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snowlover2009

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Posts posted by snowlover2009

    Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlover2009

    Let us get things into perspective, this sort of chatter may be warranted if this was predicted at T48hrs but its T120, so much time for change.

    My advice come back in 2 days and see what the story is. Then make adequate preparations if it is still looking very bad.

    Also very important not to write off Tuesdays system which will bring widespread 60 knot gusts and 70knot in northern and western coasts.

    I am speaking in terms of if it came off. I was the second person to say something on the lines of this, so why you setting me straight? I am aware that we need a few more days to see where this is heading, but that storm could be once in a life time. I am discussing the models. I wish people would not confront people and tell them not to over exaggerate. What I said is true, but only is it verifies. Thats all I am saying. :)

    May I also say that this storm had massive agreement with the main models at 192 hours a couple of days ago and has really not gone anyway off the models. This is very unusual and I would be in utter shock if friday just turned out to be wet and breezy, i really would.

    Northern England Regional Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    God help us...

    post-6181-0-67182000-1323555881_thumb.pn

    I know we were all praying to heavens and saying the same thing about thursdays storm, but this is just absolutely crazy and you are correct 'god help us' and I do not by any means, mean that lightly. If it verifies. The strength of the low, was never forecast to be super strong like scotland on thursday anyway, but it was quite severe at times. That chart is just fricking crazy.

    Atlantic Storms - 7th December 2011 Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I wonder if this is going to be on the same scale as the boxing day storm in 98, or worse?

    This worrying me, the storm looks stronger than the boxing day storm, although I was too young to remember, I was 6, here it is:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119981227.gif

    It is going to be a very dangerous day tomorrow and tomorrow evening/late, very.

    I expect this to take centre stage in the media.

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Am I right in hearing a scandi high above, possibly developing when the PV shifts to the Canada, which can only mean heights towards Greenland or potential of heights to build more frequently or easily. But first we have to get through December? The favourite month for cold with the season of good will etc :( Of course the current charts suggest cold and snow, but not the proper blocked scenarios we have seen in recent years etc.

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18z anyone??

    What?

    I think we can see here how important it is to get the phasing of that Canadian trough and eastern USA low.

    Although the ECM finally delivered a brief northerly I doubt we would get that far with the spoiler shortwave it ejects at 168hrs, once you get that big push of high pressure into southern Europe you need alot of amplification upstream to get a northerly from there.

    For this reason I think its essential we get that early phasing.

    The GFS 18hrs run is better but I don't think much of its troughing over the UK, that would be another hurdle.

    The NOAA discussions are very pertinent to tonights output with below average confidence, just picking out the main points of interest:

    ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGES ARE FORECAST

    OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF ALASKA AND OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC

    OCEAN SOUTH OF GREENLAND.

    FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1

    TO 5, DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE FORECAST RIDGE IN

    THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE FORECAST IN THE

    NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

    If you then look at the ECM ensemble spreads these reflect the uncertainty at 240hrs:

    http://www.meteociel...=1&map=1&type=2

    Looking at the ECM ensemble maps upto 168hrs:

    http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

    A mix of members either pushing the ridge towards southern Europe and those having this further west, unfortunately we don't get to look at the upstream pattern on those which would have been quite revealing.

    In terms of the ECM De Bilt ensembles the operational run is at the top end of members, the control run judging by the initial wind speed when the temps take a dip into the extended range suggests a northerly flow then high pressure ridging in and the wind decreasing.

    http://www.weerplaza...?type=eps_pluim

    Overall you can make a case for several scenarios given the uncertainties with events in the USA and how much retrogression we'll get from high pressure in the Atlantic.

    I still think the northerly has a chance to verify, either way I expect the thread to be busy for the mornings model runs!

    Are you expecting something more special in the morning? :)
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