snowfall09
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
snowfall09 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Forgive me if I'm wrong but isn't the current circulation off the coast of Portugal further north than modelled? -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
snowfall09 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 18z ends up broadly similar to the 12z around 264 hours with high pressure building back in from the west. Il take that! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
snowfall09 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi All, Would someone be so kind to post the GFS roll out times please. Thanks -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
snowfall09 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello. I hope you don’t mind me asking but where can I view the UKMO charts? -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
snowfall09 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi all, Would someone be able to list the different models and their roll out times please. Thanks -
Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards
snowfall09 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
ESTOFEX Issued a level 1 for the SW & Wales today (24th Aug) A level 1 was issued for parts of Great Britain and Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes. ...Great Britain and Ireland... At the end of the forecast period, the cold front enters the LVL1 area. It is emphasized by a maximum in the LL moisture convergence field which indicates a small moisture tongue. Along that tongue forecast soundings indicate the possibility that a bit (MU)-CAPE can develop which enhances the possibility for DMC. However, the development of CAPE and thus the possibility of thunderstorms along the cold front is the main factor of uncertainty. If storms indeed develop, they can benefit from high DLS and strong mid level winds. In combination with the entering dry intrusion with descending dry air from above, the threat of severe to extremely severe wind gusts is enhanced. In addition, also LLS is high and LCLs are low. Therefore the development of a short tornado event can not be ruled out. -
Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
snowfall09 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Things about to get very interesting for Jersey, watch here - Jersey beach cam WWW.JERSEY.COM Discover St. Ouen's Bay, on the west coast of Jersey. With miles of sand washed by rolling Atlantic waves, the magnificent St. Ouen’s Bay is a natural playground for surfers and adrenaline seekers. -
Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
snowfall09 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
What are the chances of the SE seeing imported multi cell storms from France tomorrow night? -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards
snowfall09 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Looking promising. DISCUSSION Along a line from Jersey to Bordeaux, a line of storms has formed, featuring embedded waves/supercell structures has formed in an environment characterized my modest instability (400 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but strong wind shear. With an 850 hPa wind speed of around 25 m/s near the line, and the wavy appearance on radar, a distinct threat of severe wind gusts exists. Locally, some large (2-4 cm) hail may occur and, in addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the strong low-level shear (10-18 m/s 0-1 km). The storm system is projected to travel north-northeastward. Model guidance suggests it should weaken during the evening as low-level cold air advection from the west intensifies and upper-level support is weak. -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards
snowfall09 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards
snowfall09 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Storm Forecast Valid: Mon 24 Jun 2019 06:00 to Tue 25 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC Issued: Mon 24 Jun 2019 03:02 Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE A level 1 and 2 were issued across western France and southern UK mainly for severe wind gust, large hail and tornado chances, and in Ireland for spout-type tornadoes. A level 1 was issued across southeastern Europe mainly for large hail and extreme rainfall. SYNOPSIS The strong southerly flow east of an Atlantic low has advected a layer with steep low to mid level lapse rates out of the Sahara and Spain northward into central France, where high low level moisture converges in a thermal trough. Meanwhile, southeastern Europe continues to be under influence of an upper cold pool, with relatively weak flow but significant CAPE. DISCUSSION ...Western Europe... A level 1 over central France illustrates mainly the uncertainty of storm initiation, where MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg meets 500 m2/s2 0-3 km SREH and 20-25 m/s DLS. Td2m forecast to be 19-21C. Across western France and southeastern UK various models produce precipitation likely from elevated convection along the cold front, with weaker CAPE. The lifting action of shortwave troughs also reaches central France, and relatively weak CIN is calculated on the convergence line. However, models hesitate producing any storm in the otherwise severe weather supportive environment, except for an evening/night MCS developing most likely over Normandy, moving NNE-ward. Initially convection will start as clusters of cells including rotating ones (supercells) even if elevated base, which can produce very large hail and severe gusts. If rooted in the boundary layer of the surface convergence line, then with 0-1 km shear exceeding 10 m/s and the strong SREH also tornadoes are possible. However, such collocation is not what COSMO model suggests, which keeps nocturnal development west of the line. But if indeed clustering into an MCS over the late evening, a squall line may form with the potential of organized severe wind gusts. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
snowfall09 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Streamer showing on the 12z GFS update -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
snowfall09 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Possibly due to there being a mixture of percip -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
snowfall09 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
snowfall09 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
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Latest GFS run calls for widespread heavy snow throughout Friday with a low probability of it turning to rain.
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Does this now mean theres a higher chance of seeing a Kent clipper setting up overnight?
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Please correct me if I'm wrong but winds seem to be coming from more of a NEly direction rather than an ENE that was being modelled and forecast. Surely a Kent streamer has as much chance of setting up than a Thames streamer at the stage?
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Im surprised how light these showers are giving the very cold upper air. I was expecting more green and yellows on the radar
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
snowfall09 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where am I able to view the ICON model? -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
snowfall09 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->
snowfall09 replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Is this feature currently moving faster than the current forecast? -
SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->
snowfall09 replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Live HD cam in central London, things about to get interesting. http://www.guoman.com/corporate/web_cam_page.html