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snowlover2009

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Posts posted by snowlover2009

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    The GFS operational looks a little dodgy to me on the 18z, high pressure setting over southern England for all of 6 hours, then synoptics like last year, only to be blown away by an incoming jet? I'm just not ready to believe that will happen personally.

    I do believe somewhere in between the ECM and GFS is likely, but both outputs probably to mild/cold for any kind of confidence in them.

    The GFS has been poor recently, changing from day to day, I'd be very cautious about such an output.

    I think both models have been up and down. The ecm has no support tonight anyway, it was an outlier and is not supported by the other ensembles look:

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1921.gif

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    So lets see, the ecm was on the mild side and is not supported by the mean and then gfs throws us into deep cold. Notice my other posts a few pages back about lows undercutting, which is what we should look for. If we get undercuts of secondary lows you get runs like tonights 18z, incredible. Here is a few:

    Wintry showers to the north and feeling cold and raw in the wind:

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...117/h500slp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...7/ukmaxtemp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...141/h500slp.png

    One of those days where the temperatures get colder through the day and rain turning wintry in the north:

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...5/ukmaxtemp.png maxes of 1 to 5c in the north and wind making it feel bitter and raw

    http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...hgt500-1000.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...0/ukmintemp.png a very cold night -5 in some parts with a chart like that

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...180/h500slp.png

    FI:

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...228/h500slp.png stormy and cold with cold winds

    Remind you of something, go back to the end of November/december 2010. Of course we have a way to go yet and the heights are not as good, but the low over the UK is nearly spot on:

    SNOW/BLIZZARDS for the north and east http://hw.nwstatic.c...252/h500slp.png

    Severe frost: http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/ukmintemp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png Not perfect, but it is there and nice to see

    Wow, what a ramp. Great signs after the benign autumn, things can only get better. Wintry showers possible end of the week and the weekend in the north if verified! Wow! Lets just say that is an amazing for cold and snow fans, if we don't get close to this, we should by far get something seasonal or more normal this coming week and to start December IMO.

    Also, a new thread, new pattern. Great :)

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    You know exactly what I ment, typical of some people here not to help someone who wants to learn ( teleconnections )

    I was only joking.There are posts in the depth discussion thread if you want any more info.

    To get there, it is just under this thread, when you go click on 'forecasting model discussion'. A lot of good analysis, especially from GP etc.

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    It's not just because the main models show mild as far as the eye can see, it's also because we have a rather cold stratosphere feeding the jet. Therefore, we are stuck with this for the month ahead!

    Karyo

    Are we? Is there anything to back this is up, that it is going to stick with us till the end of next month. If you are going to put your neck on the line, then it might be better wording it different. Because you can't really say this. Look at November 2009 and I will say no more....

    No offence, but looking at some peoples expectations of expected weather in the reliable time frame, I find it hard to believe how people can be so confident to what to expect,for the coming winter or next month. Sorry.

    Can we just wait and see the ensembles first when they come out before people start wrist slitting and getting panicky? ;)

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just watched the BBC weather for week ahead on bbc 1, alex deakin said snow for scottish highlands on Friday, very surprising to see the bbc sticking there necks out- correct me if im wrong but arent they a model run behind(the tv forecast)? Before people write off december and look to January and February, things can change very quickly ! i feel we have to wait patiently but our time will come and it won't be too long, we will have snow and cold before february and maybe before january has began.

    I would have thought people would have learnt a lesson after these 2 years for writing things off. It was the same in Autumn 2009 and people writing winter off and look what happened.

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models have pulled the jet further north again so any promise for cold/cool zonality has vanished like it does on most cases.

    I've said a few weeks ago that this autumn has a very 2006 feel to it and as we come close to the end of the season it feels even more so.

    It's looking rather grim for cold lovers with nothing to prevent a very mild December! I can't see the jet easing with the stratosphere so cold.

    Let's hope that Jan and Feb will have something better to offer.

    Karyo

    But you wouldn't be saying this if ecm kept on with the PM air digging south? Only now it is poor for cold fans, people start the moaning of the prospects of winter will bring because of that run. People already righting next month off. :nonono:

    Oh well, there is always hope :D :

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    ECM looking quite grim with a strong high pressure to our south, pumping in very warm air, could be pleasently mild.

    Recm1681.gif

    Have I missed something? Very warm air? Summer was nearly 3 months ago. Besides, the uppers aren't significantly mild anyway for that chart.

    Lets see the ensembles first because everyone was panicking at the gfs 12z when it was an outlier and the ecm this morning was an outlier too. :)

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Read Nick Sussex' post that will explain it much better than i can.

    Basically we have a very cold stratosphere,a very persistant euro high,and the likelihood of the PV getting organized in the near future.

    November is a right off and personally i think the first week of Dec is looking a right off for cold.

    as ian brown said an entrenchment of zonality at northern latitudes looks odds on.

    I look up to there posts, they know what they are talking about, but they can be wrong and we have all been wrong at some point. A lot of the established pros on here have different opinions with the pattern, so no one can really say. No disrespect to GP, but look at his summer forecast and how different reality was.

    TBH, all I want is some interesting weather and more seasonable weather and it looks like we are going to get it. Temperatures are going to feel much colder and some days below average and with the wind picking up, some very chilly days in the wind too. With an organized PV, it can well mean cold zonality with cold westerlies, its no scratch on raw easterlies, but it will do for me after the autumn we have had. That just says how bad it has been IMO for any decent interesting weather.

    What you need to remember is small secondary lows can spawn any time and can change the whole entire pattern completely and for the better if you are after cold. Look at the 00z for example. Remember they pop up out of the blue too. Lets just wait and see.

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The simple fact we have seen some hints towards snow and cold in FI, shows we have seen a small improvement, nothing substantial but better than we have seen in the last few weeks, so i would take it as a graudual improvement, but we have a long long way to go yet, before we can see snow and cold.

    There is potential for wintriness across the north next with the 528 DAM line coming in and the uppers around -5. The fact there is a different pattern to something from the north, west or north west, shows that we are in a much favourable condition. If we were to continue with the euro high, then you would hardly be able to say we are in a better position. :)

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Breaking News Breaking News:

    The GFS ensembles offer some hope. Few going for Greeny High and more ampl.

    Thanks for the teaser, will look at them when they are fully out.

    Also, disappointed with the UKMO 144 hour chart. Once again, any rain or storm tracks too for southern parts and keeps high pressure closer. SURPRISE SURPRISE EH?

    This is going to be frustrating to watch if it has support tonight by the ensembles and ecm, it really is. :)

    The last year, it has been the same, low pressure swings into gear and stays too far north or west to bring little in the way of rain. That is just from the UKMO run, gfs still has plenty of it, for here anyway. Just hope we aren't going to see a backtrack again for the zillionth time in unsettled terms.

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Unsettled run from the gfs, but not as exciting as previous runs. A big difference from the last run. Wonder where it will sit in the ensembles, hopefully another mild outlier. Still more seasonal in the reliable time frame, but a disappointing run in FI and the slight building heights at the end doesn't excite me much, with how much changing there has been.

    We need more secondary lows digging south like the 00z, if we want to see the cold uppers and air pull south.

    Can anyone explain what this Finnish high is please? Any examples? Thank you :)

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Im not so sure thats what GP is hinting at.. A Finland based High is not a Euro High like that we have had recently. A Finnish High is much further north and might allow an easterly flow to develop. I personally think this is unlikely in the short to medium term but i can see this happening in the longer term (2-3 weeks). CFS has hinted at this in recent runs.

    I would imagine a Finnish high is similar to the one 00z showed earlier. It doesn't make sense, why is it a Finnish high? Why not a Sweden high for example?

    Lets remember, Finland is further east out of all the Scandinavian countries, so if a high is to develop there, I can't imagine, it bringing anything significantly mild. Remember he never mentioned Euro high if I recall, just Finnish high I think.

    Is there any examples of a Finnish high? Thank you.

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Snowfest:

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111119/18/288/h500slp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111119/18/288/hgt500-1000.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111119/18/288/ukprec.png Central parts hammered

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111119/18/288/ukmaxtemp.png

    :smilz38: :80:

    A year to the day of the coldest December on record and all that snow

    Unbelievable to even think of this, after the benign weather and charts of late. It is all looking up though. Just saying

    By next weekend, the gfs has temperature for the north below 5c, so it would feel very cold after the recent very mild weather of the last 5 to 6 weeks. Take into account, the wind direction and strength. A massive shock to all. Just in time for December.

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