[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Out in FI I know but the 06z is starting to get the idea.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

You know you are having a very mild winter when the beeb are

saying today will be cold with highs of 7c lol.I wonder what

they would call maximum of 0c in a winter such as this.

Still very optimistic of strat warming and wave 2 amplification

to turn things around.What was it I said ah yes by Sunday we will

all be happy bunnies looking at what the charts are showing us.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Well always the optimist I am not buying what the models are showing in

the extended range. Hopefully with enough amplification from the wave 2

induced warming that will be starting in a few days we will see the

Russian high amplifing and moving westward. This due to a more amplified

pattern to our north as the vortex becomes more stretched and elongated.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Over the last month I have lost count how many times I have half read a post

before realising it is the same post just reworded differently.It also amazes

me how many claim to have known how bad the winter was going to be with lines

like "we knew it would be February or even later before things turned interesting".

Hindsight makes great long range forcasters out of all of us.

Even with a westerly QBO noboby could have foreseen how poor this winter has been

or how wet and also how strong the vortex has been.I know I certainly didn't.

Yesterday I said that by next Sunday there will be a lot of happy cold weather

lover on the forum excited by the runs they are seeing.I still think that but it

is all down to the forecasted strat warming. If this turns out to be another damp

squid then apart from a couple of days cold here and there perhaps that is the

best we will likely see during February. However I stand by what I posted yesterday

with great expectations for February.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

 

I think a cautionary note on the strat warming.... it's something UKMO's M-R folk have been watching closely all winter (as you'd imagine). I just asked about this, i.e. re their views on the NCEP signals of late. They tell me: "GLOSEA5, the UKMO seasonal model, doesn't seem to support this event all that much and since it hasn't been working so far this season in terms of getting the warmer air down in reality, this signal isn't being used in relation to forecasting a change to colder periods." 

There was a much more pronounced signal emerging back in earlier Jan (modelled for later Jan and into early Feb, as some on this forum are aware), but that was lost.

The GFS stratosphere charts have been a lot more consistent on the warming they

are showing during February than they were with the warming they were showing

at the end of December early January.

Time will tell.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Nice and snowy for England and wales on tonights 18z run at t150,

t156 time frame.This is the 18z though so it should come with a

health warning but I have been saying I would expect to see the

pattern amplify in the mid to extended range.Opposite to what the

models have been showing.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

 

My major problem with the huge high to the east is that its too big and the weak point will always be the UK , its much better to have a smaller high located further west over Scandi than a huge Siberian high which as we've seen can look good on the charts but is incredibly difficult to get it to back far enough west. You only have to look at February 2012; the same problem is still there, the Siberian high all sounds very nice but in terms of delivery of cold you can count on one hand the amount of times thats brought deep cold to the UK in the last 20 years. We'd be better off with Scandi high and chunk of PV dropping into Russia than yet another load of drama over that Siberian high.

I really think this is the way forward which in my book would tie in nicelywith the srtat warming that will be taking place.The secret is getting apart of the vortex under the block (thinking 47 here). As for the block beingto big you would probably lose the western part of the block as it split.Getting way ahead of myself here considering its a 10day chart but I amconfident this is where our winter will come from this year.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

ECM t240 you can almost feel the cold coming west if the run were

to continue.With reinforcing heights coming over the pole to add

more amplification and therefore further trough disruption to the

west with the massive Russian high also expanding west.The bitter

cold pooling under the high means it will not sink but has to

expand.I would like to have seen the charts four or five days on

from the t240 with what I would expect to see -15c -16c uppers

crossing the northsea to us and even colder still over Europe.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

 

interesting NH profile at day 7. Coupled with the gefs day 7/8, if I hadn't seen any fi output, I'd be sure of a big block forming to our north/ne.

I would not mind betting that by next weekend there will be a lot of happycold weather fans in this thread relishing in what the NWP models areshowing.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

Looking at the daily composite strat charts for 2009 the are many

similarities between this warming and that in regards to location,

depth etc althouth of course most of this is in the extended range

and is still just a forecast at this stage.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Although a real freeze was never at any time modeled for later this week.

I think it is becoming very apparent in fact it has been for quite a while

now.That the only chance of us seeing any prolonged sustained very cold

wintry weather this winter rests with the upcoming strat warming that has all

the hallmarks of 2009 abeit some 2weeks later than then.

By my reckoning then we are looking give or take a couple of days the 7th of

February onwards for some real cold and wintry weather with robust HLB's and a

tanking AO.

As for the near term you can not rule out the chances of some snowfall over the

UK later this week especially if there is a little more disruption of the

lows and fronts from the west and also if there is a little more correction west

with the Scandinavian high. It would not take a lot a tweek here and there to

give some snowfall although at the moment the north looks the best bet.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

 

This chart at 30hpa surely indicative of a subsequent Greeny block?

 

 I doubt we would need a warming that strong to see some very tasty synoptics

developing during February.

Great stuff again Recretos.

Agreed Lorenzo is this what Ian F and co were hinting about if so and we do

continue to see a very strong and amplified wave 2 pattern and split I

wonder when there may be a mention in their 30day forecast of perhaps a big

pattern change on the way.Although it could be argued that what we are seeing

in the model output now is the start of this change.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Very disappointed with the ECM this morning not for what it is showing but

for its complete lack of consistency.You just can not trust its output

anymore.I did wonder yesterday that if the GFS and ECM had overdone the

distruption to the west of the UK the cold scenario would implode and I just

don't by it. I think the mid term to extended range the pattern should be

amplifing to the north which is the opposite to what these two models are

showing.

As for the UKMO I did say yesterday that it was just one run and sure enough

it has reverted back to something more inline (although not as cold) as what

it was showing in previous runs.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

The ECM along with the GFS have moved west with the easterly tonight

and there is no reason why this should not continue tomorrow or at

least a better orientation of the high to introduce colder uppers

quicker.

I am hopeful for a even more amplified pattern from the ECM and GFS

as well. The ECM t240 synoptics seem to portray the changes that Nick

spoke of on the American side of the pond.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Many parts of the UK could well be on the cusp of a very snowy pattern

setting up and with wave 2 activity increasing to our north with the

vortex becoming weaker and more extended we could very well see more

amplification in the pattern tracking the lows and fromts a little

further south bring many areas into the firing line.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

I would not be at all surprised to see further upgrades to wintry weather

come tomorrow morning both in the short and extended range.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Oh surprise surprise lovely looking t96 from the ECM.Practically identical to

the t96 from the GFS with the lower 850's slightly delayed. The UKMO the odd

one out tonight but as I said it was just one run.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

The UKMO is just one run and the model could very well be back to

where it was this morning come tomorrow. I would not be at all

surprised to see a correction west by the ECM tonight.Prepare to be

surprised. The ECM's extended range has a lot in common with the GFS.

The throwing of toys in this thread is really tiresome.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Looks to me like a substantial swing towards the UKMO

from the 12zGFS this afternoon.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

 

A change in geopotential height from wave activity is not a change in temperature, no matter how intrinsically the two may be linked so it is not misleading at all, cc. It is better to be accurate and differentiate between the two, so that confusion doesn't occur.

As you said they are intrinsically linked. You can not have one without theother.Recretos the warming and gph that you show for 03.02.14 only shows one warmingbecause the warming on the pacific side had dissipated from the warming ongoingat the moment.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Just got in from work and the looked at the 06run which was very uninspiring

but then I looked at the 10hpa strat charts and WOW just WOW. If they were to

verify then I would say December 2010,February 91,Jan 87 etc synoptics would be

possible.

We have been here before though when a similar strength warming appeared in the

charts on new years day dated for the 17.01.14 only for it to reduce in strengh considerably.What it is showing now though is somewhat different in that this

warming starts at a much closer time frame although the warming it is showing at

10mb is at an altogether different level to what it has been showing the last few days.

If this were to verify though we could have all that we coldies have been craving for the last 2months roled into one from the middle of February to middle of March.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Extremely surprised to see the UKMO 100% consistent with its output from

yesterday evening. The ECM and its ens have this winter been less than

helpful and it looks like the problems with that model regarding its

inconsistent output continue.

Still unsure of the outcome but hard to imagine the UKMO model being

wrong at such an early timeframe.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

I think it is a bit misleading to say that a wave is not a warming when clearly it is.

If you see a wave a 50,30,10mb etc there will be a warming associated with it.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Not a hint on the 18z tonight of it trending towards the UKMO run at t96 onwards

and despite what some say about the 06z and 18z being poor runs there is always

an element of truth about them especially in the earlier stages.I would therefore

now say I would be extremely surprised to see the ECM move towards the UKMO in

the morning in fact I would expect to see the the reverse.

I would not worry about counting snow totals on the ECM run either. A totally

pointless exercise at the time frames we are talking about and given what I am

seeing from the 18z the south of the country at least may be having to wait a

while longer yet to see any worthwhile snow.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

The main difference as I see it between the UKMO and the GFS, ECM is where the

core of the hights are at t96. The UKMO has them just to the east of Svalbard

thus with higher pressure to the north the low at t96 tracks further south.

The ECM and GFS transfer the core of the heights southeastward towards Moscow

thus with weaker heights to the north the low also tracks further north.

The UKMO sucks the high up from scandinavia now the three charts below show

the ECM at t48,72 and 96 you can see that from t48 to 72 it starts to suck the

high up and then between t72 and 96 it changes its mind and the high takes up

residence further south and east as the GFS model does.

Again big,big differences at such a short time frame,which one is right or will

we see a half way house which would not be that bad.