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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Northern Sky replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can someone remind me what the long range models were saying for Jan Feb on last months updates? I might be wrong but didn't some of them look promising? I'm beginning to think that they're really not worth the bother looking at whatever they say. They have an input of starting data that is subject to so many variables that multiply as each day passes. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Northern Sky replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes this is something that has been signposted by yourself and others for some time, although perhaps arriving a little later than expected? I suppose the worry is that the possible return to opportunities for cold will be delayed too. Most people - me included - will be hoping for a cold Christmas. Should something like the 240hrs ECM chart verify on the 15th it looks a long way to cold from there? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Northern Sky replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's a fair bit north of Tan Hill and Swaledale. Looks to be in Cumbria just below Brampton. It's definitely a glitch though. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Northern Sky replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Didn't the long range models go for a stormy November? Wet and windy in November is great, especially if it's chilly too. I like it. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Northern Sky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some surprisingly big differences in the models this morning even at 96hrs. UKMO offering the best weather for the weekend with ECM the worst, GFS and ICON somewhere inbetween. The ECM really piles the rain in on Sunday providing a country wide washout. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Northern Sky replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I hope you're right CC. This has been a very dry 'unsettled' spell following on from a completely dry settled spell. May and June both massively below average rainfall, July starting the same way and nothing much showing in the precipitation charts on the models. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Northern Sky replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's not rained here since the 12th of May so I'm happy to see the charts this morning. It really has been an exceptionally dry spell here. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Northern Sky replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes I've got fingers crossed we'll get some rain from Sunday. The last rain here was on May 12th! There doesn't loo much for Eastern parts though and even here right in the centre of the country much of it looks to be to the West of us. -
I've had enough of the dry weather. Is there no rain at all on the horizon?
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Northern Sky replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes fair point but it's only a couple of weeks since we had a significant snow event here and then another covering on the 14th. The last week has been mild but only a couple of those days have felt 'Spring like' as the others have been wet and blustery which despite the temperature have certainly felt rather chilly. It's the kind of calm, sunny weather that enables you to feel the strength of the sun which has been in short supply so far here. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Northern Sky replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perhaps avoid the GFS as well which brings a Greenland high and snow before Easter. Certainly nothing settled or warm on offer just yet and the warnings of an extended cool Spring due to the SSW look accurate as things stand. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Northern Sky replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Only 7 months?! That's more than enough thank you very much . The time I love settled sunny weather the most is in Spring when it's not too warm but that doesn't look likely just yet. At the moment the models - particularly the GFS and GEM - are hinting at a possible rise in pressure as we head towards Easter but it's pretty tentative at the moment. It's been fairly wet here but nothing out of the ordinary and I suspect we may well be due a very wet month at some point soon. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Northern Sky replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which models are these Don? It's not the news I wanted to hear at all. I hate heat and I hate drought -
Ah soz, I must've read Leeds/Bradford in your profile and my brain just linked it to the airport! You've done pretty well there then. From the top of the hill at Cookridge you can see right over that way and I remember feeling jealous looking at the white hills in January. Usually we do ok here but we just seem to have missed out until this one. It's been a frustrating Winter with some nice frosts all we've had, this makes up for it a bit though
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Let's hope so. We closed school an hour early today so just got home. 3C and raining in Castleford when I left so I was glad to see there was still some laying snow here. I haven't been able to keep up with anything at work today, could anyone tell me the latest forecast are we still in for more snow into tonight?
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It's not looking great for central Northern England. The showers on Tuesday don't look to be pushing in land and the frontal snow is too far south. Absolutely no snow here at all this Winter.
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A 5 day cold spell with snow would be great. I'd love to see a bit of snow then let's get on with Spring and a nice warm up. Regarding the ECM isn't it just a case of us seeing two options at either end of the envelope which sometimes happens? The 0z at the coldest end, the 12z at the warmest? What I really don't want to see is one of those never ending cold Springs, where things take ages to grow, grey, damp and totally dispiriting. I'm worried that's what might happen.
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Northern Sky replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We've just had storm Otto?