FetchCB

To a degree I understand how those on the East Coast can be complacent (understand not agree) but those on the west. Of the 160 that have made landfall in Florida only 17 have done so on the west coast. Hopefully the uniqueness of this situation will mean people will take it seriously, the alternatives are unfathomable.

America's Sea Level Has Risen 6.5 Inches SEALEVELRISE.ORG Sea level rise is increasing. Flooding has increased by an average of 233% in the last 20 years. Nationally, sea levels have risen 6.5 inches since 1950. Higher seas mean more... The sea has risen 8 inches since 1950 in Florida. Not withstanding the threat from storm surge the sea rise means there is less ability in Florida to absorb rainfall as the aquifers are high and underground storm drains are already flooded

That UKMet track must be giving the residents of Tampa nightmares. The worst case scenario is a track slightly to the north of Tampa causing the storm surge to pile up into Tampa Bay causing catastrophic flooding with over 3m homes at risk. Apparently Tampa Bay has not seen that type of flooding in over 100 years

Track looking ominously like Michael now. The only thing that may prevent the same insensity is the shear as it approaches the panhandle. If it doesn't materialise then could make landfall as major hurricane. Worth noting that landfall insensity appears to have been uprated overnight

That was the premise behind the film day after tomorrow, cold Arctic meltwater overturning the Gulf Stream eventually shutting it down

That was my thinking

Instinctively you lean towards more storms. The heat content providing fuel for tropical systems that would last longer, plunges from the Arctic creating rapid cyclogenesis? How much of that affects us I'm not sure but I think the NE US are in for a lively autumn /winter

The one in the gulf is due to head north east possibly into the Pacific and the wave that is exiting the coast of Africa is given a low chance of storm formation so it seems that it is unlikely to affect our weather

The thing is it's High Pressure and depending where it settles and how it orientates will give differing outcomes. In winter you can be on the wrong side and get grey dross but on the other side a winter nirvana. I suspect that all models will oscillate between outcomes this week with GFS today showing one possible, albeit extreme, scenario tomorrow could quite be the reverse.

Signs of the cloud that may inhibit temps today moving up from France. What is not clear from Met Office is the type of cloud cover so it could be very high cloud cover. A couple of clouds have appeared over the last 30 mins first all week

“For those of us that follow the ensembles closely“...... Clearly you do not because if you did you would understand that with the GFS and GEFS are not the same. Different resolutions and starting parameters. The weather is a chaotic system and that means small changes can and do have profound differences down the line. In this case it is no surprise that GFS changed day to day even within 24 hrs. All models do it. You seem to be cherry picking parameters to suit your argument that the GFS is drastically faulty. However if you look in my region the forecasted temps that you claim are so wrong are the same that is forecasted by the Met Office today The skill of the forecaster is looking at computerised models and interpreting them. They look at ensembles and then determine whether the operational is valid, assess whether known issues within the model may be influencing output and adjust the forecast accordingly. To be frank, 1 or 2 degrees when a temperature forecast is 36C is neither here more there it is damn hot. Honestly you need to make better reasoned arguments backed with proper analysis and cut the use of widely inaccurate language to prove your point. Unless, of course, the purpose of the use of language is to provoke a reaction in which case that is a different matter altogether

Fax charts do not show rain, they show fronts. Fronts can and do cross the UK producing no rain, although more typically dying out as the cross the country. They do not show instability they show pressure. Low pressure does not equate to instability as there are other factors in play as was the case after the last heatwave when a low pressure moving up from Iberia produced very little rainfall in the south east due to unfavourable conditions higher in the atmosphere You are interpreting the fax charts to suit your bias.

The operational is more accurate from a modelling perspective as it is run at a higher resolution, as pointed out by Paul, than the other members. The other members also have their starting parameters changed to allow for the possibility that the initial observations may not be 100% accurate,so it is by design that they start different. By continuing to highlight this difference as a way of highlighting the GFS operational is somehow wrong does you no favours, it merely highlights a lack of understanding. In regards to the operational being a massive outlier. It is an outlier that is true, however there are some ensemble members that are fairly dry as well so yes an outlier but not massively so.

That's because each member is started with slightly different parameters to allow for the fact that initial observations are not statistically perfect Ensemble forecasting - Wikipedia EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Met office forecast @11am for Heathrow show 35C today ,36C Tomorrow and 35C Sunday . It was 31.3C at midday , a figure it didn't reach until 1pm yesterday when the Max was 32.5. Dew point was lower for the same temp as well. So i can believe those numbers.

I think you've misread the post. I think ( as I am not Nick) that the phrase "climate conspiracy garbage" was aimed at those who believe that the argument for climate change was a conspiracy and who cited the use of colours on a chart as an example of the conspiracyor at least that's how I read it

Indeed, My dad who was a builder ( now retired) hair thinned in later life and is now visiting Hospital every couple of months to have moles removed from his scalp. I'm following in his footsteps and have my hair shaved quite low so use a scalp sunscreen 50+

Above post from model thread However the GFS points do not match where the official stations are and as a consequence you introduce a sampling margin of error and therefore to make a statement of fact as he was doing so would be wrong, especially in the assertion that the GFS was wrong.

UKV is part of the Met Offices unified model. Its not based on the UKM its part of it. Unified Model WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications. Numerical weather prediction models WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Unified Model is run operationally in a number of configurations for weather forecasting at the Met Office.

This came up in my playlist just now. Lyrics seem apt

As was the case in July when the GFS operational picked up the signal and was proved right.

My wife is from the North East, I have spent the last ten years persuading her that the need for sunscreen has nothing to do with the temperature. The point is that the vast majority of people are not weather enthusiasts and a sense of impacts of a heatwave. To my mind naming of heatwaves will give a sense of urgency and importance to them. As for the IQ.... I get the sarcasm but unfortunately the people that suffer most in these situations are those that are challenged in that area.

Climate change: Will naming heatwaves save lives? - BBC News Seems to be a sensible way forward, although by definition you would also want to do the same for cold weather

I think what is new is that temps of 26 and 27 C feel normal and in addition to this the cloudier periods, at least here in Peterborough, feel warmer. Maybe it's the soil moisture, or lack of it. I look out of the window and it looks grey but when you go outside it's not cold. If soil moisture was higher then it may well have been a couple of degrees cooler and the wind maybe a little colder. This feels like how the south east felt in those years but this time 100 miles further north