cooling climate
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Posts posted by cooling climate
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IF we were to get to t240 then a potent (perhaps very potent) easterly would be virtually a
dead cert. Below is the t240 chart with arrows showing the way I would expect the pattern
to evolve from there.
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The last few runs the GFS has been playing about with amplifing the pattern in the t150 to
t196 time frame. Now the UKMO and the ECM show this. Hopefully this is a work in progress
and we will see further amplification with a link to the the stronger heights much further north.
ECM t240 is almost pornagraphic. beautiful, beautiful chart. I want to see t264 etc lol.
Good old strat warming I knew it would not let us down.
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@CC, not taking anything away from your post, but are you really that focused on the temperature to ignore the heights?
Fair point. I have trawled through more upper air charts( gph, temperature and zonal wind) than I care to
remember using the NCEP daily composite charts. On many occasions I found that after a warming and
increase in gph has subsided at the 10 and 30mb level it reappears at the top of the troposphere (200
300mb) on down some two weeks or more later.
I see no reason to believe this will not happen this time with a much colder last third of February and
on into March due to the location of the warming. Of course this is purely my own take on what I think
will transpire. Cheers.
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The vortex has been nowhere near the UK this winter and is wrong to suggest otherwise.
The models are showing some amplification to the north and northeast but the ECM is still outside
the timeframe when this will be beneficial for the UK I think. It will be several days yet before we
see more consistent signs of a more wintry flavour to the output for the UK.
Of course these are just my thoughts on how things may develope based on the warming that is taking
place in the mid to upper stratosphere. If we are not to see a worthwhile potent wintry period either
before winters end or the first half of spring then hopefully we will see a quick transition to a very mild
and dry spring and summer.
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While others are happy to dismiss the effects of the strat warming down onto the troposphere
which may benefit our locale I am not. I would still expect to see better amplification and blocking
to the north/northeast for the last third of February and into the first third of March even more so
if it is followed fairly quickly by another warming,which the GFS runs are doing although not to any
great extent at the moment.
I am not saying we are going to see the sort of blocking we have seen like last winter or some of
the previous winters(the warming although significant was not sustained for long enough) but there
should be sufficient height increases to bring something of a much more wintry flavour.
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Do not agree with regard to the warming not propagating down through the strat to
the trop. This will become increasingly obvious in the NWP charts over the coming
days. If the warming that is showing towards the end of the GFS runs does verify
then with a pre-condiitioned strat this could lead to extensive northern blocking.
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I think some are in for a surprise come the second half of February and on into
March. It could be a very cold end of February and start of spring but again why
posters are basing their assumptions on ECM ens etc when they have already
led many up the garden path this winter.
The strat, trop feed back looks to me as if it will pay dividens with perhaps some
wintryness around next week(it would be nice to see snow falling even if it does
not settle) but much colder uppers and the prospect of laying snow look a lot
more likely to me now around the last third of February and the first 10 days of
March,
PS. I see some are still challenging for the longest post of the winter competion.
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The ECM ens have been very poor this winter as has the ECM op at times. Although that to can
be said for the UKMO and the GFS as well. Amplification to the north and northeast continues to
be the trend for the middle of the month onwards.
Where some get the idea of a southerly tracking jet this winter I have not got the foggiest you only
have to look back through December and January to see this is not so.
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For well over a week now I have been touting a pattern change to one of more blocking or
amplification to the north and lows tracking further south with hopefully a decent continental
feed bringing cold uppers and finally a taste of winter. This is now starting to show in the model
output and is brought about by the ongoing strat warming.
Plenty of changes to come in the output as the models get to grips with this with the strongest
period of blocking probably the last two weeks of the month.
I know if I could take one week of proper cold wintry weather, laying snow etc from this awful
winter I will be happy.
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Posted in the strat thread a while ago that we should expect to see higher pressure or
blocking to our north in the next couple of weeks and that the models should soon start
to pick up on this.
Well the 12z ECM shows just the sort of synoptics I was referring to. The vortex stateside
has been pushed back over northwestern Canada with high pressure over the eastern
sea board and eastern Canada.Again if the run continued for another 48 hours or so we
would almost certainly see pressure increasing to the north and northeast with the lows
moving into the continent and much colder uppers being pulled down from the north and
northeast.
All courtesy of the strat warming. Now all it has to do is verify.
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Doubt very much the troposphere will follow the Mid to upper strat at all. Should expect to see
blocking showing up to our north in the next couple of weeks. I would expect the models to
start picking up on this soon.
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with respect CC what on earth is the point of that? How many times at various time scales has GFS suggested a wintry outlook, then nothing at all like it suggests happens.
Until the upper air profile changes quite a lot then there is little prospect of any 'winter', other than for the high ground chiefly of Scotland, with brief wintiness elsewhere, ie a touch of frost and some sleet here and there.
The point was that due to the warming ongoing now in the stratosphere (regardless of what your
upper air profiles are showing you) I am saying there is a pattern change on the way to colder
conditions from around mid month onwards. I am sure you upper profiles will latch onto this at
some time or other. We have had this conversation before and you know my views.
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Changes definitely taking place in the extended output and plenty of time still
to salvage something from this awful winter that we have had.
I wish the GFS 12z run had continued for another 100 hours or so as I think
it would of been quite a wintry outlook. Although of course it is far distant FI but
its trends we are looking for and they seem to be pointing in the right direction.
It will be nice though to put this winter behind us and hopefully enjoy a warm
and dry spring and summer before thoughts turn again to winter once more.
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Although stuck on t192 the GFS 06z chart clearly shows the effects of
wave 2 strat warming filtering down into the troposphere.Can not
remember when I last saw high pressure where the vortex has sat most of
the winter.
FI starting to look a lot colder than we have been use to with lows
tracking further south and higher pressure then trying to ridge north.
Of course by this time we are into the middle of February and to have
laying snow you really need the colder uppers but I feel that we are
beginning to see a positive feed back of the warming in the strat down
into the NWP models. Hopefully this will now continue in future runs and
we will see an increasingly colder outlook for around the middle of February
onwards.
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Why sound so condescending when answering a post.Agreed snowy. The t300 plus charts some 12plus days ago look nothing likethey do now especially higher up around the 1mb level. Although at thatrange this is only to be expected I suppose.Really snowy? They seem to have been pretty good from my perspective. temps always verify a little downgraded in intensity but not to an extent to makes a significant difference. The predicted heights seem to have been ok re vortex splits/placement.
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I am almost certain that their will be tropospheric effects from this
warming and with its location I am sure we will benifit from this.A
paper I read on stratosphere warmings(unfortunately I can not remember
which paper this was)stated that the warming can be lost in the mid-layers
only to show up again in the lowest levels of the stratosphere and in the
troposphere.
PS. just read Recretos last post so it will be very interesting to see how
the troposphere reacts in the next two weeks or so.
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I know lol but I seriously think there will be much more of a tropospheric responseI have to say you have been singing from this hymn sheet for days now and I admire your predictions and also hope they are right
Thanks for remaining positive when all others are falling away.
than what the models are showing at present.The GFS is all over the place in how it
is handling the movement of segments of vortices and as such its output could be
seriously flawed. I would expect to see the vortex move further west over Canada
due to the forcing from the wave 2.
Of course I could be completely wrong here but I just do not buy what the models are
showing.Again I could be misjudging the tropospheric lag effect but with a + QBO
I would expect to see a quicker response.
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Without having to make to long a rambling post I think it is almost certain
that the cold to come in February will be from the east/northeast especially
at first before becoming north/northeasterly in nature.
The GFS has started to hint at changes in its FI output but I think once this
strong warming is underway things will change in the NWP charts fairly quickly.
I would say we should be under a very cold east/northeasterly by the middle of
the month if not before and by the end of the weekend this should be prominant
in the GFS runs and should even appear towards the end of the ECM charts.
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All the models are clueless at the moment. Big changes coming due to
strat warming.The models are slowly catching on.
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I do not see a problem with the strat developments despite the energy transfering over.The vortex is being stretched,elongated and weakened with stronger warming over ourside of the pole which should allow for better heights. As long as we have theamplification we can still have a Scandi high which would be my bet.The charts will look a lot different by the time we get round to the weekend.The problem with the strat developments cc is as follows: the heights (rather than the temps) show the upper strat vortex being stretched from canada to siberia once the split has gone post day 10. thats not a bad thing except we see energy being exchanged between the two areas within a single elongated vortex. no split and experience of these exchanges in vortex centre tends to be reflected in a strong atlantic jet as the low heights move back and forth. the only possible positive i can currently see for coldies is that the jet is sinking further south and it is feasible that the trop vortex could be suppressed by the aleutian block to lay canada/s greenland/n scandi and introduce even colder zonality with secondary features running w to e, giving possible surprises on their nothern flank. i know that heights are predicted to rise over se europe which may not be a disaster in the above scenario as long as the 'runners' turn ne after tehy have passed the meridian. just cant see anything else over the next forntnight fo those chasing the white stuff over lowland britain.
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The 12z intensifies the warming out to t240 it not worth looking beyond
that due to the greater inconsistency of the output. It will be interesting
to see where the ECM sits tomorrow.If the t240 charts verify this would be
our strongest wave 2 warming of the season I am sure we would see effects of
this in the troposphere and NWP charts.
I thought I would post and save the 10mb t240 temperature chart just to
see how close it comes to verifing.
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The strat warming out to t240 is intensified on the 12z.It is not worth
looking beyond this as the charts are jumping around all over the place.
It will be interesting to see where the ECM sits tomorrow.
As I said earlier the GFS 12Z offers much better profile over the Arctic
in the earlier time frames with better heights and the vortices staying
on the Siberian side a trend that I think will increase.The rest of the
run in low res is one for the bin.
As for the UKMO it is still forcing the Siberian vortices westward at
t120 which does not look right to me and I would expect to see the opposite
with the vortices staying over the Siberian side.
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Better profile over the pole at t120 with the vortex over northeastern
Siberia not so quick to move west.
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As long as charts like this from the GFS at t216 hardly FI are still forecast
then I remain encouraged that amplification from this wave 2 warming will
bring results and again I would say do not trust the models beyond t144.
Agreed the forecast from the ECM strat charts is not as strong but it is still
there and would still be the strongest wave 2 we have seen this winter.
The 10 day t240 chart at 30mb is also quite encouraging and certainly to me
anyway shows that nothing is set in stone.
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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Out to t180 on wetterzentrale and certainly much more amplified than the 12z and
a lot closer now to the ECM run earlier.