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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    The culprit? Strat PV pushed back over Canadian side? This is at just 60 hrs- On the plus side we might see the E winds blow in Feb?
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    IMO Dan it’s the strat that is causing these swings in the polar field…and I’ve been thinking this for a while.
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    I’m not sure it is getting it wrong…the GFS is good at picking up these small shortwaves. I guess we’ll see.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    Next week looks a fuss about nothing for most on the 0z GFS. A brief initial cold plunge then the Atlantic LP failing to engage the cold troughing to the N and NE. UKMO looks decent though.
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    This is my concern. Some places could be under water by the end of next week.
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    Pronounced rain shadow 18z GFS…Gtr Manchester right down into Cheshire. Seen it before with that scenario…few hrs of drizzly snow that doesn’t stick.
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    We don’t indeed…but that wasn’t my point. We can do without another wet, windy zonal spell.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    Yeah no idea where those wedges of heights have disappeared to. Last thing we need is snowmelt and more flooding.
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    Wales and Midlands get the pasting from the snow on this run…would even catch a few inches here
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    I’d put Midlands favourite at the moment, purely because it’s far enough N to likely be in the cold air and far enough S to ensure precipitation from the LP.
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    UKMO D7…all the ingredients for a snowstorm shortly after at D8. I’d say if you’re in the Midlands you’ve got a good chance of a decent snowfall next week.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    You were correct about those Iberian heights. They’re preventing that Atlantic LP from sliding across France.
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    It does make sense as the strat (and ultimately trop) vortex shifts back west. It could be the case that there is some overreaction in some NWP products to this occurring (firing up a very +ve AO and NAO).
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    The one thing I’ve learned with regards to potential cold spells is never ignore the model that shows what you don’t want. Sometimes it’s the UKMO, sometimes the ECM and sometimes, like now, it’s the GFS.
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    I’m sure when I first signed up to this site I’d never seen the word ‘envelope’ used in the context of weather modelling before. @bluearmy I blame you
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Looks like the GFS finally splits the strat vortex in FI btw
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    Yeah a solution like that is preferable to me. The GFS just looks like stagnant cold with very little oomph to the flow…hence would be mostly dry. Would rather take my chances and see some snow on the ground than remain dry and cold.
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    Nino to Nina would do me well. As with every year, I hope to see a cool wet summer with plenty of convective diurnally driven downpours. A few warmer days would be nice too but nothing excessively hot.
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Happy enough with that EC run tbh. Unlike other output I’ve seen over the past couple of days it doesn’t shut the door on cold going forward.
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    192 looks decent. Should see a sweep S of the cold by D9
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    -1.7C here
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    GFS sniffing another warming now Hopefully the final blow to the SPV. If so, we can expect a decent tail end of Jan and into Feb.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    That’s awful to be fair. Hard to get to where we want to be from there.
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    Zero point looking further than here now Insanely complex. If a ridge can be thrown up ahead of that deep Atlantic LP, the block may regenerate.
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    As I thought, GFS is fine. The Atlantic LP in earlier frames needs to stay backed off now as far W as we can get it. It’s clear now that it isn’t (initially) going to disrupt far enough E under the blocking. As long as it doesn’t sit to our SW and interfere then all should be good.
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