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snowlover2009

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Posts posted by snowlover2009

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Could well happen, a lot of people are hinting January will be the coldest month!!

    I have a feeling the deep cold will makes its presence mid January and last into early spring, before that a continuation of the current weather with pm air and snow showers at times and feeling cold still. Surely the la nina will peak very soon and decline afterwards, meaning that we will end up with a very weak la nina next year or be around neutral for early spring or roughly. Which would be better for colder weather.

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Whatever happens guys, its a very active pattern coming up soon and we are going to get some very interesting storm potential. Interesting time for storm lovers and a seasonal feel and possibility of some wintriness particularly across the north and temperatures look essentially cold in my view, taking into account how strong the wind will be and the direction as well. So I am happy with this. You generally feel the cold more in a cold active outlook than you do with a proper cold spell. Just my opinion. Of course siberian air is still what I would like to see and definitely would freeze us, just saying. Its going to feel quite cold in the strong winds. I felt it this morning and it was a slight breeze, could have been just me or the mild autumn.

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Its ok saying that BFTP, but you said this last year, that the winter would be good. Yes December was good, sorry outstanding, the rest of winter was crap. No storms at least or anything noteworthy. You don't back up your reasons to say why you think it will be fascinating and it would be welcomed to know why, considering you are a good poster and have a lot of knowledge. Thanks :)

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Blizzards eventually on the northern edge of that massive low for northern England, as the cold uppers dig in behind it, if it verified. Just wow.

    Whilst its always best to be prepared and would urge people to be on the cautious side in terms of making plans and staying tune with forecasts when weather like that is progged its also worthy of a little caution when viewing a model run a week away from a model with an undoubted bias towards these sort of charts, certainly talking of death and widespread distruction is well over the top at this stage.

    Urm no its not. No one is saying it is going to verify, we are just saying a low like that would definitely bring a lot of destruction and death. All storms which are fairly strong, have the potential for death anyway. But if it came off, all the above couldn't be ruled out, particularly destruction.

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This needs to be watched very very carefully.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

    It could bring some very extreme conditions to the uk in all weather types. Winds, snow and rain wise. Could be a very dangerous period coming up and a very eventful start to winter after the dire autumn. No deep freeze like last year, but some very exciting weather showing if you are a fan of the type of storms and high rainfall etc. Could also be some decent snow showers in the north for high ground with the cold uppers being progged. The gfs has support from other models with a very dangerous low showing early next week.

    Lets just say if that came off, it would be a very historic day country wide.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/ukmaxtemp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h500slp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h850t850eu.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/6hrprecip.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/prectypeuktopo.png Probably snow over high ground or to low levels at times.

    But wow, the biggest snow storm ever. I would love this to happen! It is rare to get a perfect synoptic like this, to get snow, with a low tracking south of the uk and bring all that precipitation and wind, along with cold temperatures and cold uppers for snow.

    Fi Eye Candy

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Only one place where this has to go and its this thread. Wow:

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/ukmaxtemp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h500slp.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h850t850eu.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/6hrprecip.png

    http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/prectypeuktopo.png Probably snow over high ground or to low levels at times.

    But wow, the biggest snow storm ever. I would love this to happen! It is rare to get a perfect synoptic like this, to get snow, with a low tracking south of the uk and bring all that precipitation and wind, along with cold temperatures and cold uppers for snow.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Also to add a about 5 or 6 runs showing heights building over scandi or Greenland. The majority of the other runs keep resetting the very unsettled northwesterly incursion or west to east movement. A good deal of runs show some major storm systems coming up, so some lively weather indeed and with the wind directions and strength of wind, it won't feel pleasant to be out in! To add the temperatures are generally looking average to below, particularly for us in the north. No deep cold, but I like the fact of the wind making it feel very raw, which in some ways is better than dry continental cold.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    The ECM seems to be performing strangely inaccurate as of late... is there anything that could be possibly affecting its performance?

    It was this time last year when the ECM was making a show of the GFS, picking up on features way before hand if I remember correctly...

    All runs seem to wobble at times. GFS has also been on the milder side of things recently, but only further out in runs, but as we know it has been on the colder side too, whereas ecm seems to be going on the mild side quite early with little support. I love the ecm mean anyway.

    BTW I disagree, I remember the ecm the odd time, disagreeing with gfs cold synoptics, but there were times where it was vice versa. Gfs had the holy grail of charts last year and the best I have ever seen from all models put together.

    Did I say that, I thought they are about neck and neck on a day to day basis, ECMWF is rarely below GFS if you look at T+120 or 144 but I'd best go and look at what the last few days are showing.

    Remember also that the verification tables I use only go out to T+144. Beyond that and there is a mixed body of opinion as to which T+240 verifies most often.

    It really is best to check all of the models at that range with the 500mb anomaly charts.

    Are the verifications stats for the ensembles or the ops? If it is for the whole lot, then take into account the ecm has no support from the other pack of ensembles.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Once again the ecm has no support whatsoever from the ecm mean. In fact, the 240 chart couldn't be any different to the mean 240 chart. The control goes to the freezer, one of the coldest runs. From that point of view, the euro high at least moving away from us, for the time being and I am confident enough to believe will be seeing plenty of PM incursions, so some snow possible for high ground in the north. None of the ensembles or other models support any euro high on the scale of October and this month, from what I can see.

    If that big block of high to the west of Greenland and north east Canada on Ecm verifies, then I wonder if that could help us shift to something much colder through next month.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    JMA close to GFS.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1921.gif

    ECM lonely again tonight.

    It seems to me as if Gavin is nothing but a mild ramper!! When we do eventually get a cold spell i guess he will be hibernating and re-appear come the first sign of temperatures above 10-12c. Anyway One run from the ECM doesn't mean its gonna be mild, infact there have been hints at not a huge cold spell or snowy, but of a cooldown which would be a reality check to those that have reached the dizzy heighs of 13-16c in recent weeks.

    Mark.

    The ecm has been an outlier for the last 3 or so runs. JMA continues with the unsettled and change to cooler conditions with PM air and windy weather and the thread of wintriness on high ground in the north.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yet people on TWO are also saying the ECM run is mild.

    :cc_confused:

    Looks like the Euro high is re developing after its brief disappearance.

    I wonder how long the Euro High can last it must be getting on for 2 months now is it?

    If only the Euro high could establish its self during our summer months.

    I took that quote from TWO. There is not enough support for the ecm to come off, so we are stuck with the unsettled flow for now, the euro high returning is not nailed on by no means and it is only the ecm that shows this and look at how it has been performing lately. It has Been on top as the mildest and nothing like the ecm mean.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Yes sorry about that I though the Netweather ones updated at the same time as wetterzentral. Any way the Euro High is back in late on.

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

    At least it will be mild still.

    Not with the way ecm has been recently, its had no support from the ensemble mean for the last 2/3 days, what is the betting of it continuing that way?

    Viewing all models, I would say ecm is the only one that seems to look lost, however push the pattern more eastwards it would be a lost more interesting I think.

    I would appreciate more balance when posting weather charts. You only seem to post things that contain mild synoptics and when none show, you don't post charts.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    18z GFS 384 image. Is that a GP Finland HP? :smiliz19:

    BFTP

    Just for you:

    http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png

    is it a good sign? I have to say when I saw this, I just knew this was the Finnish high by the way it looks. Looks like it could set up to be a classic battleground.

    http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png

    http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png Look at that steep drop and we never recover till the end! As long as the mean is below 0, the odds for cold and wintriness stays and increases! The control is colder believe it or not.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    That is one good snippet of info, the fact that the 12z ECM ensembles look nothing at all like the 12z op run and keep the main troughing well and truely to our north/east rather than shidfting it back west like the 12z ECM tries to do.

    yep and the mean is almost a direct northerly and high pressure pushing north into Atlantic, hopefully we can get some heights building. All I have to say, is tonight outputs are the best I have seen since last winter.
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