Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Schmac

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    375

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Schmac

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    (but thankfully expected for that area, hence some of us are breathing a MAJOR sigh of forecast relief!! Still a snow signal for some areas of inland N Cornwall but more especially Exmoor....)

    I think I've subscribed to the wrong radar then! :lol:

    I have noticed quite often this winter that the "blue" has been snow and the "pink" has been rain! :doh:

    I'm confused dot com :nonono:

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes indeed so, the classic breakdown to milder scenario in some respects but with all sorts of tricky mesoscale problems for forecasters, let alone the local stuff!

    The M4 thing is actually quite easily explainable in many respects - from there northwards into the Midlands, you encounter the only semblance of a 'quasi continental' flavour of our island's weather in terms of a colder pool offering the sort of robustness and longevity to provide a suitable buffer and transition point against these mild, wet Atlantic incursions. Literally only a few miles makes a massive difference, as exemplified by the differences in snowfall experienced just across Glos - let alone a wider area - last Thursday. If you scaled this sort of forecasting area into, say, Tennessee, it would almost vanish.

    And then you get idiots saying "oh, the US forecasts are so much better". Funny that, because speak to most scientists at NOAA and they rate the UKMO's local forecasts way up in the Met premier league.

    Thanks for that Ian. :good:

    Turf order has been cancelled! :lol:

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    NAE has a rain-sleet-snow combo for these tonight, with the WBFL at ca. 600m across much of thhe West Country southwards of the Mouth of the Severn, but the current DP's are low enough to offer snow across many areas. But either way, despite any temporary snow issues, it's the ice risk tonight that really grabs attention and cannot be overstated. That includes the entire SW Peninsula. Last time we saw this sort of set-up a few weeks ago in Cornwall, it resulted in a fatal coach crash. The snow risk is actually almost irrelevant for most of the SW tonight (in terms of any significant falls) albeit looks lively into the early hours for parts of Glos and north of M4 up into Oxon etc.

    There it is, that M4 ruining it for us further South again!

    I'm gonna turf over the ruddy thing!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Strange really as the M4 motorway often seems the dividing line with rain or snow.

    though on this occasion I think there plenty of time for thing's to change.

    Yep, it must have some magical properties! :)

    As long as it changes so that we have a better chance, that's ok!...

    Will be interesting to see what the 18z run shows a bit later...

    Snow further North?... Or South?... Or something completely different?!... :)

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Nice to see we are back into the meto warning! yahoo.gifdrinks.gif

    Although I shall hold my breath even on mendips we have not seen anything for the last 3 warnings now.

    temperature 0.2c and falling fast

    Yep, I reckon it'll be mega-marginal for Wiltshire again too!...

    I wouldn't be surprised to see some up by the racecourse in Bath again on Monday though... A bit of elevation there (a shade over 200m), but I reckon Trowbridge will be a washout again!...

    (Trying reverse-psychology here again) :doh:

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Schmac

    Yes, and indeed the NAE assessment suggests - in the broadest sense - a very similar geographic snow threat to the one we saw a couple of days ago - i.e., Glos / S Glos and environs now into the area for possible trouble by around 12z Monday. Note that the UKMO has re-issued the advisory on basis of last run to include a broad area of the West Country but I do stress confidence is still not great. Snow showers for many in our patch tomorrow morning still well locked-on in the new run too (more persistent snow from around N Glos up into Midlands / SE Wales).

    Ian

    Thanks for the update Ian! :good:

    Just out of curiousity, is this how the general mood at the Met Office could be summed up in relation to trying to forecast next week...

    :cc_confused::drinks: :lol: :crazy: :lol: :help:;)

    :D

    EDIT: Just seen your post above! "... an active mess...", I think a lot of people would agree with that! Hopefully the models will start behaving themselves soon!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Spot on

    12z NAE once more returns the snowfall risk certainly from the M4 northwards

    http://expert.weathe...022212_2012.gif

    Modelling is just not worth paying attention to currently until the 24hr timeframe

    Even looking at the differences between the models, a stark contrast in the 12z UKMO GM and GFS outputs

    SK

    Yep... The temperatures for this area for the middle part of next week, over the past day or so have gone from highs of around 7-9°c to 1-3°c and back and forth and so on!... :cc_confused:

    Even Mondays "event" for the Gloucestershire area has gone from moderate snow, to light snow, to moderate snow, to nothing!

    Later in the run (i.e. next Friday), the rain/snow boundary has shifted from the South coast to Scotland (and a few places in between!) :drinks:

    Where would you place FI at at the moment??? :lol:

×
×
  • Create New...