cooling climate
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Posts posted by cooling climate
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Indeed Shed and had this forum been around then there would have been much despondency, strong PV, big euro high I won’t use the B word, just goes to show what can happen. However things right across the NH were different then, arctic ice extent for one thing, back then sea ice coverage in August was as great as it is now at its greatest winter extent, so the winter ice pack back then must have been vast, I’m sure someone can find some data on that. My own theory and I stress that. Is that there is a correlation between winter sea ice cover and the prevalence of HLB across Greenland and Scandinavia and I seriously doubt if we could get another 47 or 63 unless that changes, leastwise our odds against it are substantially greater now. That of course doesn’t mean we can’t get HLB at all as recent years have shown, just that it’s less likely, certainly less likely to be of that extreme nature.
The 06z is out now but it’s done nothing to change my mind, although post mid range it looks substantially different from the 00z, the central theme remains, zonal, MLB, back to zonal, although there are again some hints at HLB it never really gets off the ground and only has a minimal impact on us.
I take it you have never looked at the archived charts on meteociel showing the winter 46/47 synoptics.
The two winters are chalk and cheese not just the February although of course we do not know how
this February will play out yet.
Knowing what we do now about the stratosphere troposphere coupling there must have been strong
stratosphere wave breaking and warming in Nov, Dec. and especially Jan of the that winter to produce
the winter synoptics that occured.
If we see the very strong warming that was forecast in the mid stratosphere appear in the days and weeks
to come then the possibilites for synoptics, cold and snow of winters such as 47,56,82,85,86,87,and 91 would
not be unrealistic. Without such a warming then not a chance although moderate warming and wave
breaking can still deliver cold and snow to the UK.
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I for one would put no more faith in the ECM ens than any other model or forecasts.
A downward trend appeared a couple of weeks or so back and that fizzled out to
nothing.
Judging by the stratosphere forecasts from the GFS it has also all but fizzled out to
nothing along with my expectations for cold for later this month. Talk about wind ups
to offer something of a major change in the pipeline during such a winter we are
having and then to back track like it has.
It will be worth giving this another 24 hours and seeing what the ECM strat forecasts
are tomorrow but I have a growing feeling this is a red herring.
The Mogreps that have started to jump ship to a colder pattern may have done so
when the ship has already sailed.I do not expect to see much in the way of excitment
in the tomorrow although of course I hope I am wrong.
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From what I have seen normally the geopotential height (GPH) is related to the strength of the
warming seen in the stratosphere but this seem to me to be out of sinc on the GFS 12z run.
As you can see from the charts below, the GPH charts show almost a split vortex at the 10mb,
30mb and even 100mb level where as the warming is mediocre to say the least.
It may well be as Bluearmy says, that with a stretched and weakened vortex the warming and
forcing need not be that strong for HLB's to form.
Personaly I think the warming shown on the instant weather maps is wrong and should be
stronger or the GPH charts are wrong.
I also agree with other posters in that the talk of big pattern change etc and my forecasts of
another Feb 91 were very premature although there may be enough amplitude from the
warming forcast for a colder and hopefully wintrier pattern to take hold.
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An emerging number of MOGREPS members are starting to show much colder solutions by end of the trend period (15d). This hadn't been the case recently.
Although the stratosphere warming has backed off considerably from what it was showing
3 days ago when it looked as if we would see a possible SSW and pehaps major northern
hemisphere pattern change.
Their may well be strong enough wave breaking on our side of the pole to feed off the
stronger wave breaking on the Siberian side to create weak but sufficient heights to
the north/northeast with lower pressure to the south of the uk to produce a potentially
wintry set up cold enough for lying snow, frost etc.
This sort of set up could be far snowier IF it comes off than a very strong positive heights
to the north driving weather fronts and lows further to the south.
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Disappointing strat runs this morning especially from the GFS considering what we were
looking at just 3 days ago.
Rather than the vortex being to strong and harder to break down I think that the
forecasted warming is now far weaker than first projected with the stronger wave 2
on our side of the pole very much diminished from what was originally forecast.
The stratosphere forecasts on the Berlin site show the same with a stronger warming on
the Siberian side and very little on our side.
This may be linked to the MJO which has died since entering phase 5.
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The ECM op run may look outlandish now but give it another few days and perhaps
many will start to realize the potential that lies ahead.
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The point could be argued I suppose that the UKMO at t144 is actually better than the
ECM at t144 with the heights more into Greenland and the energy held back further
west. Also with higher heights to feed off to the north east the t168 UKMO chart would
probably be very similar to the ECM t168 but with the high a little further west and able
to influence our weather more.
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LOL I'm loving the consistency shown by the operational models output. The ECM tonight
trying to make the most out of the weak heights to our north and northeast. Both the ECM
and the GFS have toyed with what the ECM is showing tonight and it probably has a 50/50
chance of materializing.
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After viewing the Berin strat charts of the ECM I have renewed confidence we will see
the stronger warming coming back on the GFS runs. Hopefully the 12z run this afternoon
will be a step in that direction.
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If we get enough wave two amplification and warming the northern blocking and
cold synoptics will come with the likely hood of a high pressure to the north/north
east of the UK.
This sort of pattern would be less reliant on timing as it is an actual pattern change
rather than trying to find glimmers of cold in an otherwise zonal pattern where timing
is crucial.
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Seem odd the way the 0z GFS run showed the vortex almost sblits at the 10mb
and 30mb levels yet the warming has downgraded in the last couple of days.
Although the warming is only one part of the story.
The 06z GFS just out and the vortex looks a lot more robust again although we
are talking about the tail end of the output so changes expected.
Good to see the warming coming into range on the ECM charts. Perhaps these
charts will offer more consistency than what we have been seeing from the GFS.
Recretos the NCEP R2 reanalysis site you mention I looked it up but you have to
register an account citing business, institution, affiliations etc. Is this the correct
link.
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The GFS 0z stratosphere charts shown on instant weather maps seem odd to me this morning.
The warming has down graded from where we were a couple of days ago and yet it is showing
a sblit almost at the 10mb and 30mb level. With this to a lesser extent filtering all the way down
to the 100mb level and troposphere hence the blocking to the north in the FI range of the model
output.
The ECM stratosphere charts now showing warming in the 10 day range at 10mb and 30mb levels.
I feel a lot more optimistic again this morning regarding the last two weeks of January especially
with the ECM model picking up on the warming and therefore would disregard the EC32 update at
the present time.
10mb GPH chart. 30mb GPH chart
100mb GPH chart
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For the last several runs now since yesterday mornings GFS 06z run that showed a big
upgrade in the stratosphere warming during January the strength of the warming has
been weakening run by run. I can only assume that the latest EC32 does not see a
major strat warming taking place.
The major warming shown yesterday would undoubtably have had a major impact on
our weather and the weather pattern around the northern hemisphere where as now
judging by what the stratosphere charts are showing from the latest 18z run, there
would probably be very little impact.
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Cheers, just to clarify, I have been told that we didn't achieve an SSW in 91 but on my list its says we did but not until February, that delay you talk about must have not been too great as I remember the initial undercut that brought the Easterly happened in January, we had snow in the midlands on the last Thursday in Jan from the Trough digging south, also, where are those stratosphere reanalysis charts from please?
I know you can build monthly anomalies at any atmospheric level on the NOAA compositing site but I like the individual day charts.
I got that chart off of the Berlin site. Click on stratosphere analysis. This page tells you about
the archive charts that they have but you have to register to see them.
I tried but did not get anywhere. On the left of where it says to register there is an example
and this is where I got the chart from.
I would love to see the archived charts myself.
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But the charts posted don't really show any significant displacement, just a stretching, I would far rather have this chart verify http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010106&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384 than this http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010212&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=348, going forward I would feel we would be far more likely to see an SSW with the first chart than the second.
I would agree. A split or direct warming to the the north of the UK would be a bulls eye with regard to a cold
pattern developing for Europe and the UK with a probable north then northeasterly airflow with Scandinavian
heights developing.
Below is the wave 1 warming in January 91 above the UK that almost certainly led to the
bitter easterly that followed in February 91. The QBO was in negative phase which may
have aided this or just delayed the propagation of the warming and subsequent pattern.
You can see from the 10mb temperature chart very cold temps the other side of the
pole (-80c)with temperatures our side of the pole up to -10c.
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but not in the 11/15 day timeframe which is when events in thes strat are likely to be happening (if they verify). we then have to wait at least a few days for downwelling, even with a quick response.
I can not see anything happening in the next 10/14 day timeframe apart from a slow cool down
perhaps. Beyond the 17/18 of the month then yes we could well be in business.
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I've been through every ensemble member in the GEFS and the overwhelming signal in FI is to set up a much more wintry pattern for the UK in the day 12-16 timeframe.....bang on when the Metoffice see the change occurring.
It is also very much in line with what myself and several other posters especially those following
the stratosphere forecasts could see happening during the last two weeks of January and
hopefully onwards through February.
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Judging by the charts you have shown Recretos it does look a + EAMT event but earlier
strat charts at the 1mb level certainly gave the impression (to me anyway) that the warming
was from the Tropics moving ne across America and on up across the pole to join with
wave activity from eastern Asia.
The 12z GFS run is now out and another take on the warming. I suppose until we get into
the semi- reliable time frame t240 or so then we can expect these fluctuations in the runs.
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A disappointing strat run from the GFS 06z run compared to yesterdays 06z run and probabley the
weakest warming we have seen since it was first picked up several days ago.
I wonder what is causing the volatility in the output, could it perhaps be related to solar activity
since this is a top down warming which I think Recretos said can be traced back to the meosphere.
I would need to refresh my memory on solar forcing on the Atmosphere but with solar activity on
the increase again (M9.9 flare today and further strong activity expected over coming days)
I wonder would this aid or subdue any potential warming.
Anyhow as others have said until we see consistency in the stratosphere forecasts then nothing is
certain.
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At t144 on the GFS 06z run this is where we would like to have strong wave 2 activity which would
build heights to our north as per Nick Sussex post earlier. Unfortunately without this the energy and
lows to the nw will move east flattening the pattern as we have seen so often this winter.
With wave 2 amplitude forecast to become much stronger during the second half of January we
would be likely to see a different outcome should similar synoptics arise.
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There is no reason not to think that the warming we saw on the 06z run will be back again on
future output progressing nearer in time etc. The 06z this morning was similar to a progression
in time from the 18z a couple of nights back which gives me another reason to believe it is very
viable regardless of wheather the 12z ops run showed it or not. Having said this the warming is
still there on the 12z but not as strong.
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Could be a very cold FI coming up on the 12z run.
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After this mornings relatively poor GFS 0z strat run I was going to make a post along the lines of
say I would not be surprised to see the strat warming come back stronger and sooner over coming
runs, and then along comes the 06z run and beat me to it.
Wheather this is due to data issues who knows but what a run this morning.
As I posted in the model thread I think along with many more knowledgeable posters on here that
this would have major implications on the troposphere and weather for Europe and the UK.
We would be in prime position for possible major Arctic outbreaks from the east and northeast.
Looking forward to Recretos and others posts on this major upgrade in the warming to come.
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It seems the request by chio for model outputs above the Troposphere to be kept out of this area of model discussion is being ignored, shame really as there is so much to discuss for both threads?
The warming that is shown on the 06z GFS run would have such a big impact on the troposphere that
it would be impossible to ignore. Even on the FI end of the 06z run it is hard to believe that the blocking
to the northeast is not strat led. Plus significant warming is forecast to start as early as t216-240 which
is not exactly la la land.
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The latest GFS12z run strengthens the warming compared to recent runs with a renewed
warming over the pole at the end of the run.
Below.
Taking the 30mb level of the stratosphere as an example you can clearly see the difference
in temperature profile at present to what is forcast at the end of the run. It is often at this level
on down that can have big implications on our tropospheric weather.
Again this is just a forecast and a long way out.