No Balls Like Snow Balls

You might feel a bit cold in shorts, but yeah defo sun glasses in any sunny spells, especially in mornings when the sun is quite low. I prefer not to look that far out into FI. even Weds is pushing it probably.

Not very cold in the South come Sunday afternoon. Feeling very cold Midlands North though. 06z was colder run for the South on Sunday. Very cold everywhere on Monday. Come Weds it back to milder temps for everyone. Probably feeling quite pleasant in any sunny spells. GFS 06z also showed it warming up slightly come Weds to. Still looks like only 2 very cold days max based on current outputs. A warm up mid-week has also been signaled on the last GFS and ECM ensembles.

I don't think anyone has been saying it will be dry this weekend. The UKMO and GFS signal it will be quite wet almost everywhere. Who gets snow and who gets rain is not even worth attempting to answer.

It's not me upgrading or downgrading though its the models LOL. I am just commenting on what the current ECM op run shows. If you don't agree with the op run then that is your right to do so. Just don't shoot the messenger

Yes I should have said with possible exception of places in the East. But even then surface conditions for Norwich and Newcastle suggest a couple of days of snow showers at the very best before turning dry for remainder of the week. The general theme is dry and quite sunny for the majority next week based on latest output.

Looking at the 00Z ECM rainfall ensemble it looks relatively dry and sunny for most next week. Birmingham below. Also had a look at surface conditions applied from the ECM 00Z operational run for London, Manchester, Southampton and Aberdeen and this also show's fairly dry and sunny next week. The ECM rainfall ensemble does however show the possibility of it turning wetter at the end of next week.

The 00Z ECM ensembles (Birmingham) and GFS 00Z Ensembles (London) along with the GFS 06z op run all show a very short "very" cold spell, with daytime temps only falling below 5c for 2 days possibly 3 @ at push. A slight warm up would then take place with temps approaching 5c on the ECM and even warmer on the GFS with temps approaching 8c down South.

The 00Z ECM ensembles were colder than the 12Z ensembles. In fact the last set of ECM ensembles are the coldest yet. Not quite as cold as the GFS though. Will the ECM ensembles continue to grow colder or will the ECM and GFS meet in the middle!!

Based only on the GFS 06Z Monday would be the only amazingly cold day. After Monday it's not very cold at all. It might be a case of blink and you will miss the very cold temps.

2 weeks into Spring and this could be the max temps UK wide on Monday - not very spring like.

With the ECM coming on board with the GFS it now starts to look interesting in regards to a cold spell. T72 and T96 is where we start to see pressure rising to the N/NW on the ECM and GFS - you would like to think that at this time frame you could say the evolution was in the bag but with the UKMO still not on board caution is still required, but probably not as much caution before the ECM came out.

I do agree with Mushy. It has only been potentially historic in the GFS eyes. The ECM has thrown in the odd "historic" op run but generally any real cold has been held back in deepest FI. The UKMO has not been interested in any cold spell what so ever. Of course we could still end with a "historic" March considering there is no agreement at T72, but IMO it's looking unlikely. Anyone is allowed to disagree of course.

It's hardly a hijack. It would be late March if this were to verify and it is Spring now after all.

I would say that the UKMO has been just as consistent at not showing any cold just as much as the GFS has been consistent at showing cold.

The UKMO is definitely not having any of the cold and wintryness on tonight's 12z. I find it very very difficult to believe the GFS when neither the UKMO or the ECM agree with the GFS solution. Any slower and it might just arrive in time for Christmas

Something is very wrong with either the UKMO or GFS @ T72. GFS very clearly still going with a very cold theme with pressure rising between Iceland and Scandi. The UKMO has no pressure rise at this same time frame.

The average 2 metre max temp taken from all 51 ensembles

OMG this is the 2nd time I have had to say this. The ave temps ensemble is the mean of the daytime and nighttime temps added together and divided by 2. If you don't believe me go and try it. Look at the chart you are referring to below and look at today 5th March. It's not 4c today in Birmingham is it? - no it's currently 11.3c. For the final time for anyone looking the ave temp ensemble from weather xchange it is the mean of the day time and night time temp not average daytime temp. See TMAX ensemble for Birmingham today 5/03/13. It shows 11c which excatly in line with todays temp in Birmingham. PLEASE SOMEBODY AGREE WITH ME LOL

The 00z ECM T2M ensemble for Birmingham doesn't show anything amazingly cold. Although the 00Z ensemble is the first time that the average T2M has fallen below 5c for any length of time since it showed temps falling away after the mid-week mild spell. Whether they will continue to fall away in line with the GFS is another matter. The monthly ECM ensemble updated yesterday for Birmingham shows below average temps in varying degrees right out until beginning of April. Rainfall is also predicted to be above average.

The GFS is certainly very impressive in the mid term upto (T144). The evolution to cold starts as early as T72 on the GFS with pressure rising between Iceland and Greenland at this time frame.

The 00z GFS has a max of 2c in London on Sunday whilst the ECM 00Z would have a max of 10c in London on Sunday. UKMO and ECM are still against the GFS. The GFS has become even more aggressive with the introduction of cold over the UK. Until the ECM and UKMO show deep cold it is very wise to be objective when looking at the GFS.

It's quite amazing how there is close grouping between the 14th/15th March on the 12z GFS ensembles but quite a lot of scatter from the 11th March. Once again we see a ECM run where the real deep cold is kept between T216 and T240. At this minute it's the UKMO and ECM verses the GFS. It doesn't currently look great for a countrywide very cold and snowy spell unless you are willing to put all your faith in the GFS.

850's just below -5c don't really have the same effect this time of year as they would in mid-winter. The T2M temps for Manchester are not that cold, barley going below 5c during the day.

Currently it doesn't even look like being that cold away from perhaps Scotland.

Yes your are correct. The highest Mountains of Wales and the very highest hills / mountains of Northern England stand a chance to. Not many people live at very high elevation though. Scottish mountains still give the best chance because they are higher and further North and as we know normally the further North you are and higher up you are the better chance you have of seeing snow.