No Balls Like Snow Balls

Its not happened yet though?.

You are joking arnt you?

What's clear is that at T96 milder air will be making inroads across southern UK. What yet isn't clear is the exent of the northern push and the longevity of the northern push. ECM soon bats the milder air away whilst the GFS needs a couple of attempts but eventually the milder air gets much further north. What is also clear is the fact the sun is getting stronger day by day and the northern hemisphere is warming and along with it the chance of cold is ever decreasing.

The GFS 12z is quite wet at the end of the week. Milder in the South, but still a question mark over how quickly / how far North the milder air gets.

The ECM is very aggressive with the push of milder air from the South at T120. But as others have said it wouldn't be dry with it. This coming week might be the last cold spell until next winter so enjoy for everyone that may get snow.

The ECM OOZ has the coldest uppers reaching all but SW Wales and England @ T96. The GFS 00z has the coldest uppers staying North of the Midlands. The cold air line is changing with every run. It looks like everywhere will be below average next week, but favoured spots for any settling/laying snow must still be the Midlands North, but even then the chances of any accumulating snow at lower levels may well be being over hyped. The GFS ensembles still show good agreement for milder uppers into the South next weekend. The question still is, will the milder air win out at the end of the week and gradually move North or will the HP win out and keep most of us cold. By the way the ECM T216 chart would give highs of 14c in Southern England if it were to verify.

The GFS 12z 850 ensemble for London shows very good clustering for upper air temps to rise from the 21st

So the cold air is coming back again. Cold uppers entering northern UK from T72. What's uncertain is how far south does it get and do we see milder air pushing up from the south next weekend.

LOL, I thought you were on a wind up with the use of the word epic.

The coldest uppers never get further south than roughly Liverpool on the 12z. Milder air pushing in from the south at T120. UKMO looks similar to GFS at T120 and T144 . Its certainly not the first time the models have shown milder air coming in from the south at the weekend. It currently ties in with the meto outlook.

And we also shouldn't count our chickens in regards to a deep freeze on the way?. Is that how you see it?. In fact nothing is certain yet is it?

I don't have any concerns about the chart posted. Just saying that we hear so many times about so many factors being involved in forecasting snow that quite often forecasting snow comes down to nowcasting and even then it can be completely wrong, therefore there is no way in the world that a snow map at this range can accurately forecast snow/ depth of etc. I think you know full well that I don't pay to see the ECM suite, i don't think any one that is a individual on this site does considering it costs thousands of pounds.

Op runs that are cold outliers and a met office update that doesn't suggest a winter wonder land for south of the midlands. Met office outlooks do change and only a couple of days ago people were posting about how wintry the met office update was so there is the evidence that they do change. How ever it doesn't currently look great for a long nationwide freeze and widespread settling snow. Im not a mild lover i just try to see past the end of my nose.

These snow maps are not very accurate. At 5/6 days away you might aswell use a crystal ball. Snow accumulation in the North Sea aswell? how very rare.

Personally I don't see the point in any snow that isn't going to settle. And in that scenario you mention there is no way it would settle on ground already heated by the sun before the showers arrival. And if by a miracle it did settle, temps going back up to 6c and the strength of the sun this time of year are going to melt any accumulations before you have had time to blink.

The 850 mean is average, i should have mentioned what average i was talking about. The op run has very little support.

Whilst the op runs may look "epic" the ensemble mean for the South looks average. The North of the UK by far looks the best place to be for snow next week. The milder temps that have shown for next weekend have disappeared, but that doesn't mean they won't reappear in the coming days. The bbc weather forecast doesn't look great for cold. 6c for my area on Tuesday, not what i would call epic not even in march.

It seems the GFS 12z has increased the chance of snow for North Midlands South next week within the T120 time frame. It's still a long way from verifying though and will most definitely change with every run. The milder air does still make it into the South next weekend, albeit slightly delayed and a bit diluted, but in the grand scheme of things the turning milder theme in the South next weekend is still there. As mentioned before Spring is a season not a weather type. We can't put it on hold or trend away from it as we are living in Spring at the moment, I just see these type of comments as nothing more than trying to start a argument. The trouble is people actually bite though. Take a leaf out of my book and have a good laugh at the inflammatory comments either anti cold or anti mild.

To be fair Mushy you can't expect people to pu$$y foot around others just because it might offend someone. There will always be something that offends someone no matter how trivial. If we did that it would be a sad old world. We may aswell all not speak in case we say something that might happen to offend 1 person.

First time we have seen a chart like that in a while.

Yep here it is. Above ave rainfall though. The last 32 day update on 11th March also signaled temps recovering to near ave late March / Early April, so it seems to be a consistent signal.

It looks highly likely that anywhere North of Manchester will probably be cold next week with a chance of snow (based on the ECM) Anwhere South of this line will most likely stay cool and any precip will more than likely be of rain. During the latter half of next week the GFS and ECM ensembles show a "warm" up in the South with temps reaching double figures. Both the GFS and ECM do then show the milder temps across the whole country by the end of next weekend. Even though it looks like turning much milder at least for the South it doesn't look like it will be dry with it.

GFS still showing a "warm" up from late next week in the South. Please take with a pinch of Salt though at this current stage, because What happens with the LP over the UK at the end of this weekend isn't sorted yet. Although the last ECM run did show a "warm" up at the end of next week to.

Wasn't the GFS out on it's own predicting the Easterly just gone, and eventually the ECM and UKMO came into line with the GFS. Albeit the UKMO was last to come into line. An Easterly that is showing at 5 days away is a long long long way from bearing fruit.

Yes indeed. I was only messing.