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FetchCB

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  1. FetchCB
    Yes this is an example from Aug 6 2006 The reason for this particular day was that it 42C in Hanioti on the Halkadiki Peninsular and that sparked a huge forest fire and we ended up spending the night on the beach
  2. FetchCB
    Obviously depending where you are going but in all the years I've been going to the Greek Islands I've rarely seen high pressure during the summer. In fact the Melltemi Wind which sets in late Jun through Aug through the Ageans is as a result of low pressure over Turkey and higher pressure over the Greek Mainland
  3. FetchCB
    In the 1980's ( which seems to be having a revival in popular culture) I seem to recall that we would get long spells of hot weather drifting up from the south with vicious thunderstorms imported from France ( i lived in London then) . I wonder if , like last year, the plumes will be dry? I know the extended outlook goes for average rainfall for the UK but are those forecast nuanced enough for regional variances? T The Met Office Analysis graphic for last year seems to show the same set up as now with the East being the driest and sunniest with the associated hottest temps. So maybe the rinse and repeat is of 2022 ?
  4. FetchCB
    Perhaps worryingly so
  5. FetchCB
    Wondering whether the snow is being pepped up by the wind coming in from the northeast through the Wash. Last time I saw snow this heavy was in Thames streamer in 2009
  6. FetchCB
    And yet looking at the BBC TV forecast on their website this morning no mention of snow for our area just shown as rain. Temps now falling so what settles may freeze so a lethal combination of poor visibility and black ice a possibility
  7. FetchCB
    Google is your friend Global Patterns: Pacific/North American | North Carolina Climate Office LEGACY.CLIMATE.NCSU.EDU
  8. FetchCB
    Synoptically closer to Burns Day Storm in Jan 1990 although not as deep. Oct 87 the storm approached from the South West and was a singular depression whereas Burns Day had a parent depression in the 950's with a secondary low that tracked across southern Scotland https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/1990/burns-day-storm---25-january-1990---met-office.pdf
  9. FetchCB
    Saw a forecast on a De Moines TV station highlighting the rarity of the storm. On average they would expect to have a 0F temp for 2-4 hrs a year. In the last ten years they have had 27hrs. By the end of today they will have had 24 hrs with plenty more to come. As the front cleared temps fell from 6C to - 16C in 30 mins Day after tomorrow stuff
  10. FetchCB
    As if to give an indication of the uniqueness of the winter so far and as an indicator of why the output in FI may change both the GFS and ECM are forecasting a huge high pressure to migrate from Canada into the Mid Western US States. Next Thursday shows a 1061mb on GFS and 1062mb on ECM. (The record for the contiguous US is 1064mb set in Miles City Montana in 1983) As it drops down with its associated frigid temperatures it interacts with the warmer weather from the Gulf and spawns a large storm in the Eastern US which in turns spins of low pressure to head across the Atlantic thus flattening the attempted N Atlantic ridging I feel it will be the resolution of that low pressure cyclogenesis that will be the key as to whether that ridging can take hold and stop the train of low pressure systems from the US
  11. FetchCB
    Being pedantic your penultimate paragraph means that it cannot be an outlier as the definition of an outlier is a result that is significantly out on its own and therefore would not be supported by any other members. Of course it also depends on what you are measuring. The following two charts are for Cambridgeshire. Top the t850 showing the op at the bottom end of the ens. However the second showing air pressure shows that it is definitely not an outlier albeit at the top of the ens. My take on this is that there is a set of ensembles that support high pressure and that dependent on the orientation it could be very cold (Easterly). Looking at the two charts together does not indicate an outlier. Taking one chart and highlighting one section would be as you say, cherry picking
  12. FetchCB
    As if to reinforce my impression of the over progressivsness of the ECM it goes from a 968mb low in Biscay on Wed night to a 1020mb high 36 hours later and then a further 36 hours later has biscay under the influence of a 948 mb low in the mid Atlantic. That is a lot of dynamism in a model and with that comes a big possibility that if it is wrong early in the time frame then the differences thereafter will be significant
  13. FetchCB
    Reading the Met Office further outlook seems to suggest that they believe that the low approaching from the south west will slide into France as the only mention milder in the south and west and cold in the North. This scenario which would drag colder air from the North.
  14. FetchCB
    Not so sure a about that. My sense is GFS always to keen to blow away a cold airmass and whilst ECM used to be too stubborn with a cold airmass has over the last two years moved towards GFS in overblowing low pressure systems and being a tad too progressive at times. Met Office has been stable and given it is our home model I always look for what it's forecasts are to verify model output. It's current forecast hints at a milder interlude for the south and west next weekend but I would say looking at how the models are changing on a daily basis that nothing is written in stone after three days
  15. FetchCB
    Met office radar app showing light precipitation for my area on Monday as the winds switch to North East. Nothing in forecast though I wonder if this will be a rerun of March 2018 when it started with very fine snow which became very sense and ended up giving us a few cms
  16. FetchCB
    The key appears to be a high pressure cell by Iceland. In the previous run it seems to drop down and prevent the low pressure from approaching but on this run it's further north and has less influence. Also the low pressure itself has retained its intensity. According to the NHC the storm is to merge with a trough. I guess its that process will determine its intensity. This could be the usual GFS scenario of eroding cold high pressure in favour of an approaching low pressure...... Or not
  17. FetchCB
    Nature has a way of balancing its books. After every dry period a wet spell after every cold spell a warm one Unless of course man has broken nature!!! ( I deliberately avoided the blindingly obvious analagy to the current political and economic situation )
  18. FetchCB
    It's a game of risk. I don't think we truly understand the American way of life. They live with very little safety net unlike here in the UK. No NHS, no universal benefits and as a consequence are less risk averse than we are. People want to live there and builders will build to accommodate that. It will only be if local and state authorities forbid it and given American political tendencies of small government that is unlikely.
  19. FetchCB
    Around 2:46 you see the storm surge from the left
  20. FetchCB
    Interestingly or slightly bemusing is the NHC expect Ian to make landfall as Cat4 despite undergoing RI for last 4 hrs and being so close to Cat 5 Maybe a degree of caution around current measurements?
  21. FetchCB
    That is true and Michael showed us that as well
  22. FetchCB
    Passing of Hurricanes Cools Entire Gulf EARTHOBSERVATORY.NASA.GOV Seems even close to the coastline where the depth is around 50m cold water upwelling occurs
  23. FetchCB
    It's that fine line between stalling to gain strength and stalling to allow upwelling of colder water. It is forecast to slow. Whether or not as it interacts with land it will tighten its circulation I'm not sure
  24. FetchCB
    Latest recon seems to indicate that with an extrapolated central pressure of 939 mb Ian is becoming cat4. NHC update at 2am EDT forecasts strengthening until landfall but I'm not sure there is time for a Cat 5 unless it follows the same pattern as Michael which suddenly transitioned to Cat5 just before landfall
  25. FetchCB
    Wind starting to stir in Fort Myers https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/fort-myers-beach-live-cam/
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