Cheshire Freeze

Almighty thunderstorm just gone through Stockport, Manchester. Torrential rain and frequent lightning. Caught some lightning on my HD video phone as the cell passed.

They could be right..... then again looking at the chart it suggests 90% of Europe more likely to have an above average winter and I bet if we could see the temperature forecast for the whole of the northern hemisphere it would probably show something similar. I'm not getting dragged into the whole METO warm bias debate but to me, having seen their forecasts for years prior to this one, it seems they seldom predict colder than the norm and if they can fail to spot such a winter as the one just gone I don't hold out much hope for any projected forecast. Furthermore, last year the model didn't even just sit on the fence and produce no clear signal, it showed above average- the exact OPPOSITE of what materialised with Europe having one of its coldest winters in years. Then again, doesn't mean it won't be right this year

Endless showers packing in here since early evening on the northwesterly breeze. Current temp: 10.1C

Preliminary Winter Thoughts 2010/2011 Here are my preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter as I promised last month. Factors affecting weather forecast from the period 01.12.2010- 28.02.2011 are as follows: State of the NAOThe current La NinaQBOContinued low solar activityCurrent North Atlantic Sea Surface TemperaturesPotential SSW eventsLooking at the current long range model output for the period in question sheds little certainty on what the likely winter patterns will be; however at present there is a consistent signal for the winter to open on a below average note in terms of temperatures. This can be misleading however as the below average temperatures could quite easily be as a result of the models picking up on an inversion 'faux cold' scenario a la December 2008, with high pressure sat across the country. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif This link shows the likely pressure distributions over the coming months, though I must stress this is just one model. December and January show blocking centred around or just south and east of Greenland which is a good sign if you are looking for snow and cold weather to dominate. However, given the lack of detail this far out it is impossible to say whether a block over Greenland would result in a west based or east based -NAO. By February, the block has slipped to lie across the UK which pretty much backs up the thoughts of Stuart (Glacier Point) If that pressure distribution was to unfold for Feb as seen there, a rex block of some description would probably prevail with settled, dry and cold weather in the south and milder Atlantic weather dominating further north into Scotland and Northern Ireland. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html The link above illustrates the current state of the La Nina fairly well. It has been mooted that a strong La Nina can prohibit the chances of a cold winter; however, the way I am seeing things at the moment is that things are a little bit different this time round. As BFTP (Fred) has stated, we appear have entered the dominant La Nina juncture of the perturbation cycle which hasn't showed its hand for around half a century until recently. Southward Shift of the JetstreamSince the woeful summer of 2007, the jetstream has been behaving strangely and has presented us with its tendency to migrate further south than has been the case pre 2007. Also showing a tendency to amplify and 'buckle' in places bringing unusual synoptics to some areas (European winter 2009/2010, Russian heatwave, Pakistani floods as obvious examples). This southward shift enables to PF to push further south than might usually be the case and increasing the risk of cold to affect more areas. December 2010 Characterised by frequency of North to Northeasterly air masses. Strong jet stream forcing depressions to undercut blocking around the Greenland area. Northern Ireland and Scotland often dry but cold- lowest average temperatures for the month. England and Wales are likely to be cold and wet, especially the further southwest you are situated- repeated milder interludes may proceed bands of sleet and snow with the middle part of the country experiencing the greatest instances of snow falling. CET estimate: 3.5-4.5c BELOW AVERAGE January 2011 A month of two halves. A disturbed and cold first half of the month beckons I feel, High pressure centred to the northwest maintains a cold feed but low pressure encroaches from the south at the same time. In between, often frosty and ocassionally very wintry with snow showers and some longer outbreaks of snow towards north east facing coasts especially. Second half of the month sees things warm up a bit as a tropical maritime airmass encroaches to bring spells of rain and only hill snow to most areas. CET estimate: 3.2-4.2c AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE February 2011 After a spell of unsettled weather to finish off January, February is an uncertain month. At the moment I am going for a settling down of the weather, high pressure centred across south east Britain and the Low Countries ensures cold and frosty weather at night but pleasant by day. For Northern Ireland and Scotland, a mild, cloudy Atlantic feed is likely to bring a dull month but also milder temperatures. CET estimate: AVERAGE

What amazing charts they are, that is some decent cold pool there!

I was thinking that too Blizzards Can't even remember the last time I even heard a rumble of thunder here.

Sweltering at a stuffy 25C in my little bedroom at the minute. I daren't open the window because everytime I do, a massive spider crawls into my room which I spot an hour later!

I agree. I think we are in 'unknown' territory at the moment and I believe that what 'should' happen given the various teleconnections as suggested by GP and Chinomaniac et al, may not materialise at all. As you say there does seem to have been a general southwards shift of the jet stream and this is playing havoc with the theories on what 'should' happen and is producing some classic synoptics. At this point I would bank a cold November and December and keep touching wood that January and February can produce some cold and interesting weather also.

Glad to see this back up and running again. In terms of the coming winter, I have seen no clear consensus as of yet to help make a decision either way, in terms of what the common theme throughout the winter will be. GP hinting at a cold Nov and December period with a sinking mid Atlantic high later into Jan and Feb BFTP hinting that if the pattern gets locked and the jet stream remains far enough south then the high may not sink as suggested Berometer seemingly advocating record mild courtesy of the 'census forecast' All pie in the sky at the moment but the drama will undoubtedly unfold over the coming weeks.

Yeah Woodford does record low temperatures but as for early Jan, a few places around Cheshire fell to around -15 to -18 unoficially on that one evening; it was perishingly cold and you had to be here to appreciate it. I heard some unofficial reports of -15 around the Nantwich area and I can well believe it. As for tonight, I wonder if anywhere will manage the air frost.

Just had an almighty downpour here, no thunder though. You about SnowGo?

wish i had some weather to take photos of! Got 8MP and HD video capture on my phone yet there's nothing weatherwise to use it on! Keep missing the action here

That really is shocking! Look how it just skirts around

I'll tell you what really depressed me.....6th Jan 2010. Continuous snow showers fed in one after the other about 15 miles north of us.....this gave parts of Manchester a foot of snow. We missed the shower trains blowing in off the Irish Sea and ended up with about 2 inches in total. VERY annoying. Also I have noticed that storms seems to develop all around us but never actually affect here!

Yeah, typically a band of weather pushed through here, nothing remotely electrical, only to strengthen 15-20 miles up the road haha

I'd pretty much agree with that Gavin

Hi Ian, reading through the thread it's good to see someone with some inside information on the case of this potentially nasty event. Although we wont get anything overnight up here, what are your current thoughts on thunderstorm chances tomorrow pm? GFS seems to suggest more precipitation around than the BBC graphics and the NAE seems to support the GFS too.

Glad to hear the hosepipe ban has been lifted and areas that needed the rain are now finally getting it. I think the main problem was (aswell as a shortage of actual precipitation) that when it hit May, the sun had reached a position that meant in any prolonged sunny breaks, water on the surface was easily evaporated, meaning the already slightly below par reservoirs were sitting ducks at mercy of the sun's ability to evaporate as it neared the solstice. This shouldn't be so much of a problem now as we are 2 months past the solstice so any rain that falls into reservoirs now shouldn't be as prone to the sun's heating effects.

Anyone around the Northampton or Tamworth areas? Looks like these two places are getting hammered at the minute.

Derby looking a bit too far north at the minute. There seems to be a line of convective activity to the south, anything north of this is just moderate rain at best judging by the radar Looking very interesting down your way Steve, that's a huge amount of water to fall in that short amount of time!

Just too far south yesterday and too far north today. The frontal wave passed south overnight, with the renewed energy hitting too far south today for us to benefit; wrong place, wrong time. Nice line of convective precipitation stretching from the Bristol Channel to the Wash right now.

We wont catch anything from the Midlands as the predominant flow is becoming more west to east. Chance of some light rain starting within the next 15 mins or so but nothing of note storm wise i'm afraid. EDIT. Light rain now falling

Haha, it's only weather :lol: anyhoo, I had a feeling that some may be left feeling disappointed today....Estofex had the whole of the UK under a level 1 yesterday and that was hardly warranted was it..... In my opinion, the best stormy weather seems to occur when it has not been forecast and isn't really expected to be as severe as what actually happens in reality.

One thing of note, it is no where near as humid feeling today here as the humidity is down on yesterday.

some surprise rain here. On the northwestern extent to that blob of rain moving around the northwest midlands atm