No Balls Like Snow Balls

24 hours later the warmer uppers are coming POW POW LOL

It's only 177 Hours away. Come on come to papa

Temps reach the dizzy heights of 12c for the South next weekend if the ECM 00z were to verify LOL.

The UKMO and GFS are pretty similar in regards to the placement of the LP @ T96, however ECM is quite different. At T120 ECM and UKMO are similar but GFS is different, so I would say FI @ the moment is T96. Up until T96 it's going to be unsettled in most places this weekend. Any snow will be over high ground.

It should also be pointed out that "very cold for March" doesn't necessarily mean snow. The average max for March in Central / Southern England is roughly 10c. You could say 5c is very cold for March but that wouldn't necessarily mean snow. Most places could end up with just cold rain. Not worth getting excited about a very cold March if all the majority of people are going to get is rain - unless that kind of thing floats your boat of course All the models currently show is quite a wet weekend for most, with some Snow in the north possible. After that it is anyone's guess.

The only thing that is certain in the models at this minute is that this weekend will be quite miserable for a fair few places. Longer spells of rain or showers for most and no doubt it will feel cold and miserable where rain persists.

UKMO 12Z and GFS 12Z in very good agreement where to put the LP at T120 - slap bang over the UK. Probably any precip in Scotland would fall as snow in most places. And possibly in Northern England at times to. In the South any precip would be all rain. It looks like being unsettled for a fair while.

Well yeah it could be a lot worse. At least there is a slight improvement temp wise.

Even the monthly ensembles don't paint a pretty picture. No sign of any warmth. Just cool and pretty wet :-(

The ECM 2m temps from the 00z show most places from Birmingham Southwards having daytime temps of between 7-9c from Friday this week until (excluding Monday) Wed's next week. Whilst precip during the day would fall as rain the GFS does hint at the slight possibility of rain turning to snow overnight in the South on a few occasions. Bit of a waste of time in my opinion but some may enjoy that kind of thing. Sadly no spring warmth or much sunshine is shown on the ECM.

Big differences where to place the LP at T120. The north looks favourite for any snow over the weekend, but if the GFS were to verify the snowline would move further South. The ECM just shows it being cool and wet in the South, much colder the further North you go which obviously increases the chance of rain being snow. What ever happens after T120 there certainly doesn't look like very much dry and mild weather on the horizon.

It's looking really unsettled on the GFS 06z from the weekend onwards, all the way out to 10 days +. Nothing particularly mild nor cold. Certainly nothing spring like in the near future. But I would also say more autumnal than winter.

It looks like this week will remain cold for many places but at the same time gradually turn less cold. The end of this weeks herald's in a unsettled spell of weather for most. temperatures will remain slightly below average and any snow will be reserved for the mountains based on current output.

Still the trend on the GFS 00z and ECM 00z for things to turn less cold next week. How ever It's not going to be particularly mild or cold. come the end of the week / start of next weekend both the ECM and GFS 00z show a LP centred over or near to the UK that has originated from the NW and subsequently it brings with it much more unsettled weather.

I see the the ECM london and Birmingham ensembles trending less cold through the whole output.

LOL All of a sudden the De Bilt ensembles are a waste of time. When the De Bilt ensembles show mega cold they are elevated to a god like status and everyone forgets that De Bilt is miles away from the UK. The 00z ECM ensembles for Birmingham do show it getting less cold all the way until the end of the 15 day run. Albeit it very slowly turns less cold but by the end we are pretty much back to average. I don't expect the 12z ECM ensembles to look much different.

It certainly looks like turning less cold next week, but it will probably be a slow process. There maybe some weak weather fronts crossing the country but on the whole it looks relatively dry. In FI things may turn more unsettled as we enter next weekend. On another note there seems to be quite a few posts popping up attacking anyone that posts about mild weather. Seriously grow up. How old are you people!!!

After the excitement of this weekend and early next week in regards to possible snow and freezing temps it looks set to gradually turn less cold from Tuesday. GFS and ECM both currently agree on a NWerly wind by Thurdsay turning to a South/Southwesterly by Friday and heralding in temps close to or at the March average.

From what I can tell the snow chances for the South on the ECM from the channel low don't look as good as the GFS but are better than the UKMO. The South coast seems to still get a fair old whack, but the snow doesn't seem as far North as the GFS. The track will continue to change over the next 48 hours that is for sure.

Dry for the majority on Weds. Possibly some shower activity in the Afternoon. A mix of rain, sleet and snow depending on location.

Still cold across the centre of the UK on Thursday. Less cold towards the East and far West. Some rain to for the South. Possibly snow The Midlands North.

A very very localised hard frost down South.

The GFS12z is great for anyone living South of the M4. There could be quite a bit of snow around. However the UKMO isn't quite as good. The precip on the UKMO barely touches the South coast. I wouldn't take the GFS as a dead cert just yet as we are talking such fine margins of LP movement now.

The ECM 00Z op run upto T144 (London) shows Monday as the only very cold day (1c). Sunday has a max of 4c, i expect the very cold air isn't expected to reach this far South until Sunday evening. Tuesday sees it turning less cold (3c), Wed's continues the less cold theme 6c and Thurs see's rain forecast with a max of 5c. Rain could possibly turn to snow Sunday afternoon / evening. Mon is dry but cloudy. Tues is also dry but sunny, and Weds see's a chance of sleet / snow showers. The ECM ensemble mean also agrees with temps becoming less cold from Tuesday. GFS 06z upto T144 (London) This also shows the very cold air not reaching this far South until Sunday evening at the earliest. Max for Sun 5c, Mon is very cold 1c, there is the possibility on the GFS that London keeps hold of the very cold air until Tues, max 1c. But then by Wed's it becomes less cold, max 4c, Thurs less colder still, max 6c. Sunday also see's a chance of rain turning to snow on the GFS. Mon also sees a chance of snow for London from a front coming up from the South coast.. Tuesday looks fairly dry. Wed's could see some scattered light sleet / snow showers. And Thursday see's more general rain arrive. Overall quite a similar theme from both ECM and GFS. GFS probably with better snow chances. but both agree turning less cold from Tuesday onwards, with the possibility of more general rain on Thurs.

The ECM 00Z op run upto T144 (London) shows Monday as the only very cold day (1c). Sunday has a max of 4c, i expect the very cold air isn't expected to reach this far South until Sunday evening. Tuesday sees it turning less cold (3c), Wed's continues the less cold theme 6c and Thurs see's rain forecast with a max of 5c. Rain could possibly turn to snow Sunday afternoon / evening. Mon is dry but cloudy. Tues is also dry but sunny, and Weds see's a chance of sleet / snow showers. The ECM ensemble mean also agrees with temps becoming less cold from Tuesday. GFS 06z upto T144 (London) This also shows the very cold air not reaching this far South until Sunday evening at the earliest. Max for Sun 5c, Mon is very cold 1c, there is the possibility on the GFS that London keeps hold of the very cold air until Tues, max 1c. But then by Wed's it becomes less cold, max 4c, Thurs less colder still, max 6c. Sunday also see's a chance of rain turning to snow on the GFS. Mon also sees a chance of snow for London from a front coming up from the South coast.. Tuesday looks fairly dry. Wed's could see some scattered light sleet / snow showers. And Thursday see's more general rain arrive. Overall quite a similar theme from both ECM and GFS. GFS probably with better snow chances. but both agree turning less cold from Tuesday onwards, with the possibility of more general rain on Thurs.