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Mr_Pessimistic

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Everything posted by Mr_Pessimistic

  1. Mr_Pessimistic
    Well well, an inch of lying snow here this morning, very unusual.. Thought It would have been rain..
  2. Mr_Pessimistic
    As is always the case, ppn falling across the whole of the uk accept Norfolk and Suffolk, the most easterly place, in an easterly. Happens every time, jeez I hate living here.
  3. Mr_Pessimistic
    All looks a bit boaring to me, a brief south easterly, no decent uppers, no cold pool rushing towards us, and a reforming of the PV afterwards, now people talking about charts I'm march lol. Optimism, or just kidding yourselves/others, yet again. I'm commenting on the model output before this gets moved.
  4. Mr_Pessimistic
    Well I'm guessing the met office are seeing something in the predicted strat warming as their 16-30 dayer now suggests the low possibility of a more prolonged cold spell second half of Feb.. I'm sure that will change again tomorrow though..
  5. Mr_Pessimistic
    Nothing is nailed until t24 if that.. Too many people talking nonsense,, nothing but dry chilly boring high pressure over us next week. Stick to met office, not rampers on this forum thinking they can predict the weather when they can't, getting peoples hopes up for no reason. Same every year.
  6. Mr_Pessimistic
    Well,, the one place the met predicted snow (Norfolk & Suffolk), yet again, is about the only place that didn't get any.. Surprise surprise, every time. Same old story like the past 30 years. Yawn.
  7. Mr_Pessimistic
    Actually, I think I'm going to change it to "Mr realistic"...
  8. Mr_Pessimistic
    Nobody knows is the correct answer. People on here fall for the same LRF nonsense every single year. Watch the Mets forecast for a MAX of 5 days ahead to get the general picture of will it likely be warm or cold, no details, and you won't dissapoint yourselves, time, and time again.
  9. Mr_Pessimistic
    Great read, so many variables, but I hope your near the mark.. I'm sure some unforseen situation will appear, messing all that hard work up though, as it always does.. But thanks anyway! :-)
  10. Mr_Pessimistic
    Too much faith in all of the teleconnections, and too much faith in any of the computer model output can and usually does lead to failure, however great ones knowledge. Until the knowledgeable ones on here have access to all of the data that the mo does, then it simply is not possible to accurately forecast the weather further than 3-4 days, as shown nearly every year. While the mo, with all their combined knowledge and computing power now seem to have a pretty good grasp on the general long term patterns, as shown over the last several years now. So the conclusion I made years ago, is stick with the met else you will be dissapointed time after time.
  11. Mr_Pessimistic
    Was some of the heavyist snow I've ever seen here half hour ago, even settled for a while too. Shame its melted already.
  12. Mr_Pessimistic
    Wooooow, a whole ten minutes of wet snow that didn't settle, now nothing. Those of you hoping for snow from some sort of easterly, don't kid youselfs or listen to the massive hype in the mod. There maybe a fleeting easterly as the low pulls away, but by that time pressure will be too high for any ppn. Same story as every year.
  13. Mr_Pessimistic
    Dry dry dry, been saying that for over 30 years now. Unbelievable. Not expecting anything at all from this cold spell, just like every other winter including 2010. Yawn.
  14. Mr_Pessimistic
    I know its off topic, but TWO winter forecast has been pretty much spot on so far, and they predict a cold snowy Feb. Just something to raise spirits in here..
  15. Mr_Pessimistic
    . And if the strat warming does 'propagate' down to the trop, splitting the vortex into two pieces, I fully expect us to be stuck right in the middle of where the waa forms, giving us dry boring weather under high pressure. I will be surprised if the Greenland lobe backs west enough to put us on the cold side. All happening a month later then all the forecasts predicted, as it usually seems to..
  16. Mr_Pessimistic
    I must admit (being a computer nerd myself) when I saw the 3d images you plotted the other day of the strat/pv, I was impressed, it makes the whole subject that bit easier to visualise (for me anyway). Now waiting for dropbox to removed its restrictions on the links you posted, but I think I may be waiting a while! Anyway, well done chaps, a great thread as always, looking forward to the near future, ive a feeling its all about to get moving over the next couple of weeks, let's hope any warmings are strong enough and positioned well enough to smash that annoyingly persistent lobe of pv far way from its current and usual home!!
  17. Mr_Pessimistic
    all the other models you quote are models where results can be tested and repeated in a lab of some sorts. you cant do that with a climate models or weather models, it just takes a long time to verify results, and due to this, it makes them very unreliable, as shown by the three top weather models beyond three days. im assuming, and probably quite rightly, that the climate models are just as unreliable. so anyone dare to answer the question put to bornfromthevoid? and im not suggesting we put our heads in the sand and ignore the results given by climate science. i suggest we wait to see some obvious sighns of global warming (of which there are none yet accept a tiny temp rise over the years, which could be just a natural fluctuation, we need more time to know for sure.), and if we start seeing some, we adapt to the situation rather than suggest silly ideas (and scare mungoring) which just wont be implemented anywhere else in the world other than our small island.
  18. Mr_Pessimistic
    not much time so i will reply more tomorrow depending on youre response, but please just answer one question for me then void,, are you seriously telling me that you think that the climate is alot easier to predict, and less complex than the weather? i will be supprised if youre answer is yes. knocker - youre statement was answered in my previous one if you care to read it again. theres no need to get personal, it just makes you look like an idiot. i wasnt dismissing anything, im saying a general view on something is not always right and one should always question things, especially when reguarding such complex matters. surely even you can understand that.. not much time so i will reply more tomorrow depending on youre response, but please just answer one question for me then void,, are you seriously telling me that you think that the climate is alot easier to predict, and less complex than the weather? i will be supprised if youre answer is yes. knocker - youre statement was answered in my previous one if you care to read it again. theres no need to get personal, it just makes you look like an idiot. i wasnt dismissing anything, im saying a general view on something is not always right and one should always question things, especially when reguarding such complex matters. surely even you can understand that..
  19. Mr_Pessimistic
    i knew either you or gray-wolf would be in here with a responce! but, no, i understand not all climate science is based on computer models, and, to be fair, that is not what i said. but they are using those models to try to predict the future climate. i also understand the difference between the weather and climate, and how global warming enthusiasts like to point out the differences regurly to those that they think do not understand. but i very much doubt that predicting the climate is any easier (infact probably harder and more complicated than short term weather), as shown by the innacuracys of their previous climate & temperature predictions. you also assume i am dissmissing years of science, when i am doing no such thing. actually, i am not convinced either way as i feel i do not know enough about the subject. but, i do know that people are not always right, even if there are many with the same, scientific view. people still need to consider this fact and not to just jump on the bandwaggon. scientists do not say agw is a fact (controry to what the media says), they say it is the most likely scenario, and the most likely scenario is not always the right one, especially when it comes to matters so complex as the climate.
  20. Mr_Pessimistic
    are you?, and do you? you are doing the same thing.. he is quite right in my opinion. the press gets hold of any weather related story and links it in with global warming (i dont use the term climate change, as climate change is, and has always been, not something created by us) to create a dooms day scenario. the thing is, most people dont think for themselves, beleive what they hear (especially if it is banged into you day after day), and dont question anything. if it were not for people like lazerguy, we would all be religious like those in other less educated countrys who are stopped or killed just becase they question what the masses beleive. problem is, the scientists are basing their argument on computer models, and we all know how reliable they are beyond three days! enough said i think..
  21. Mr_Pessimistic
    an impossible question to answer unless one has been alive for a million years, and has lived at every part of the globe for those million (or more) years, and you would need an exceptional memory! (or a big note pad!). but personally, i doubt it, they are just reported more these days due to technology. but then, im a "denier" (or realist).
  22. Mr_Pessimistic
    i wish you would! as i dont think i can stand another summer like last year,,, i work outside (that includes winter too), and it was hell. i cant get cool in summer, i can wrap up warm in winter.
  23. Mr_Pessimistic
    Im hopeing for a repeat of 1816 - "the year without summer"! as someone with light sensitive eyes (after a eye injury) and someone that hates the heat, i would be over the moon with this (minus the crop failures and famine!), and plenty of snow thrown in! That would certainly cause some headlines! come on you volcanoes!!
  24. Mr_Pessimistic
    great to have youre input in this thread too recretos enjoy reading you technical posts in the strat thread, very clever chap!
  25. Mr_Pessimistic
    so, chaps and chapesses, any idea on the likely wind gusts based on the chart below? as its now getting into the reliable timeframe.. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=0
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