Northern Sky

It's been very poor here, even compared to last Winter, with only two occasions where very light snow has briefly fallen. The frosts have been nice but zero laying snow. One thing I'd say though is that I'd still consider the first two weeks of March as Winter proper, certainly in my location. After that there's still lots of potential for snow but by then I'm desperate for Spring. Hopefully you'll hang in there for another week or two NWS and the charts do hold some promise at the moment.

We were all laughing at the pathetic performance of the GFS after the 'upgrade' so unless the verification stats have massively improved then it probably best not to get too hopeful if it shows something nice. After many years of model watching on here I've learnt to expect the mildest solution any model shows to be the most likely to verify. A bit downbeat but I've seen too many of these easterly attempts fail. I'll raise my hopes if I see it at 72hrs.

Isn't it nearly always the case that when we have a model stand off with two clear options that the end result is a hybrid?

Me! I like wind and rain and feel a bit disappointed that the outlook has changed relatively quickly from what looked like a stormy period of weather to boring high pressure dominated dross. I'm sure I'm not the only weather fan to like wind and rain. Might animate the GFS later as an aid to sleep.

I suspect the GEM paints a rather more plausible outlook at 240hrs...

Hi Mushy, am I right in thinking that chart indicates a rather cool Westerly rather than mild South Westerly's? If that were the case then I'd be happy to take it for a while at least. We've had lots of settled cold weather and a bit of windy even stormy weather would be a nice change. Was it Jan 84 when we had some true cold zonality? Almost always the cold air is watered down as it approaches the nearer timeframe but I live in hope that one day we'll see a repeat of that pattern.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but that looks like a Euro high to me rather than a Bartlett High? It looks too far north, meaning the UK is under the influence of high pressure and relatively cool temps if you look at the 2m charts. A true Bartlett is further south so directing mild and wet SW winds over the UK.

Just a quick grammatical aside... Why do people write "an SSW"? Surely there is no need for the n?Isn't it just a SSW? Sorry, carry on.

As always with these long range models, they reflect the possibilities available from the starting data. As soon as that data changes, so do the possibilities. I suppose sometimes the broad signals are more 'set' than at other times so as a rough guide sometimes they are useful. So many times though I've seen predictions for weeks ahead completely change in a matter of days. The good thing is that when it's bad it's also likely to wrong and therefore possible to quickly flip to good. The caveat to this is that the bad (for cold lovers) perhaps reflects the climatological norm and is therefore more likely to be right!

Looks great to me. I'd love a cold Christmas eve and a frost on Christmas morning.

It's obviously prone to inaccuracy given the extended period it covers, and I've seen it get things completely wrong. However, it can often be in the right general area, especially weeks 2-3 and certainly it's something to take note of.

I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be the first time! I'm glass half full too though, so I'll enjoy the next few days of cold whatever happens.

Different options being shown all within the envelope of possibilities. We won't be sure until these charts get down to 72hrs so plenty of time for ups and downs. One thing we can definitely say is that it's going to turn colder, which in December feels nice and seasonal. I'll enjoy that and anything else is a bonus.

A definite cooling trend at last in the models. I don't mind the outlook to be honest - wind, rain and cool is nice weather for the second half of November imo.

That's a poor snow record, I'd move inland a bit! Even last Winter, which was a poor one, we had lying snow on the 27th and 29th of November and on Boxing Day. Then 4th Jan, 19th Feb and 31st March 2022. The earliest snow the previous Winter was 4th Dec 2020 and lying snow 29th Dec followed by some superb snowfalls in Jan and more snow in Feb.

Yes big changes in the further ranges of the GFS and the first signs of what @Tamara talked about in her post last week?

CET temps can be found here - https://www.metjam.co.uk/blog/central-england-temperature-cet/ No cold Decembers in the 80's apart from 1981 but plenty of cold Jan and Feb's!

I'd be very happy with a cool/cold November and December, I love cold weather from late Autumn. After New Year I'm ready for Spring. The seasonal models are quite interesting - more so in that the lead time is less for those interesting bits. I'm very wary at the best of times with seasonal modelling but an October update for cold in Feb isn't exactly the most exciting or believable of prospects.

What was possible in 1903 might be rather less possible today. Looking at the models any notable cool down seems unlikely at the moment.

No measurable rain here since the 13th with very little if any forecast for the week ahead. I'm now chasing rain like I chase snow in Winter!

I love the GFS when it comes out with this stuff. Not seen charts like this for a while. I keep hoping that one day something like these charts could actually happen - proper cold zonality. To be honest I really like cold wind and rain so even in the event of the inevitable downgrade in how cold the air is I'm still hopeful of a bit of interesting weather. Not great when you work outside half the week like I do, but I'd still take it

GFS ends up cool/cold pretty much throughout the run. Little snow but plenty of frosts. It's (or it would be if it actually happened) much better than mild dross but I'm starting to miss a bit of wind and rain, never mind snow!

A similar pattern to that of the last week? What looked to be a fairly unpromising 24hr toppler produced a great Wintry 5 days of weather here with 2 snowfalls - not heavy but enough to produce a covering that stuck around for days - frosts and two days of sparkling blue skies. If we are in for some more of that I'll be very happy. So many of these things are dependent on location and I recognise that this pattern isn't great for Southern areas. Hopefully we can see a change and something for everyone later in the month.

The years of model watching blur into one but I'm sure I remember a period of cold zonality in recent times where the expected watering down of 850's didn't happen and in my location we had snow from it. Maybe it was last Winter I can't remember. I'm quite looking forward to this period of weather once the very mild stuff has cleared off. Cold/cool zonality with wind/rain/sleet/snow/sunshine will be a welcome change from the dank dreary high pressure around Christmas.

I think I'm in a minority but I don't think the models look that bad beyond the next few days. Wind, rain, feeling cold and little sign of the horrific long draw SW'ly's we are currently experiencing. Some scope for sleet and snow in the north and the possibility of frosts at times. It's been disappointing compared to last Winter here (which was superb) but we've had two snow falls and a few frosts which is already better than the entirety of some other recent Winters. And it's not even January yet.