Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[andymusic]

GFS 18z still trying to turn Wales into a white wintry wonderland next week

[nobble]

 andymusic west mids there too 

[KTtom]

Fax 120 indicating that although low pressure to the west will be domiant this weekend its by no means a total washout. Saturday looking fairly warm in a light southerly with sunshine and showers. Probably some downpours, particularly south west but at least not wall to wall rain and probably feeling quite nice if you are sheltered.

Edited March 26 by KTtom

[Sherry]

Looking at the gfs ensembles they show temps generally above average but also rain spikes so presume wet and mild 

good growing weather 

[MJB]

Wintry from GFS 6z 

[Rain All Night]

13 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 1st (day 7)

A dry continental flow is not looking like the likely outcome for much of the country.

12z ensemble means, out to Tue 9th (day 15)

The upcoming block seems to have a shelf life of about a week, and it seems that there is potential for it to fail to bring us much in the way of dry weather during its tenure.

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)

We are drowning in a sea of blue.

0z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)

It seems that the GEFS was right to never have been on board with the idea of a blocked dry spell for the UK. The Atlantic will undercut the Greenland high to our west rather quickly, and we will then continue as we were.

Edited March 26 by Rain All Night

[damianslaw]

No posts in 7 hours, sense many are unenthused with what the models are currently showing, and feeling disappointed with easter now firmly coming into view ( if wanting predominantly dry conditions).

No sugar coating things, Easter 24 unlikely to go down as memorable from either a heat or cold perspective. Its all just a bit underwhelming.

Low pressure ruling the roost right through into April..Not a washout every day, some decent spells of dry weather possibly Sat and Sunday, but may be quite cloudy and breezy with it. Will firm up more tomorrow.

Into April, heights to the NW but also a signal for heights to our SE, with the trough squeezed through the UK again, back to square one more slow moving low pressure from the SW, need a shake up.. 

Edited March 26 by damianslaw

[Daniel*]

EPS is very unsettled into April potentially wettest weather at this time of year since 2012.

London

Plymouth

 

Unbelievably rainy the past 18 months and for now it continues on and on…

[phil nw.]

The low pressure dominated outlook through to and beyond Easter extends to much of western Europe including Iberia and even as far south as the Canary islands and Morocco at times.

Quite remarkable how far south the Greenland centered block has diverted the Atlantic storm track with colder air plunging so far south instigating those unsettled conditions.

[stewfox]

 phil nw.  Too right as I had off to Lanzarote tomorrow.  Temps no more than 21c with occasional light rain for 10 days. Dire model watching.

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)

We are drowning in a sea of blue.

0z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)

It seems that the GEFS was right to never have been on board with the idea of a blocked dry spell for the UK. The Atlantic will undercut the Greenland high to our west rather quickly, and we will then continue as we were.

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)

12z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)

We must have been bad people in a previous life, or perhaps in this one... there is an almost derisive lack of ambiguity here from the models.

Edited March 26 by Rain All Night

[WYorksWeather]

Since there's no point actually getting our hopes up, for a bit of fun let's just throw in a nice ensemble run to have a look at. Here's P29 from the 12z ECM, at day 14. Goes without saying it's an insane warm outlier.

We can dream...

In all seriousness, I'm just throwing this out there because the actual outlook is too depressing, and others have covered it fairly well. Near average temperatures and wet being the predominant idea.

Basically just a case of waiting to see if we get a pattern change as we go into April. Already looks like the opening days will be a write off, but probably too early to be absolutely sure.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 29/01/2024 at 14:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.

Excellent

As we head into April blocking across the Atlantic, Azores and the Canadian Maritimes will transition into a strengthening Greenland High potentially a cut off high, no surprises here as we are seeing the strongest negative North Atlantic Oscillation values since Early through Mid January which was a prior timeframe which became dominantly focused with a Greenland High, this is also fitting into feedback of the MJO progressing through the Pacific and beginning to cross our part of the Globe including South America, Africa and the Western Hemisphere overall.

Paired with the typical El Ninò + Stratospheric warming [inc SSW] feedback its bang on.

Adding more details I'll start with my comments here 

On 22/03/2024 at 01:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Worth paying close attention it's more the secondary system as it merges with the 1st cyclonic developments which then look to begin rapid cyclogenisis particularly toward March 27th close to the South Southwest of Ireland initially with some indicators of pressure even having cyclogenisis into the 950hpa values.

Quite a lot of developments over the next couple of days.

As areas of precip move into Scotland currently and through this morning & afternoon this will fall as snow, heavy in places and even at modest - potentially low levels as a supportive isotherm resides across Scotland from the previous system in the past few days.

During the morning there will be increasing instability as the troughing starts to intensify, this will bring widespread showers however the main thundery element will be most prominent across Ireland, Southwest England into Wales with indicators that a tornado is possible in the latter areas.

Looks like the cyclogenisis will take the pressure into the 950hpa range [a previous GFS had 948hpa]

Heading into Thursday the threat of possibly damaging wind gusts increases from the Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay and moves into the English Channel. I'd expect a wind warning covering the South Coast of England for Thursday.

As this initial troughing clears Eastward this will open the door to colder conditions from the North during April week 1 with current trends for this to be most prominent across Northern areas of the UK.

With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.

[KTtom]

Overnight Faxes firming up on the better days for the extended weekend being Saturday (away from the north west) and Sunday. Light winds from a southerly quarter with just a scattering of showers, subtle changes in wind direction hopefully resulting in us all having 1 dry and sunny day.

[LetItSnow!]

Very unsettled outlook for the first week or so of April at this time. Low pressure dominating with no doubt copious showers and longer spells of rain at times. Rather cool feel but signs of a southwesterly element setting up around the 5th which gets the 5C uppers into the south of England which could mean any sunny spells could be decent. I also wonder if these moisture laden southwesterly winds may be conducive to thunderstorms or at least thundery showers in places. Wouldn’t be surprised if there could be a bang here and there as we go into April.

From just a quick analysis, overall a very unsettled start to April with a lot of rain and perhaps some thunder. I’d imagine mostly unexceptional temperatures but the south could climb into the upper teens if sunny spells developed.

Of course it’s also worth pointing out the details are yet to be firmed up on closer to day ten and either high pressure may ridge closer than anticipated giving a chance of some warmer, drier days, particularly in the south, or that the low pressure may dig a little further south and the mildness is reduced. Warm air surging northwards through Europe could fuel low pressure our way so one to watch out for. Either way, take the opposite advice of The Weather Girls and don’t leave those umbrellas at home!

[minus10]

The soaking continues ..

Gefs 0z showing total prec from 27th March to 12th April...anything from 50mm to 100mm or more countrywide...

..one consulation is quite a lot of it will be warm rain...particularly further south..

..animation 2m anoms shows that with a couple of exceptions where colder air attemps to move in it will be fairly mild...indeed warm in any sun...

850s also showing this..

...with the orientation of the trough promoting south west winds ..

..just suffecient higher than average pressure to the north west to keep the trough locked in at that positive angle ..

...another 11mm rain last night, 62 mm so far this month here in wgc after February 's record breaking 120 mm..cant remember a period where rain has been so incessant..

...yesterday morning was lovely ..warm sun on my back , clear blue skies...really felt like Spring /early summer...maybe we will have a bit more of that over the Easter weekend however next few days of volatile weather to get through first...looking forward to some interesting skies though..

Edited March 27 by minus10

[Sun Chaser]

 Daniel* That's averaging 140mm down here in the next two weeks. All that after a >100mm March, February, December and November. This is just a sick joke at this point.

Never in my life have I seen model output look so dire across the board, ESPECIALLY at this time of year.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Sun Chaser I'm pretty sure we have already achieved well over half our average annual rainfall mm (in my area anyway) and we are 3 months into the year.  

Genuinely actually a bit worrying. 

Edited March 27 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Neilsouth]

 KTtom Problem is all the forecasts are talking of rain on Saturday this morning, and with the way things have gone since October no "Sun" plans can be made. The amount of times it's been looking good, only to completely change to rain all day within a 24hour period is just 

[Sherry]

So to summarise temps above average showers or longer spells of rain and could feel pleasant in any sunny spells 

[Womble]

 Sherry Typical April weather then?

[Sherry]

 Womble yup

[Chesil View]

 In Absence of True Seasons

What is the average annual rainfall for your area and how much have you had so far this year.

[Uncertainty]

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many euro areas this wet before on a 10 day op, gem:

On that chart, only really the western Czech Republic looks dry. 

Fwiw, the gfs seems to apparate a wedge of heights in the extended.

Not very well supported by the ensembles, who continue to indicate a low sandwiched between a west based -nao and a se euro high. Not a pleasant combination and one that we appear to be getting so often recently.

I’m not sure what weather enthusiast could get enthusiastic about that pattern. I realise some people like rain, especially after a dry period. But not after 10 months surely. Everything is just so damp. And boring.

I’m searching hard for signs of drier, sunnier weather. When I find it, you’ll be the first to know.

 

[phil nw.]

The persistence of Atlantic low pressure just to the west continues to push bands of rain and showers across the UK according to the 12zgfs.Just like a washing machine we seem to be on an extended wash cycle. The image shows the accumulated precipitation expected by day 7.

i guess we will see the occasional glimpse of the sun over this period taking in Easter but really it is a poor overall picture where the need for the brolly or raincoat will be necessary pretty much every day.

The southerly extent of the trough is quite notable with downpours and low pressure also heading for Iberia and some unsettled conditions even affecting the Canary Islands at times.

I think we are all eager for a pattern change but it is difficult to be too hopeful currently.We need the jet pushing north under rising Iberian or Azores heights but nothing on the model horizon showing as yet.

Edited March 27 by phil nw.