FetchCB

PROB30 indicating that its not given tho ?

Looking at the forecasts the storms do not seem to have as greater impact on the temperature than would normally be the case. The following broadcast by Met Office probably explains why starts at 24.30 In essence it stats that the air is so hot aloft and the air that needs to be heated is so shallow that very little solar heating is required

METO app going for 38c even with thunderstorms at Heathrow. I guess it will depend on where and when the storms appear and for how long any associated cloud hangs around

Right on top of where I work

I feel I should know the answer to this but according to Met Office for my area the overnight temps will fall to 10c but will peak at 34c a differential of 24c ( I cannot remember such a differential before , even in 2003 overnight temps were 21c) . Does that mean that if temps were to fall to only say 14c then a 38 is possible or is there a maximum temp that can be achieved with a certain airmass?

Very still as well Reminds me of when I used to live in London waiting for the storm from France

http://www.csgnetwork.com/snowraincvt.html

Clearly A bust forecast...this is the video screenshot that is on Met Office Site yesterday with today's rainfall

Just across the River Camel https://www.johnbraycornishholidays.co.uk/webcam/polzeath.html

Indeed reflecting the more inconsistent topography there....or they were pushed for time and just finished it with a couple of clicks

Reflecting the hills around Exeter rather than preference

windchill to -48c..frostbite in 5 mins to exposed skin

and while we wait for the 2cm to bring the country to a standstill Chicago is preparing to come to a standstill....https://abc7chicago.com/live/ because of the cold. they have had their high temperature for today ....-17c ...expected to fall to minus 37c

In modelling chaotic systems there are times when the modelling takes a huge adjustment to change the pattern . In weather terms this would be the equivalent of a huge adjustment needed to move away from a mobile westerly pattern but there are times when the system is particularly chaotic and is extremely sensitive to adjustments that can have massive impacts. It has been clear that the models have struggled beyond day 3 and is sensitive to small changes flipping between extremely cold and mild scenarios every few days with the major factor being the SSW downwelling and my hunch is that until the downwelling has fully played out then the models will continue to be chaotic and that there will be surprises at short notice and reading between the lines of the Met Offices reluctance to do away with its cold outlook, I do not feel it would be a mild surprise.

How accurate has it been this winter?

Are there two on that chart? One just off the north west coast of Scotland and another further north?

And to add of course if FI was so believable we would all be snowed in in a 1947 style Narnia

For it to T+24

Micro details today =major impacts and 10 days time... It's called chaos theory of which the weather and the models that try to predict are prime example. If you look at the ensembles you will see that after 72 hours the various runs with slightly different micro details set at initialisation go of at a tangent.

Agreed....with the way the models are atm .... Risk of light snow with a few favoured places seeing heavy snow but equally a risk of rain and a risk of it being dry....

As far as I'm aware the knowledgeable on here have always said the end of Jan beginning of Feb for the responses of the "positive background signals" to be actually felt. The issue has been the way the models have processed those "positive background signals" and output extreme weather charts since Mid December raising unrealistic expectations

Accuweather podcast on teh difficulties of forecasting snow in the North East US....should try it here un the UK http://dcs.megaphone.fm/ACC3669558113.mp3?key=276cccc77c36457ba883688f373777b1&listener=79356b10-8cde-4901-8266-82bbab10bec3

why?

So that means easterly next week then

I have seen over the years a number of times over the years where the russian high was modelled to migrate westwards....only for to retreat before impacting these isles