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Schmac

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    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Good morning all!

    I am from (roughly speaking) the same area as jethro and would also be very interested in hearing the opinions of some of the more learned model watchers on what we in the Somerset / Wiltshire area could expect over the next few days / weekend.

    A bit of light patchy rain here this morning with temps around 4°c.

    Very new to all this "model watching" stuff!... Trying to learn though! Very impressed with how some of you guys (and gals!) manage to get so much info from them!

    I used to live up your way TEITS (in Huntingdon)... Looks like I missed a good Winter!

    Keep up the good work all... drinks.gif Fascinating reading! good.gif

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    copied this from SE forum - check out the last line! Could it come true?

    Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell of

    the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

    The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high

    retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM air

    near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling pressure.

    Three things will aid snow development:

    1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and falling

    pressure.

    2. Decreasing stability forcing convection

    3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass ascent

    of air on its cold side (over UK).

    I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out but

    now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from Monday

    onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will be

    immune, even lowland coastal SW areas

    Would be pretty awesome if it did!!...

    I might pop over to the Model Output Discussion thread in a minute to see what the consensus is on the 18z model output!

    The ski jacket might have to come back out the cupboard again then! :D

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Evening all...

    Had some fairly heavy snow flurries in Bath earlier...

    Wind has a bit of a bite to it tonight, as others have said...

    I'm now the proud owner of a wireless weather station (birthday present from the missus)!

    Spent most of Saturday putting it together and mounting it on a pole!...

    Now trying to write my own .NET application to get a live data feed off it... But paying more attention to Mock the Week at the moment!...

    Apparently it's 1.2°c here (dew point -2.2°c)... Time to bring on the snow!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    jack johnson good.gifi think i may have just printed a trees worth of notes off on a side note 26 pages of notes! :wallbash:

    on the weather note milder outside and been reading to MO discussion seems cold on the cards for next week so for now we get to enjoy some milder conditions :p

    Yep... That seems to be the general theme!

    In fact, since around this time last week several of the "main" posters were talking of a cold spell kicking in around the 8th... We shall see!

    There are some really good posts by some of the "regulars" who seem to really know what they're talking about (and who don't change their minds with every model run!)... :bad:

    It was very icy here this morning... Shouldn't have that problem tomorrow though!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Schmac

    I am currently having problems with my thermal gradient, it is causing my precipitation particles to evaporate. I am going to wait for the 6pm ECMAZ charts, check current METO L.R.F, slag off a couple of weather forecasters and then try again. sad.gif

    Or I might just have a bath. biggrin.gif

    So, are we getting snow tonight then?

    Oh well... Keep trying!!... If you need to know how a "depression" works, just pop over to the Model Output thread... There's a fair bit of it in there at the moment!

    Doesn't look very promising to me about getting any snow tonight, not IMBY anyway...

    I've been reading the MO thread since last weekend and up until the latter part of last week the impression I got was as follows:

    1) This weekend would be dominated by a Northerly flow, with cold temps and snow for the North, North East and West coasts

    2) This coming week (i.e. Tuesday 2nd Feb - Friday 5th Feb), we would see a return to milder weather, temps around 7°c - 10°c and a bit of rain

    3) Next weekend (around 6th/7th Feb), an Easterly/South-Easterly flow starting to move in

    4) Next week (around 8th-10th Feb) a cold (possibly very cold) Easterly flow affecting at least the Southern half of the UK

    Has anyone else been following the MO thread?...

    If so, is this the impression you got too? cc_confused.gif

    Has anyone got any idea if this is still on the cards (i.e. An Easterly kicking-in around 8th/10th Feb)? unknw.gif

    I was always expecting the middle part of this coming week to be milder, then turning colder again around the 5th/6th.

    I hope I'm right and I hope it still happens!!!

    If so, you may have to put your "Snow Zoo" on hold for another 10 days or so! rolleyes.gif

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Probably drunk and bored! That's why I post. biggrin.gif

    It is getting colder in the Taunton area now. I have just been out and it is freezing! We also have those fluffy cloud mejiggers that are full of snow. I learnt about those from Ian's blog.

    Do you like my technical language? Oh I have come a long way from that woman who knew nothing about weather a year ago! biggrin.gif

    Had any luck yet with getting it to snow in your bathroom??? clap.gif

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Schmac

    You'll be fine, indecent exposure only counts if the public cannot reasonably avoid encountering it.

    Your back garden - no problem. Their garden whilst knocking on their door and shouting coooeee through the letterbox might land you in hot water.

    Ah, so that's where I went wrong! :lol:

    Ta for the tip... It will help when planning future frost-fuelled midnight snow-dances!

    If there's no improvement in the various models tomorrow wrt "The Beast from the East", I'll have another stab at it tomorrow night...

    Maybe I hadn't quite got the technique right last night... :)

    Anyhoo... Working tomorrow, so bedtime me thinks.

    Night all!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yeah, it's pretty clever stuff really... Wish I knew how to read and interpret all the different models/graphs/ensembles etc.

    In the meantime however, I'll leave it those with the know-how!

    Looking forward to next weekend with regards the start of the next cold spell...

    Apparently it could arrive as early as next Friday, which would be a very nice birthday present!!! :yahoo:

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well, I've spent most of the last 5 days reading the Model Output Thread...

    There are some very knowledgeable people posting in that thread and the last week has made for some very interesting reading.

    From what I can gather, early next week we could see a return to some milder conditions...

    But then, towards the end of next weekend, if things pan-out as the models are portraying, a cold or maybe very cold Easterly/North-Easterly flow could set in, dragging in some very cold air indeed!!! The favoured date for this to happen is around the 8th Feb.

    I hope it pans-out as it's currently showing... It could be the best cold spell for years! :D :D

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I am getting frustrated now! cray.gifcray.gif

    Missed on both sides.

    post-8911-12647898062488_thumb.png

    Have you recently had a "Trowbridge-grade" showshield installed then??!! :D:)

    Just got back from Chippenham... Had a couple of 5-10 minute heavy-ish show showers...

    Clear skies here in Trowbridge at the moment, but there must've been a short shower earlier, as there is a very slight dusting on the grass/fence.

    I'm working tomorrow, but already I can feel a radar/lamp-post watching night coming on!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    OMG, what a mixed bag of weather today!!!

    10 minutes ago - glorious sunshine...

    5 minutes ago - heavy rain/snow (50/50) pardon.gif

    3 minutes ago - heavy hail/snow crazy.gif

    Now... Heavy snow!!! yahoo.gif

    This is near the racecourse in Bath...

    If conditions are good enough for snow now, hopefully they can only improve as the weekend progresses! drinks.gif

    It's stopped now and the sun is shining again!

    Nice surprise though, even if it did only last all of 10 mintues!!!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Up by the racecourse in Bath, there is still a light covering...

    I expect most of it to be gone by tomorrow morning though, (unless the temperature starts dropping off soon)...

    Was nice to see a bit more of the white stuff today, if fairly short-lived...

    Any chances of some more next week?... Model Output thread says that things look to turn colder early next week... Just need the ppn!!!

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