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Everything posted by FetchCB
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Worth also bearing in mind is that it will be coming up against the tide which will be possibly higher than forecast due to the wind. Within the Strathmore valley however there are towns that will be at risk, Brechin,Forfar and Montrose where water could pile up in the basin with nowhere to go
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With climate change it does seem likely that these events will become more prevelant so might become a reality It may instill in the general public of the type of danger rather than a generic weather warning
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Think one of the atmospheric rivers that hit California is called the Pineapple Express. In the case of the US sometimes it's hard to discern whether the storm name is from the US weather sevice or the media.
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To quote Met Office Storms are named to aid communication when severe weather is in the forecast. This can help everyone to keep themselves, their property and businesses safe and protected at times of severe weather. I don't think it's necessarily just wind. The twitter post (doesn't seem to want to be posted here) does seem to show a single system to the South West
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Hurricane Idalia
FetchCB replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Eye Wall replacement Cycle- 128 replies
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Hurricane Idalia
FetchCB replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Looks like Cedar Key has now lost power- 128 replies
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Hurricane Idalia
FetchCB replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Reed Timmer is in Cedar Key Live now on you tube . Storm surge is now started there- 128 replies
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Surely it depends on what precedes it. Weeks of 16 c then 25 will feel hot but weeks of 30+ then the reverse will be the case. Point in case been here in Greece for 9 days in 30+ and will be by the weekend have 3 days at 38-40. Return to uk to 22c. Fairly reasonably by UK standards but most likely will feel baltic in comparison
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UKV looks like a bust for today as it showed at 2pm a rash of showers breaking out from midday over the Northern home counties Latest radar shows nothing and the storms pushing up from France is wider than predicted but the last couple of frames imply they might be dying as they hit the South Coast
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I would admit it's my preference but my other half hates "silence"..
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I understand that but the way the weather is these days it's one or the other..seems the middle ground which has made the UK a favourable location from an historical point of view is a diminishing option
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Still in the garden.... 2 bottles down... Only with a humid airmass...
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Rather have this sitting in the garden with a glass of wine listening to play lists than sat indoors pouring with rain and cold.
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Looking at Met Office rainfall radar it was raining here in Petweborough at midday to 1pm... Felt a few spots nothing else... Now high cloud but shadows on the ground 26 degrees and humid
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Generally tend to agree but some of the beaches in Northumbria are breathtaking if the sun is shining
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
FetchCB replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the last two GFS runs the critical point seems to be next Monday. In the first model run the trough moves to Bay of Biscay but is then absorbed and pulled West by a low pressure system mid Atlantic. In the overnight run the low in the Bay of Biscay intensifies and moves North which pushes the high away and then allows the Atlantic to move back in. I'm not convinced by the last scenario for the reason of historically GFS can overblow low pressure systems and underplay high pressure persistance. Recently it also seems that the ECM has adopted this tendency at around day 10. So for me it won't be for another couple of days before get a true sense of where things are going and at that point we will have UKMO take on things -
South West London which via a1, a426, M1, 25 is 120 miles.. So yes roundabout route
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20 Yrs ago the headlines were that climate modelling showed that London would have a climate similar to Paris and that the Al fresco lifestyle would thrive. Since then I have moved 120 miles from London to Peterborough and the climate in the last 6 yrs or so feels very much like London did 20 yrs ago. Long spells of dry, warm to hot temps. Whilst statistically 20 yrs is a very short dataset over millenia but I do believe the climate has changed and is on an upward trajectory both in terms of heat and dryness, possible more like southern France. Strategically with the water companies being in Private hands there appears to be a lack of strategic thinking across the UK of moving water North to South. Anglia water is building a pipe to shift water around East Anglia but it needs to be bigger than that.
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
FetchCB replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wonder if, like last year the westward progression of the trough is being over modelled. I seem to recall a breakdown being constantly modelled and it kept being pushed back because the westward progression never materialised. If that is the case then there is some serious heat building in North Africa /southern Spain that could be drawn northwards -
Currently enjoying the novelty of clouds moving in a different direction than the last 3 weeks
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Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
FetchCB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Crystal clear in Peterborough