Northern Sky

The incredibly dry outlook continues right to the end of the GFS. I'm already having to water the garden! Cloudy, grey, cool and dry. Hardly exciting stuff.

Nice to finally see the high pressure retreating somewhat towards the end of the ECM. It's incredibly boring weather, I'm looking forward to a bit of wind and rain hopefully.

Very true, it's the hope that's killed us! It's been rubbish but actually better here than a few recent Winters in that we had lying snow for a few days. However when placed against the expectations given by the long range models and the background signals this seasons model watching has been an exhausting kick in the teeth . You just know we'll get a cold, wet Spring and Summer to 'make up' for it.

I might be wrong but isn't high level blocking more likely late Feb/March than any other time in Winter simply due to seasonal wavelengths? It seems to have been a pattern over the last few years that March has often been colder or at least had colder spells than many of the Winter months that precede it. I think @Catacol's post is very interesting regarding a kind of 'modern climate' perhaps confusing (if that's the right word) the long range models and expected teleconnections. Throw in a possible solar minimum over the next few years and we could be in for some interesting weather.

I think there had been a little bit of snow in Cross Gates earlier. Thick frost, fog and even a little bit of snow, absolutely loved it today.

Looks rubbish on the latest Met video, doesn't reach Yorkshire.

What's the chance of any showers pushing in later? Look North showed a few but I remain doubtful they always seem to fizzle out before they get to north Leeds. Not sure what to think of Thursday yet over on the model thread the consensus seems to be on the front only reaching the midlands - although perhaps if it pivots we will get something later?

Just light rain here in NW Leeds at the moment.

I wouldn't write Thursday off yet. The ECM has actually moved it north overnight. The GFS and Netweather's own model have it reaching us too. Not so good on UKMO and ICON. probably won't know till the day.

It looks that way yes. Last nights 10 day ECM mean was great, today it's rubbish. What the reality will be I don't know and neither it seems does the ECM.

I don't mind the idea of the two threads but I'd just ask that if people do some model analysis they post it in both threads and keep the OT/one liners to this thread. That way I can just give this thread a miss without fear of missing some good posts.

I've been reading this forum for years and you soon learn who to take notice of and who to put on ignore. I think before people start criticising the "experts" they should perhaps examine their own interpretation of what they are saying. There are a number of very knowledgeable posters on here that are brave enough to make predictions based on their interpretations of the background signals and teleconnections. The signal for a possible turn to cold weather has been highlighted by many of these posters to commence around the middle of Jan. Over the course of the past month I think that date has been put back by around a week or two, so from about the 5th of Jan to the 19th. The reasons for this delay have been explained in large part to the uncertainties around timing of any downwelling of the SSW. How on earth is anyone meant to be able to predict that with precision? For a long time the models were showing endless HP over us in FI, we are now at the stage where the transition to a possible cold pattern is showing up. Everything still looks on course for a change but it doesn't look likely until the last third of the month.

Given the fluctuations and uncertainties in the medium to long term outlook I'm just going to concentrate on the model output to T120. As long as it continues to look as good as the ICON

Still two weeks away from the mooted change to colder weather. I don't really see anything has changed over the last few days. If we are to get a change to cold around that time the output should start to show the building blocks towards it. As bluearmy says above the ridge of high pressure over us is part of that. Whether things work out for us is another matter but I'm not worrying yet. The prospect of some frosty/foggy weather is very appealing but if it turns out o be a cloudy high it will be dull in every sense of the word.

Wait, what? Surely it's either going to be absolutely incredible, fantastic raging cold or desperate, horrendous, endless mild? We live in a world where there is only two possible outcomes to anything... ...don't we?

QTR = Quick Tropospheric Response It's just how quickly the Strat warming downwells to the Trop.

I think the mistake is to assume that a SSW means guaranteed cold for the UK. That's absolutely not the case because it depends on a number of factors. However what is pretty clear from the evidence is that a SSW can and often does have a major impact on Tropospheric weather patterns and that in recent years these have at times had a significant effect on our weather, with the last one being Feb/March's "Beast from the East". There are plenty of other examples over recent years too.

Quite clearly the empirical evidence of recent years completely contradicts that statement.

Does it? The possible change to cold has been marked to start around the 10th - 15th of Jan for weeks now. That's still over two weeks away! People have been talking about the SSW happening and that is happening right now just about as forecast. The uncertainty is when/if the warming will impact on our weather. If the change to colder weather is to take place around the forecast time of mid month then we should start to see building blocks to cold appear over the next week or so. If nothing appears by this time next week then fair enough start to worry.

Sorry to be pedantic - teacher so I can't help it - but it's dire, not dyre. That's Danny

And also it's what the long range/teleconnections posters have been saying for the last few weeks. It's over twenty days away, it's extremely unlikely that the 10 day chart of the ECM will verify exactly as it is but even if it did there would still be a further 10 days for things to change. If things turn out anything like expected then we should start to see the building blocks of a cold spell come into range over the next week to 10 days. If in 10 days we are in the same position as now then fair enough we can start worrying.

Ah cheers NWS. Yes you're right, hopefully though the idea that a UK high often precedes a cold spell for us will come to fruition for us. In terms of the trop modelling I'm not too worried yet. Picking up on the posts from the long range experts it's looked like any proper cold wouldn't arrive until the last two thirds of Jan. That's still 17 days away so I'll just be looking for signs of the lead up to that. If in a week or two's time things still look as grim then maybe time to worry? I've really enjoyed your optimistic posts this year NWS keep the faith

I thought this UK high has nothing to do with the SSW?

I'm not sure "let's just cancel winter altogether" constitutes realism. The model output isn't great but perhaps an analysis of it would be better placed in one of the other threads? People are here to look for cold, that's the point of it and while the tropospheric modelling doesn't look great the model output in the stratosphere shows much to be hopeful about further down the line. The consequences of events in the strat are not a gaurantee of cold weather for us but there are many examples of when events such as we are seeing happening right now have been a precursor to cold. Looking at those hopeful signs and trying to work out how and when they could affect is is all part of hunt for cold.

I think what you are missing is the fact that here on Netweather we are very lucky to have the input of some extremely knowledgeable people who study the vast array of climatic cycles and drivers which affect our weather. Of course making concrete predictions for our little island days and weeks in advance is an extremely difficult task but what they can do is give us an idea of how the possibilities and probabilities are weighed. I've been following the model thread here for years and the long term guidance on teleconnections from people such as GP, Tamara, Snowking, Catacol etc, while by no means always correct, is nevertheless very often in the right area - indeed far more so than you would expect with just chance. I think that's a slightly different point to examining the daily output of the op models but then we have incredibly knowledgeable people who do that - Steve M, Bluearmy, Nick Sussex etc - and are able to recognise model bias and second guess what might happen. Of course nobody gets it right all the time but if they did it would be incredibly boring.