cooling climate
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Posts posted by cooling climate
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Strongest warming yet now being forecasted at the 1mb level on the 06z run.
This does look to be showing up quite consistently now.
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Because of the large differences in the 06z run at a very early time frame I would lean
more towards what the Euro's are showing and due to their encouraging output out to
t144 I think there is a reason to feel a little more optimistic prior to this afternoons runs.
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ECM t144 is probably the chart of the winter so far which sums the winter up really.
The 06z GFS run is very different to the Euro runs as early as t60 so hard to say
what fantasy trip its taking us on.
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The problem with the pattern is that there is not the amplification and as such shortwaves
appear where there is a weakness. They themselves are not the reason for the failure of
the easterly.
Its just the same as when you watch a run over a number of days and you see troughing
over Iceland say pushing further east on each run and shunting a promising Scandinavian
high away back east. The troughing is not pushing the high back east it is the high slowly
losing strength and retreating back east enabling the low to move further east.
looks like a flip by the 18z ens. Tiny, tiny straw to clutch although after the ECM t120-144
charts this evening it may be worth keeping the faith until the morning.
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Great posts again Recretos.
Having a look back through the ESRL strat mean composites and had a look at December
1981 as this upcoming warming has the GPH profile of a Canadian warming.
Just saying.
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Was the strat not forecasted to undergo a warning around now (2 weeks ago) seems those forecasts are as fickle as the others!
Sore point. Indeed it was Jan 1st strat charts showed a very strong warming at the 10mb level and
split vortexes down through all levels. We would almost certainly have been looking at different
synoptic charts to the ones on view now with a complete turn around of fortunes. Unfortunately this
was to be a big red herring.
Below is the 10mb temperature chart I saved from the 1st of Jan.
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What do you mean CC?
I thought we had a good run then judging by your comments?All i see is the high getting shunted off east and a more mobile setup waiting in the wings...
You get the feeling the ECM is on a wind up by dangling the carrot so to speak. Looking at the UKMO
and GFS you think that is it games up then out comes the ECM again and backs everything further
west again plus the Scandi high looks a lot stronger and better shape at t120-t144 regardless of where the run goes after that.
I see even at the end of the run its hinting their may be a second bite of the cherry. Of course the ECM is a NWP model the same as the rest and may have picked up on something the other models
haven't due to its higher resolution. Then again the adjustments west could be gone on the next run.
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Lunar influences? Sceptical, very sceptical. Lunar phases are predictable, you can tell what phase the moon will be at a certain date in the year 3000. So why isn't the weather more predictable as a result? Because they are so many variables.
So am I that was the point of the post.
Back to the models and the ECM is avin a laugh surely. Does'nt the model know when to stop
the wind ups.
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ECM t120 and everything much further west. Definitely the odd one out tonight
and may be the one having to play catch up with the other two models.
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I was thinking the same thing SnowKing when I looked at the northern hemisphere profile
at the end of the run. The greater the warming the better and maybe we will get something
out of this winter.
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The signal for a very active period for around 16th with full moon looks like it will not be ruled by any block to our N east and even the GEM is now jumping ship from holding heights to our NE. Now I think we are seeing the way forward and its going down hill for cold. No prolonged cold blast, indeed if we even get any cold blast....its now not looking good at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see further runs push this LP system even further east through us....which may give us some back edge stuff.
I think its going to get pretty wet next week.
BFTP
Is this a different Moon from the one that was calling cold. I wonder if the NWP models take
into account the phases of the moon. Maybe that is where they are going wrong lol.
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UKMO is a shocker probably worse than the GFS run.
The pattern to a easterly has been chased on here now since the turn of the new year with all three models singing from the same hyme sheet at just 150 odd hours out. Now two day later we are looking at these synoptics for the same time frame. It does make you wonder what is the point in it all, the ens and H500 anomaly charts etc are no better.
Sometimes your gut feeling can be better than the models.When the models were in agreement and they were showing a good possibility of cold and laying snow although I wanted to believe it I found it hard to picture it happening especially with the winter we are having. In Fact in many, many similar winters to this one I can not remember one that suddenly turned wintry with laying snow for more than a day if that.
Lets hope this strat warming materializes or at least the strat profiles being forecast as this offers
something more promising during February perhaps.
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I think that when you look at the potential vorticity charts of the whole vortex (1hPa >100hPa) at past events, you will see that there is no set guidance at to where a displacement that resides at 1hPa will reside and affect the vortex at 100 hPa. Any displacement can often curl around the vortex rather like a helter skelter, so that anomalies at the tropospheric level can be difficult to predict. A split vortex tends to have far less of this effect and can be a little more predictable in terms of tropospheric anomalies.
Yes would agree with this. With a displacement it is like sticking a pin in the donkey's tail
blindfolded. The point of my post above was that you can not rule anything out as far as
where a block may set up if at all.
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Going by the 12z run the UK will see colder air this weekend than what we are likely
to see next week. Not a very nice run at all if its cold you are looking for.
At t168 the high is drifting off into western Russia with another low running under
Greenland and no cold air anywhere near the UK.
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Looking at the GFS 12z run come out at t108 its hard to believe just 48 hours ago at t156
the models were showing the onset of an easterly with us thinking we only have to look out
for spoiler shortwaves lol.
Not a very nice chart to look at considering the amount of rain it will bring with it.
Signs possibly of a undercut at t120. We will see.
No scrub that.
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Looking at the NH set up as a whole i dont see a pattern that would favour any cold outbreak across Western Europe in the foreseeable. Things are changing across N.America to a much milder set up and a eventual weakening jet over here..which would encourage a slowing of the Atlantic train towards the end of the month...overall a poor outlook for cold across both continents.
I would say that this would be a positive pattern change towards a colder outlook for
the UK and Europe towards the end of January and onwards into February unless a
big southeast ridge forms which I think is unlikely.
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All things considered, the latest met office update sounds wintry for the far north and east with hill snow and then an increase risk of frost and ice, and the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is still full of potential, there is still a ways to run with this in terms of how cold it could become and ppn type, especially with elevation. It's sounding more encouraging than what we have endured so far IMO.
The way the update reads it sounds as though the colder air to the east will be a bit further
west than what the models are showing although nothing really cold hence the snow on
hills.
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Two very good threads and makes for some interesting reading with well explained scientific reasoning.
I can understand the reasoning behind the Canadian sea ice and a stronger storm track but by mid
November or earlier this area is always frozen up anyway.
Late January and February in to March could still be your undoing if we do see a SSW but other wise
your long range posted in October for the 13/14 winter is spot on so far and to be called a Comic is
insulting to say the least.
I hope you put that Christmas bet on.
I have been trying to get my head round (and succeeding to a limited extent) globally averaged atmospheric
angular momentum and its impacts on sensible weather and how the differing +&- mountain torques, friction
torques and momentums affect the atmosphere and earth.
I often look at the angular momentum budgets on the ESRL:PSD: PSD map room site but often end up tying
myself in knots trying to decipher what implications these will have on the tropospheric synoptics and wonder
would you be able to describe these events and their impacts on atmospheric angular momentum but in a
easier to understand laymans terms. Cheers
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Looks like we are going to get a GFS 06z special FI tease.
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I should of posted the Gph composite mean for mid Jan 2012 as well.
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Bye bye wave 2, hello wave 1;
http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha2&lng=eng
http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng
There's no doubt now that after the short term split the re-organization of the vortex takes place, primarily as wave 2 activity wanes and obviously this allows the good'ol 'monkey nut' to once again become a nice solid 'peanut'!
What is interesting is the 00Z GFS run with regards to the long term and this potential pattern;
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140110/00/384/npst30.png
That, to me, would be a sound bet given a possible spell of wave 1 activity in terms of the main vortex being significantly displaced as a region of warmth and more anticyclonic conditions develop across a large portion of North America. However, as Ed pointed out some time back, displacements are somewhat less favorable than a split and from my own knowledge this sames to be the case as well. If the end result is a displacement rather than a split into early February then it really will be make or break in terms of where the vortex ends up and also to what potency it has retained. That last 30hPa would not be indicative of Scandinavian height rises in any shape or form.
Cheers, Matt.
Regarding the last sentence I would agree thinking that the block would be somewhere over
Canada, western Greenland with perhaps cold zonal or northerly winds for the UK.
Looking back on the NCEP/NCAR stratosphere reanalysis charts for a similar profile I found
the 30mb temperature composite mean for mid Jan 2012
This propagated down to the troposphere resulting in a very strong Siberian/Scandinavian
ridge which the met at one point thought would bring widespread bitterly cold and wintry
weather to the uk but only ended up affecting the eastern half of the UK.
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The 18z run serves to show us that it is still all to play for which is what I was
implying earlier when the ECM t120 chart came out. Would not be surprised
to see even more trough disruption on tomorrows runs. The round trough
on this afternoons runs just did not seem logical.
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Are we saying FI is 120 with regards to the low in the Atlantic and how it progresses?
The ECM and GEFS are pretty similar past 120 with the low though (sinking south)
I do not think anyone saw the ECM t120 chart coming and proves there may well be
surprises to come still.
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You are not alone! Plus colleagues at UKMO who just expressed same views! The next few days/weeks will, rest assured, prove utterly compelling viewing meteorologically and with potential for further critical developments later Jan-Feb.
You are a tease lol. SSW say no more.
I think most on here are intrigued by the up and coming pattern evolving even if it does not
bring what they want its just that every now and then its hard not to let a little imby type
thinking spill over onto the thread.
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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by cooling climate
Much better run so far from the 12z GFS. Better Jet profile, alignment etc we could
get lucky here.
Nope out to t144 now and its not going to happen.Not on this run anyway.