Northern Sky

Me too! Chasing rain has become like chasing snow in Winter for me. The promise and hope always dashed as the charts move into the reliable.

Fairly small differences in the positioning of the low at around 144hrs on the GFS 00z and the 06z runs but the difference on the UK weather is striking. I'm really hoping the 06z is nearer the mark because we badly need some rain. It settles down again after so something for everyone

You're obviously not a gardener or bothered about what the vegetation looks like. We've had about 10mm of rain over the last 6 weeks and the top couple of feet of soil is bone dry, everything apart from the trees is looking tired already. I don't want a washout just a day of rain now and then to keep things fresh and growing.

Is there any rain in sight? Really had enough of this dry weather going on and on and on.

Surely a plunge of cold air is the most apt description?

Wind and rain. I like it It's not actually that mild either - cool wind and rain, which is even better!

It's been a Wintry mix of showers here today - sleet, hail and snow but with none settling. Had a little drive out to the Washburn Valley today and got caught in some lovely showers but not much settling apart from the very tops of the hills. Enjoyed it though!

Looks to be a load of showers packing in behind though. In terms of snow chances perhaps those are our best bet as they'll arrive later in the day and when the coldest air arrives? I think we'll be unlucky to miss out completely and I hope at least see some falling snow showers. I'm not back to work till Wed so I might go on a snow hunt tomorrow!

Looks like we'll miss that massive lump of precipitation. South Yorks looks right in the firing line for that although I imagine it will be mostly rain.

The jet is being pushed south again on the GFS 06z with the suppression of the Euro high. Cool, wet and windy which to me at least, is better than mild, wet and windy. High pressure to attempts to build in but that's way out in la la land.

If you are in York you are ideally placed for a trip to either the Dales or the North Yorkshire Moors. If you are looking for some really wild weather I'd get up to the Dales as perhaps you are more likely to see showers in the west? A drive in Wharfedale is to be recommended in any weather at any time - Grassington - Kettlewell - Starbotton - Buckden - Cray. Might be a touch bracing if you go for a walk!

It's interesting (and I suppose encouraging) to see that the PM air long forecast to reach us over the next couple of days looks like it will actually happen. I know it's not going to result in widespread snow but usually when the GFS counts this kind of PM shot down all the -5 air disappears completely. Might be the odd Wintry surprise over the next couple of days?

Not a bad run really in the context of this Winter. Especially if like me you like cold wind and snow/sleet/rain Plenty of PM shots and northern areas with some elevation would see some snow for sure, maybe even to lower levels at times. No doubt the ECM will be along later to burst this little bubble of optimism but I'll enjoy it till then.

What date do they go out to mulzy?

Beat me to it. I remember Feb 07 as being very mild - just checked 5.8 CET. hopefully if we get a similar evolution it will turn out better than that. Btw @Glacier Point where can I read your blog? Thanks, NS

Is there any chance of the jet digging south? Through late Nov early Dec the jet was far south and I know a few people speculated it was due to low solar. I suppose the key would be losing the heights over Europe so what would help with that? I realise that polar NWly's are not going to deliver down south but up here it would be far more preferable imo, than heights building to the east and the tiny chance of a Scandi high.

We've already had more frosts than the whole of last winter here. Not looking great at the moment though, I admit.

As far as I understand it I think GP was indicating a cyclonic Jan? If the jet stream stays south then that could mean plenty of PM air and therefore not that mild. Of course it may be that he just meant a train of SW'ly's propped up with a Euro high

Quick question. It seems we are in for a spell of cyclonic weather but is that guaranteed to be mild? The models show weather for the next week or so which is certainly not mild. It might not be a deep freeze but it will feel very cold with chances of snow for some. Does the forecast spell of continuing cyclonic weather mean more of this cool/cold zonality or is it likely to be more SW'ly driven? Are we expecting to see a rise in pressure over Europe or could the jet stream remain on a southerly track?

Yes it's the same every year. Very occasionally we get cold that appears in FI and gets more or less counted down but that is maybe one time in twenty or less. The fact is the models are simply not accurate at a range of anything above 96hrs and even then as you say they can be wrong. The best advice is when the models show different scenarios is always believe the one that is the worst for cold. It's fun chasing the cold as long as you don't have unrealistic expectations. Most of the time our Winters are pretty mild, that's just how it is, like it or not.

I'm guessing bluearmy is not convinced the GFS is modelling the arctic high correctly? I'm not sure any of the models are that great at modelling an Arctic high.

The last few GFS runs in far FI keep churning out crazy cold/cool zonality. Just once I'd love to see it actually happen. Wind, rain, sleet, the kitchen sink. I would love that sort of weather!

Really appreciate the answers @Mike Poole@Catacol Fascinating reading and much to think about. Cheers NS

Apologies for what may be some obvious questions but just trying to learn a bit - 1. At the moment we have a very unorganised trop vortex that is not coupled to a strong strat vortex? 2. The strat vortex is forecast to become weaker so does that mean it is likely to become more or less coupled to the trop vortex? 3. What would cause the trop vortex to gain strength as we move into Winter, would that be from forcing's in the trop, strat or both? 4. In very basic terms I think I understand that a weak strat vortex induced by a warming can downwell to help to make a weak trop vortex which makes high latitude blocking in the trop more likely - although where that sets up may or may not be conducive for cold in the UK? 5. Finally, given the current state of the trop vortex is there an optimum time for the potential influence of a warming to strike - ie would it be more effective if the trop vortex reorganises and following on from that would a strat warming be wasted on an unorganised trop vortex (if you see what I mean)? Thanks in advance. NS

If by that you mean it's going to rain then good. I can bear the heat for 1 day but that horrific night last night was too much. Hopefully not looking like a repeat on the models in the near future. Looking fairly pleasant as next week progresses.