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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    But it’s the safest option to get the cold at all now. Infinitely better than that LP getting into no mans land to our SW where it both cuts off WAA and encourages a European pressure rise.
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    GFS is fine. LP stalls well out west and allows WAA to head N to keep Greenland heights inflated This might be what we have to hope for now as the S arm of the jet looks too undercooked.
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    If that Atlantic LP is going to stall rather than push E into Europe then we want it to stall well west.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    UKMO looked better the GFS at 12z, the GFS looks better than the UKMO this run.
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    If the control solution comes to pass we’ll be needing to get around by boat I personally think that the slide in the output is being caused by the strat- You can see above how the trop and strat are dancing the same jig.
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    Yeah a few lemons in there for sure
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    I think he meant it was 50/50 as to whether the cold made it on the op
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    The thing is it tallies with the strat forecasts which have moderate warming working around the other side of the NH, pushing the SPV towards Greenland. It’s why I tried to stress the importance of the split…Some people wouldn’t have it though.
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    unless sun loungers in Spain are involved
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    Can only really comment on what’s showing at the time. Anything else is educated guesswork. At present it looks like the main event (Starting around D9) is going to be a 3-4 day event…in which hopefully many get to see some snow. The trend seems to be to turn the AO/NAO less negative fairly quickly post main event…albeit that could change. Had we got the big split SSW then I think January would have been off the scale memorable. It is what it is.
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    Pure filth from the GFS this morning. Still too far out to bank on, especially with disagreements between models over the polar regions.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    You wouldn’t believe how valuable experience actually is when it comes to weather models. You can quickly see when things are going wrong after a while of doing this.
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    Well this wasn’t unexpected. It never seemed to be getting any closer and that’s never a good sign. Two GFS ensemble suites in a row downgrading is also not a good sign. I maintain that we needed that proper split of the SPV because relying on trop teleconnections is absolutely fraught with peril at mid-longer range.
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    Just a note, it’s perfectly plausible this goes west based because all winter the strat warming has been focussed towards Canada.
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    Is water wet?
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    The GFS saw a lack of latitude to the HP at D9/10 Most other models overamplified. No idea why people wheel out hemispheric verification stats when it’s the UK and Europe we’re interested in.
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    I agree, there’s a signal…but me and you have both been around on here long enough to know that signal can be snuffed out very quickly. I’m not interested until this is inside D5.
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    There’s a specific scenario that leads to an Azores HP becoming Scandi blocking…and it requires several aspects to line up and coincide pretty perfectly. That’s why classic E’lys are so rare.
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Tbf Mike, not long ago we were looking at Icelandic HP this coming weekend…solid means too for this scenario. Now we’re looking at a UK HP. There’s absolutely no evidence that the same won’t happen for the next D10 chase. Even with solid background drivers we’re really struggling. We see this scenario play out year after year these days and people say they won’t be fooled next time and yet they always are.
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    To be fair to him, he has a point. Come T0 heights tick up slightly to our S and pressure lowers to our N. It’s a common occurrence within the modelling during winter. Just because heights look ok to our S at D10 it doesn’t mean they will be when D10 becomes D5.
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    Anyone else getting bored of these D10 chases? Nice to look at but ultimately at the mercy of sudden changes in the modelled atmospheric drivers which often lead to the whole lot collapsing before inside D6. I’m reserving judgement for now…this winter has so far promised lots but instead we’ve been rained on and blown about by the wind.
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    Surface flooding in places around here. Miserable.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    Anybody got a canoe?
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    You watch winter happen in March…
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    Yes some of us have been around here long enough to know the script! A few weeks ago a SSW looked a cert. Hence I couldn’t see a way for the strat to gain the upper hand.
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