Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

FetchCB

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    521

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by FetchCB

  1. FetchCB
    Friday is a our bin day,it has to be out at 6.45 am but isnt emptied until the afternoon. I suspect a lot of it will become "flying debris"
  2. FetchCB
    Oct 87 had winds of 115mph but it only affects a very narrow area and is difficult to predict
  3. FetchCB
    One element to factor in for urban areas is the venturi effect where the wind speed increases as it passes between buildings thus a 90mph gust could reach 115 - 120mph
  4. FetchCB
    I think the comments in regard to the fact that the storm hasn't even been formed yet and therefore subject to change in track and severity are, on the whole, accurate. What might be worth bearing in mind, however, is UKMet have invested significant effort following 1987 significant amount of research into not only the events of 1987 but also how to improve the forecast of these late developing storms. I would not be surprised if UKMO turns out to be the most accurate of all the models but not only that the interpretation of the models by the Chief Forecaster
  5. FetchCB
    Assuming this is an ECM data set? If so I wonder how much of the ECM's tendency to overstate longevity of High Pressure is replicated? EDIT : seems its an amalgamation Seasonal forecasts | Copernicus CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU
  6. FetchCB
    I live in Peterborough and now work from home but it's either that Peterborough has a miserable overcast January baseline or my perceptions are strangely deluded. it's just I don't recall a lot of sunshine here. Would be useful to know what the base is but I suspect its the second option
  7. FetchCB
    Thing is GW is not an entity as say temperature is. GW doesn't override anything its merely a name given to a set of observations. By way of explanation it is said that sea ice is retreating because of global warming. It is higher temperatures that cause the reduction in sea ice and temperature is already included in the forecasts. As a caveat to my statement above I would say that GW is possibly factored into climate modelling by the Hadley Centre by way of assumptions to understand the impacts of different scenarios
  8. FetchCB
    Or is it safe? Admit this is two weeks away. This would be a record
  9. FetchCB
    Actually it is especially in weather forecasting because the initial conditions are not known to enough accuracy to facilitate an accurate forecast(dependent on your definition of accurate, of course). You cannot say with any certainty that any forecast is right or wrong until that time has passed and then its hindcasting
  10. FetchCB
    Worth bearing in mind that a significant population live away from the coast at elevation eg Consett which at 600m asl will most likely have blizzards and to all intents and purposes become cut off. If the power fails due to iced power cables it may well be a while before emergency services could get to them
  11. FetchCB
    On the Ice Roads
  12. FetchCB
    One of those rare mornings here where sitting outside in the shade is actually pleasant. I used to live in South West London where such mornings were common place... Less so in Peterborough
  13. FetchCB
    Generally speaking Cat 5 central pressure usually around 920mb so 45 to go but at rate of 6mb an hour around 6 hours.... Eyewall replacement cycle aside that is
  14. FetchCB
    Looking down the barrel of a gun
  15. FetchCB
    That was my thought then I read up about the hurricane defence system they had put in place post Katrina and storms in 2018/19 spending $14.5 bn dollars Hurricane Storm Damage Risk Reduction System - Flood Protection Authority East WWW.FLOODAUTHORITY.ORG
  16. FetchCB
    I suspect that Katrina is very much on their minds.. Storm surge 11-15 ft (Katrina was 18-20)...cat 4 on landfall The damage to Biloxi was catastrophic https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DxTL4g8eK5rA&ved=2ahUKEwj8iZPPjNPyAhXBnVwKHYIKCFUQxa8BegQICRAF&usg=AOvVaw2et_j9v8741DloxPzq_I5Q I watched a documentary last night on Katrina. In Biloxi it showed a three storey concrete apartment block.... Except previously there were two of them.
  17. FetchCB
    16 years ago to this weekend was Katrina. Worringly some of New orleans pumps are out of action https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_2f508a9e-06b8-11ec-91fd-3f5d8662ebe7.html
  18. FetchCB
    Don't seem to be able to post the chart but the pressure ensemble graph less of an outlier? Possibly suggesting orientation of the high producing differing 850's?
  19. FetchCB
    Currently 26c in a Campsite just outside Bodmin Not a breath of wind... Unreal
  20. FetchCB
    Only started in June 2021
  21. FetchCB
    Heat Health Warning a joint venture with Public Health England. Depending on level issued health bodies including NHS trusts are legally bound to enact certain protocols around management of resources. It is about the effects on health of heat (similar to the cold weather alert on the effects of cold) The extreme heat however encompasses far greater risks such as infrastructure etc and so will be used by rail authorities, local councils. Heat-Health Alert - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
  22. FetchCB
    I think the heat health warnings assess impacts on the health sector,whereas the extreme heat warning seems to assess a greater range of impacts such as more people being at the coast. Such warnings allow local authorities to put contingencies in place officially. I think getting people caught up in the term extreme can be deceiving. I'm sat here in Cornwall 5 miles from the North Coast at 5pm with it feeling distinctly Mediterranean.. I don't recall that happening too often.
  23. FetchCB
    Probably reflecting the ongoing climate change Why the Met Office is launching a new extreme heat warning | Official blog of the Met Office news team BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Although hot weather can often be seen as ‘good news’ and is enjoyed by many, it can have serious consequences. Research shows that, as a result of climate change, we... Like so many warnings issued by Met Office this will have mutli agency impacts and allow formal action to be undertaken by those agencies(mostly health, I suspect) in preparation for the heat
  24. FetchCB
    Funnily enough the met office app (yes I know) has us having heavy snow overnight and into tomorrow morning The fax charts have convergence zones in and around the Wash and I'm wondering if that is what is forming off the coast of North Norfolk. As the temps drop inland that feature could penetrate further inland. Of course now that has been signalled by the Met Office app it won't happen
  25. FetchCB
    I've just noticed that the reason for the yellow warning update from 45 mins ago aside from extending the warning period to end of Wednesday was to drop ice as being the primary hazard in favour of snow
×
×
  • Create New...