this run as early as day 5 - colder Europe and stronger heights to the NE - low pressure stronger into Spain etc 

Edited March 3 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

looks much better this run as early as day 5 - colder Europe and stronger heights to the NE 

 

Stronger heights around scandi..and some ridging into the arctic!...the low also seems to be splitting into two..could get heights building behind the first..if it does happen

Edited March 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Lukesluckybunch]

Setting up for uk hp..on the gfs looks like..heights building too close to the uk!

[phil nw.]

UKMO T72

The day where the Atlantic is halted and the Scandinavian high is starting to push back.

Comparing yesterdays UK 12z the cold pools are less deep approaching the UK as the high orientates more south to north by day 5

It looks like a couple of drier days before the Atlantic lows try to make inroads from the south west as the blocking fades.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

 phil nw. not according to the gfs........12z.☺

Edited March 3 by ANYWEATHER

[phil nw.]

 ANYWEATHER

Not sure what difference to day 5 you refer to AW.

Both have similar European pattern?

[bluearmy]

 Rain All Night actually I just noticed that there is a 06z ai ec run !!!

So there is a pub run but I expect it won’t appear until after midnight 

[feb1991blizzard]

Decent ECM.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm 144.....close!!!!!

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard  Lukesluckybunch a month too late …..

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

a month too late …..

You can say that again what a shame....this will be awesome run!

[Daniel*]

Developing a good cold feed here… follow the isobars! 

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy

I don't think it will be the outcome but if we could get a proper cold pool it would still deliver snow, i remember snow in may in Kent once in the early 90's, yes it wouldn't deliver as good as Early Dec.

[Rain All Night]

 bluearmy Yeah, that's what I was referring to.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Surely that lot won't be over us at day 9!.

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Developing a good cold feed here… follow the isobars! 

Especially good for Scotland!

Edited March 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[phil nw.]

Jff T192 ECM

Shows there is still very cold air to be had from the NE ,it just needs everything to fall right for us to get it.

[feb1991blizzard]

 Lukesluckybunch

It would have been without that shortwave near Iceland.

[nick sussex]

 feb1991blizzard

It sums up the UKs luck in a nutshell .

As the cold is heading sw from Scandi in rides the spoiler. I’m beginning to think the UK is cursed .

It’s been a catalogue of misfortune for the whole winter . 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

would have been without that shortwave near Iceland.

Good point..the shortwave was a bit random!the east does get a hint of the very cold stuff..perhaps a cold high by day 10..as the coldest air skirts away to the southeast of us!