No Balls Like Snow Balls

The GFS 06Z along with the ECM 00Z paints a unsettled and fairly mild picture from Midweek onwards, with a large LP stuck out West and only slowly moving East towards the UK. Spells of rain sweeping across the country. Once again the latest GFS T2M ensemble average does not show any very cold daytime temps for London. If you are looking for snow then you should head to the mountains of Scotland as currently they stand the best chance of seeing anything wintry.

Any potential very cold spell is currently being put back by the models or disappearing altogether. The current ECM and GFS ensembles still point to cooling in temps at some point next weekend / start of next week, but as per previous ensembles they show nothing particularly cold, with temps of 5-7c in the South. Colder the further North you go. Mild mid-week with rain for most. This coming weekend has the potential to be quite wet especially in the South.

Yes I know thanks. The 12z ensembles won't be out until later tonight.

Based on the last ECM (Birmingham) and latest GFS (London) ensembles, at it's peak any colder spell would only last 2-3 days. Snow in the high res part of the GFS 12z is shown, mostly for Scotland but at times also Northern England. The 12z ECM reserves the coldest uppers for T240, it was also the same on the 00z and i believe possibly the run before that to, so at this minute any real cold air is staying way out in FI.

We should also point out that not one of the more experienced members is correct 100% of the time and have all got it wrong sometimes. Even the professionals. And new members should not hang off every word of one person but look at the wide variety of postings from coldies and mildies alike.

The 4 models I have looked at this morning GEM, GFS, ECM and UKMET all show pressure rising in between Greenland and Scandi upto T144. The overnight ECM and GFS T2M TMAX ensembles continue to show a sharp decrease from next weekend onwards. They are colder than there own previous runs. Still not cold enough to be considered a big freeze or for any snow, with maxes of 4-5c being progged by the GFS and 5-6c by ECM. Cold for March but not amazingly so. Plenty of time to continue the trend downwards or the flip side - plenty of time for it to go wrong from a deep cold perspective. What i have noticed is that the ECM op run seems to keep the really cold uppers @ T240 more often than not. Overall confidence is pretty high for the cooling off of temps next weekend from mid-weeks double figures, but how cold it gets is still a long way from being sorted.

The Ecm (Birmingham) and Gfs (London) ensembles do show a sharp decrease in daytime temps from next weekend. But they are still nowhere near cold enough to produce snow or any daily express big freeze headlines. Hardly worth getting excited at the moment considering any extreme cold shown in the op runs are 8 days away. I Do find de bilt ensembles pretty pointless when all they really do is confirm the likely hood that de bilt will be colder than the UK 99% of the time.

Next week is still panning out to be mild with rain at times. Any potential very cold weather is still way out in FI (no change there then), and IMO is likely to remain so for some time. There are small signs in both the ECM and GFS ensembles that the temps may fall away again from the end next weekend, but only to values between 6-8c, no way near cold enough for snow unless your planning on being on the highest mountains.

Current indications are that it will turn unsettled from mid week with a large LP stuck out in the Atlantic bringing rain at times across the UK. heaviest of the rain will be in the North and West. Temps will be on the mild side throughout the reliable period. Current 500mb charts, NOAA, ECM & GFS all show a low height anomaly continuing in the Atlantic for the foreseeable. I think it is safe to say that we will not be seeing a cold outbreak any time soon.

Latest ECM Ensembles in FI do show a cooling off of temps late next week. But at this minute a slight cooling off from the mild temps midweek is all it is. there are certainly no hints from these ensembles that there is freeze on the way just yet.

The GFS 06z continues to show things turning milder next week. There is the possibility of some rain into Tuesday night and Weds, with the most heaviest and persistent being in the North and West of the UK. There are signs of pressure rises in between Greenland and Scandi in deep FI. Even if this were to verify as clearly shown on the GFS a East Based NAO does not guarantee us freezing conditions. There are many factors involved to get the coldest of the cold diverted over the UK.

Both the GFS and ECM Ensembles show it turning milder next week, with temps into double figures. It sill looks like quite a cloudy affair and it's hard to pin down where will see sunshine and where won't. No sign of any rain until at least Weds, and even then it doesn't look like being anything significant at this stage. There are signs that it may once again turn cooler at the end of next week into next weekend but as this is still out in FI it's not guaranteed at this time.

GFS Ensembles show temps rising into double figures in some places for at least a few days next week, before cooling off slightly again later in the week. ECM ensembles also showing the same.

I am pretty sure you will find the ave temps on these ensembles are the mean of the daytime and night time temps. For example take the 1st of March temps. TMAX = 6c TMIN = 2c, 6 + 2 = 8 divide by 2 = 4, now look at temp ave for 1st march = 4c. If your still unsure look at the daytime temp for Birmingham tomorrow on BBC weather, it's going to be 7c. It's going to turn milder for a few days next week, with temps possibly reaching double figures in some places. Then it looks like after a few days of milder weather it will cool down slightly again.

A marked rise in daytime temps next week for a few days according to the latest ECM ensembles, before falling away again later next week. Nothing extreme at either end of the cold/mild scale.

No sign of any widespread rain until at least Tues/Weds next week. Over 2 weeks of relatively dry weather UK wide hasn't been seen in a fair while. I am ready to move on from dull and benign now though.

Looks like currently Sunday will be the best day in a fair while for the South of the UK. With quite mild temps and some sunshine. It will feel lovely compared to what we are used to. Hoooorah I hear most of you say lol

I am surprised that no one has mentioned the GEM in LA LA land. If you like a tease take a look lol

At that sort of time frame you can expect to be let down 999 times out of 1000. After the HP disappears away to our East it still looks like turning unsettled, with temps neither particularly mild or cold.

Some milder Southerly winds showing up in deep FI (not for the 1st time), Mild uppers and mild daytime temps albeit not particularly dry and sunny.

The latest ECM 32 day signals a below ave month temp wise (based on Birmingham) Temps look set to rise to around average the start of the 2nd week of March before falling away again quite significantly from mid-month. The last 3 weeks of March would also bring above average rain - Winds from a cool NW/W direction then perhaps??. If the ECM 32 day were to verify then there would certainly be no March "heatwave" The last ECM update before the above on the 21st Feb also should a cool month with below ave temp and above ave rain.

Some milder temps being pushed into the UK by the start of next week on the 12z GFS I should add that the mean 2m ensemble temps over the last couple of runs have been a few degrees lower than the op, so it might be the same again that the op run is overdoing the temps. I think some higher temps would be welcomed by many.

Not many cold runs in the GFS 06z ensembles. Is it quite safe to say that the worst of winter is over and are we more likely to see spring warmth showing on future model runs rather than arctic blasts or Beasts from the East!!!

There is good agreement that HP will dominate our weather up until T144/168 at the least. After this there are small signs that it may become more unsettled with more of a W/NW flow No really mild temps on the horizon.

Definitely a slight warm up on the cards next week, slightly below ave temps still though. Below ave rain next week and for the foreseeable, small signs in the ECM ensembles that it may become wetter from mid March onwards. +5 uppers knocking on the door of the UK right at the end of the run on the GFS. Is spring springing!!