cooling climate
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Posts posted by cooling climate
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I have saved the op run from the ECM 12Z today because the way the upper
atmosphere is changing I would not rule it out as another possibility for
the end of Jan and start of February.
That would be Jan 87 type cold.
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Its taken some seven weeks of winter but finally we are at a stage where
it is getting exciting anticipating the run to come with some real potential
pehaps post day 8 possibly even earlier.
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Agreed if the UKMO t144 northern hemisphere chart verified I would grab the runwith both hands.Heights are building to the northeast with Arctic high comingsouth and very cold uppers heading west.I have to laugh the UKMO has garnered hardly any attention this evening with the GFS FI taking over but the UKMO is a big upgrade in terms of cold potential and isn't at T240hrs! It might be a one hit wonder but for me anyway is a lot more interesting than a northerly at T240hrs which is so reliant on a favourable upstream pattern at the crucial timeframe.
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Its strange riding home from work thinking this can not really be winter,
someones playing a practical joke and then you see the t264 chart on the
GFS 12z and realise what we have been missing.Out in FI land I know but the
signal is getting stronger and hopefully there is some real winter ahead of
us.
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On the contary I think things are shaping up excellently for a cracking last fewweeks of winter but that is just how I see things playing out so to speak.Reading between the lines it doesn't look too good. Perhaps everybody is looking too far out and need to look at a different time period closer say t168???
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There is finally something worth talking about in the model output roughly
speaking t168 onwards.Before then yes maybe a little wintryness here and
there but its from the end of next week onwards that things are really
starting to look up.Of course the amplified charts have everything to do
with strat warming but just a little caution as the models may be reacting
to quickly to what is going on higher up in the atmosphere.
Hoping for some fun and games during the last five or so weeks of winter and
perhaps on into March.
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CC - YOU DONT NEED DEEP COLD - ITS JANUARY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yes, the first disruptive trough cannot draw a decent undercutting soueaster because the continent isnt cold enough. that will not be the case on the second or third disruption. some of our best snowfalls have been those where the situation was a knife edge one. we really could see a decent snow event next week. by the same token, we could fall the wrong side by a degree or so or a hundred miles. its getting to that kind of set up - honestly.
Ok maybe I used the wrong term by saying deep cold what I ment to say was a pattern in the next
10 days or 9 from tomorrow where the pattern is conducive for snowfall and low laying snow.
I would rate our chances as 10% at the very best.
I think many are flogging a dead horse here. Beyond day 10 and things may start to change quite
rapidly. This strat warming is looking better and better for some fireworks come February.
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Struggling to understand the despondency on here. If the models were completely right beyond days 4/5, there would be little point in this thread. The trick is trying to work out where they are likely wrong and how they should be best adjusted to take all the data (current and recent) into account.Some strange postings today. will make a more considered assessment post the ecm ens. until then, consider what the overall trend has been of the last few days. (Clue: the scandi ridge is not clearing as quickly as the models keep showing it to and the disruption is correcting west, slowly but surely) and that doesn't take upstream fully into account.
The trouble is there is no sign from any of the models of the deeper cold reaching the UK. Yeah sure we
might see a couple of rather cold, chilly days with dare I say it some air frost thrown in for good measure
and as I just posted perhaps a little wet snow here and there but I really do not think that is what people
come on this thread looking for not in January anyway.
One thing is near certain there is no trend for deep cold to affect the UK within the next 10days.
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Very unlikely that anything is going to come out of this pattern. At very best maybe a little
wet snow here and there but who wants that. I really think our chances now all rest on
the strat warming towards months end and if we are real lucky maybe some real winter
weather during February.
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The t240 chart lol. Wake Mr Murr up somebody. A nice dumping of snow for southern and western
areas I would of thought. Seriously I wonder if Ian F and a few pals are avin a laugh at our expense.
I really can not see anyone taking this run seriously surely.
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Might as well play along with the run for a while longer. The t192 chart is a beaut pity that
a chart such as that can only offer us 850's of -4cto -5c in the third week of January.
Lovely cold finally at t216 the t240 could be a slider with trough disruption to the west.
Don't believe any of it but nice to have a bit of fun for a change after the never ending
boredom without even a sniff of cold.
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I really hope the ECM is somewhere near right tonight because for me its in the last chance
saloon. There are only so many wind ups you can take from a model. That said synoptically
the t144 and 168 charts look great but it seem as if it does not matter what synoptics we get
the models do not want to bath us in cold air. 850 temps are very disappointing for quite a
good synoptic looking chart.
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I may be wrong ( would not be the 1st time) but it looks to me on the 1mb temperature
charts in the last few runs as if the warming is slowly moving back west, entering the
Arctic more from our locale rather than from mid-Russia northward.
If this is the case then this would be much more benificial for us in that we would see a
much quicker response I would imagine.
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whilst there does indeed seem to be a 'quick downwelling ssw' trop response at the end of the gfs op run, (the evolution of the post T300 part of the run carries all the hallmarks of a quick trop response to a ssw), i cant accept there is a connection. what is shown on that gfs strat chart is at 10hpa - i cannot conceive that the trop will move in tandem with it. has to be co incidence. we would expect to see that trop response within a week of an actual ssw (if it propogated quickly). there is no ssw shown on the 12z op - just another asian warming.
Is it not true that tropospheric heights are a precursor to SSW warmings and it is this
that the model is showing rather than the effects of the warming.
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I wonder with the wave 2 fading and the stronger wave on the Siberian side being able to
spin the vortices anti- clockwise crosspolar on to a meridian axis if you like would this have
been better for our chances of cold.
Where as now it is starting to look as if a second very strong (perhaps SSW) warming is likely to
halt this process and push the vortex (more circular in shape) back towards canada and
Greeland. I suppose you could argue that it might improve our chances of more easterly type
weather during february perhaps and any strong warming poleward has to be better than what
we have, but I did like the look of the crosspolar set up and how this may have manifested itself
down into the troposphere.
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GFS 12z out to t132 and as I said yesterday there is only one way the high to the east
is going and that is south.
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Lol! I never said that the surface pattern holds the key I was simply saying that within that upper pattern you can have some uncertainties at ground level, so we know the troughing will be in a certain approximate area, given the block to the ne a hundred miles either way can make a difference at ground level, those anomaly maps are a guide to what can be achieved within the overall pattern. You have got completely the wrong end of the stick of my posts and I think we should just leave it and move on.
Quite agree with this. You can look back through anomaly H5 patterns or composites of years
gone by showing the H5 anomaly pattern which at times would suggest the UK in the grip of bitterly
cold weather etc when in fact it was not the case at all.
In fact I would not mind betting that the anomaly charts over the last week would show a much
higher chance of cold affecting the UK than they do now. Thus making them no better for forcasting
and at times worse especially when a pattern is about to break down or change.
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Well looks like the block gets pushed East/SE. I think we have a wet and cool week ahead but after signs of AZH and that sunken block linking. This will bring one very large block...over Europe. A calm, dry and mild last 3rd of Jan with poss NW still affected by fronts??BFTP
Don't tell me the moon has changed its mind again.
Back to the models and meteorological way of looking at the weather. The window was small
regarding blocking to the north/northeast with not enough amplification from the wave 2. Pity,
it would have been a whole different ball game if the strat charts earlier in the month had
verified.
Below shows 100mb gph and temperature charts showing wave 2 amplification.
Below on 100mb chart you can see the upper air pattern has de-amplified closing the window
to northern blocking, This is why you see the little spoiler shortwaves appearing in the
synoptics.
Now if we look even further out to 10 days there is strong support that the low height
and vortices will be pushed over our side of the pole with little chance of northern
blocking.
Below is the 100mb chart at 10 day out.
This is supported by what is happening higher up in the mid stratosphere at the 30mb level
It is not untill we get much further out towards the end of the month when things start to
look more favorable for northern blocking. Although at this range we are in FI territory.
Below is the 30mb temperature chart showing the polar vortices aligned from Siberia
cross polar to the south of the UK. The Blue area is warming where you would expect to
see higher heights. Along side is the 30mb gph chart.
Now before someone screams northern blocking cross polar flow bitter cold etc etc it is
not as simple as that because first these charts are just forecasts and need to verify and
second by the time this propagates down into the the troposphere there could well be
residule areas of vortices to our north over Greenland etc that would scupper any cold
synoptics etc but at least our chances of something more akin to winter will of hopefully
increased.
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Just a quick look back in time. Older EC run valid for Tuesday:
FAX:
This, for Thursday, shows the EC perhaps 10C out in 850hPa temperatures:
Just goes to show how poor the modeling has been the last several days. This includes
ens and anomaly charts etc. When you look at the models now you wonder where all the
talk came from regarding a east/northeasterly.
I am always suspicious of charts showing good synoptics for a easterly at t240 as you know
the pattern will evolve and change but when it is showing strong support at t144-168 and you
take into account the verification figures of models such as the ECM and UKMO you a forgiven
for thinking you are looking at something that is reasonably accurate. In reality they were not
even close. Very poor.
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There is only one place the high is going at t192 and that is south unless their
is some major undercutting from the Atlantic.
t192 very underwhelming whens the 18z out lol.
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Depending on the amplification of the ridge in the western Atlantic I wonder Is there going
to be a new trend starting where we dismiss the easterly and look to the north/northwest
for colder weather.
Also does pertubation 20 hold some clues to the pattern change end of January on into
February due to strat warming I wonder.
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Yep "BTW, discard the T850 from 96/144h there is a problem with them."
I'm trying to fix them right now. Sorry about that.
I was hoping it was the other way round with the
500 charts being wrong lol. Thanks.
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UKMO looks like a dogs dinner with the 850 temps out of sinc with the
H500 chart at t144.
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T192 and -4c to -5c 850's across the country.
Crazy Crazy run. BRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
This notion of a Canadian vortex = mild UK is a misnomer you only have
to look through the archives to see some of our best and severest cold
spells (east and northeasterlies)with a Canadian or Bafin Island vortex
in place. The big difference is northern HLB's if we get the amplificat
ion to the north or northeast then our chances are greatly increased of
some proper cold and wintry weather regardless of the vortex to the NW.
With the vortices under constant pressure from wave 1 and 2(strat warming)
the MJO going into phase 7 will give amplitude needed to finally get
some proper blocking into the Arctic.From there it is a question of luck
really as to how the cards fall my bet would be brief northerly type then
before becoming more northeasterly/easterly.
The big pattern changer for me though is the warming being projected by
the GFS strat charts from t240 onwards which is still out of range of the
ECM at the moment. If the warming that the GFS is showing is anywhere near
correct (it has been showing pretty consistently for nearly a week now)then
a fantastic few weeks into February and March could await.