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snowlover2009

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Posts posted by snowlover2009

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A lot of cold runs appearing on the ensembles, the ones that don't show the cold, bring a cold Atlantic flow, but eventually build heights north. So I think if we don't get our easterly first time round, it will come a week later maybe. However, I personally believe the runs that bring the atlantic flow in, are struggling to undercut the lows, which I can imagine being a pain tbh. I remember the night before the models started showing these cold charts, the 18z ensembles all trended very zonal and stormy. The next day, they flipped and started developing heights.

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Quick question. it usually takes -5 uppers or below to get snow from the north and sometimes west, obviously others factors to consider too. But if you get uppers of -2 from the east, does that rule change, I thought a continental influence, made it easier, no matter what the uppers are, of course there would be a limit.

    P.S nice to see pretty much all the ensembles digging around -5 to -8 after next weekend.

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    You see this is what annoys me most when something interesting develops in the models, people wittering on, being pathetic by posting some of the best charts we have seen in months and saying things like 'its dire'. I just viewed the ukmo charts. Where on earth do people get their info? It is not perfect, but the heights over scandi are there and that is all that matters at this stage. I would just expect it to be a slower process to getting a proper easterly thats all. People are never ever satisfied!!That is the most blocked gfs FI I have seen since December 2010 and people make ridiculous assumptions of how 'it looks suspect'. Good grief! Believe it or not, there would be some major snow events in FI for the north in particular. Then again, people won't be happy till they see -15 uppers over the UK. The details are not important for goodness sake, just the pattern and atm there is agreement for a scandi high to develop end of the week! Stop complaining because you are all complaining at something you wanted to see anyway and that is pathetic to be honest. Clearly people need to retake lessons in reading the models properly.

    EDIT: the orientation of the high over scandi at the end of the week, reminds me of the developing high in January 1947 or from the big winters in the past.

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Pretty impressive chart right there, the PV over the UK.. impressive.

    I'd love to see a chart like that verify.. whilst it wouldn't necessarily bring wintry weather, it would bring with it major instability and some wild weather.

    I would, but that would be an absolute insane winter storm. Don't think i have ever seen the PV so strong over the UK. Definite trend on the 18z to something much more interesting for the end of next week. The 18z ensembles remind me of early december, but much colder and have more potential.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

    Definite cold trend! the start of the second half of the month could be interesting period.

    I know I have already said it, but the trend is either cold stormy zonality or the potential for a proper cold snap/spell of winter, from what I can see next weekend onwards.

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    well not many others supporting...

    I'm just saying,

    Got to say, as a storm lover and cold lover, there is plenty of options open on the models today. Just gone through all 20 gfs ensembles, you either get cold zonality and storm systems, lows digging south or some decent cold spells. No sign of anything mild from what I can see or mild weather pumping up from the south after 192, but FI is much closer to the timeframe. But a long way to go yet, but it looks good either way IMO.

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Right I know people won't agree with me here, but I think the outliers on the gfs ensembles towards the start and so close to the time frame have the potential to actually come to fruition. There is always the chance and it has happened before, the models are obviously struggling to decide where the high will move, but I think even though there is around 4 or so outliers that trend cold very early, could be on the right track and I think there is the potential for the rest of ensembles to back track. I don't think we can ignore them just yet, ok, people will think ignore them, but it is unusual to see a few going down quite below -5 uppers at the much closer time frame.

    I know WAA is higher pressure pushing up to Greenland, but what does it stand for and does WAA just count for the area around the atlantic to Greenland or everywhere ?

    Bags of potential from a chart like this,

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1681.gif

    but I can also see why a lot of runs like to keep a mild theme going, because the scenario showing here, is not far from a conintuous mild pattern, the WAA towards Greenland shows the massive potential for cold, maybe that is why we are seeing slight changes at short notice. I can understand the keen emphasis of late for a flatter or mobile pattern etc. But, I wouldn't be surprised to see the ecm coming near to fruition.

    One last thing, it looks very late November/early December 1981, at 168, from what I can see and remember :good:

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    we the fact the jet is diving south then roaring NE behind it has been a precursor to a Scandi high, & if you look at the 168 chart there is a ridge following what I posted- However the renewed jet @168 off the states is to flat & there is no undercut- just all over running-

    either way the modelling of the aleution high will be shocking for the next 72-96 hours & until that settles things will be all over the place- but that high is a big global player-

    its a pity we dont have NH archive charts instead of NW europe charts-

    S

    Actually you can get them on Meteociel somewhere :) I am sure you can go through archives from 1940s onwards or around that time and look at the NH patterns?

    Just an example of NH chart from the past:

    http://176.31.229.22...47-1-18-0-0.png

    So if you want to post any example Steve of the current models and to some of the past archive charts, please do, as it might just show people that anything can happen and that people shouldn't take the collapsing high pressure in FI as gospel or the failing Scandi highs etc.

    This needs a few tweeks

    http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?02-0

    and its not far from this from 1947:

    http://176.31.229.22...47-1-19-0-0.png

    I am sure some of the ensembles or runs in the last couple of days have shown something even closer?

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    The teleconnections have been good for the past few months, I believe GP did post a composite for January with plenty of blocking in the favoured spots. The fact we are still seeing a few big cold outlier in all the ensembles is great, because it kind of supports those composites. We just need a bigger agreement on this. Although I am not expecting anything noteworthy in terms of Scandinavian highs and Greenland Highs till mid month. The atmosphere is currently changing and IMO,building up for proper cold for the remainder of winter. The signals for the deep cold in December 2010, started in in later October/early November with the atmosphere churning and pulling in all the blocks. Right now we having similairish developments and hopefully by the end of the month, it will be enough to give us a noteworthy spell of winter weather.

    One thing I would like to know is what is with the massive outliers from the gfs OP. In the last day, it has calmed down a bit, but its getting going again. Very annoying, considering the amount of ensembles that have shown some lovely teases and the OP has shown the odd northerly blast, but even they haven't been as good as some of the others in the pack.

    Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Obviously with the odds of a SSW taking place, thank God and I know it does not guarantee cold. But I guess the models will adjust and take ionto account the SSW when they pick it up, therefore can we expect colder runs showing there hand and more blocked scenarios in FI?

    I always thought like many others the second half of winter will be the coldest and I think by around new Year time, this place is going to be a very exciting place to be. I expect the models to start giving us some tasty runs and about time too. One only needs to take a look at the cfs run from this morning and know what I mean. The reason I think the models will have more interest around new year time is because I expect the key time for a dramatic pattern change to occur around the second week. Just think if this pattern change comes off and we are to get height rises, which I think is quite likely looking at GPs composites and the February one is brilliant, we will be far away from the horrid autumn pattern we had to endure. December has not been to bad though.

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    heres a summary of how pony the GFS is

    02nd FEB 2009 ACTUAL

    http://www.wetterzen...00120090202.gif

    All GFS 12z's

    9 days away- 204

    http://91.121.94.83/...12-0-204.png?12

    turning the low over but not getting anywhere close

    8 days away 192

    over running the scandi high

    http://91.121.94.83/...12-0-192.png?12

    7 days away 168

    http://91.121.94.83/...12-0-168.png?12

    GFS wakes up & smells the coffee

    6 days away 144

    http://91.121.94.83/...12-0-144.png?12

    Scandi pressure but low moving west gone again-

    5 days away-

    http://91.121.94.83/...12-0-108.png?12

    Spot on....

    If we are going to get some momentum towards decent heights to the NE that will deliver cold then it will be in the next 48-72 hours on the GFS-

    I seem to remember the same conversations on here with the same people 6 years ago..]

    http://www.wetterzen...00120051226.gif

    S

    Excellent post and isn't it also a coincidence (and we have seen this millions of times) that as soon as high res starts, everything get modelled very differently and the block collapses etc. Everything there is spot on and if anything a scandi high will properly develop in the next couple of days as we get closer to the time frame and the heights at the end of low res move closer to the time frame.

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM1-216.GIF?13-12

    Darn, if only everything was moved a few hundred miles North we'd be in business. Not far from a snowy easterly there.

    We don't want to be seeing the holy grail at this stage, hints of easterlies like this is the best we should hope for. If we get a full blown easterly like last year showing in the next run, chances are it will downgrade the intensity. Look at this weeks storm for example. So if these sort of charts continue, then there is every chances they will upgrade etc. Last year, we had hogday charts in FI, only to be watered down. In my experience, the charts need to be watered down first, before they upgrade closer to the timeframe. I mean look at the undercutting low in the next couple of days which starts the cold snap/spell and that only just got handled in the last days or so...

    bracknell+72.gif

    I wonder if this FAX chart would produce a snow event for those just to the North of the low? Would be fairly close I think.

    Midlands and north of england would get snow from that I imagine.

    Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The thing that worries me is when you get this sort of pattern if you get one big storm then usually you can bank that the conditions that were in-place to send that orginal storm in will broadly still be there for the next few behind it.

    The GFS is just...wow!! That low pressure on Friday is amongst the most intense I've ever seen, 100mph gusts into NW England, probably 55-75mph for all of England.

    ECM is brutal as well...even the UKMO probably is at severe gale force for most!

    How bad is Tuesday looking for England? Just watched a video on bbc weather about the two storms next week and he seemed confident and serious about widespread damaging winds for much of england. Are we talking up to 50 to 80mph?
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