Northern Sky

If you click on your user name at the top right of the page you can find the ignore users button. It's much better to just put people on ignore if you don't like their posts than to engage in off topic bickering.

Is it correct that these models were run earlier this month and the data released today? If so then the EC46 would reflect more recent data input. Not that that means it will be right, or the seasonal models will be wrong of course.

Me neither, but that does call into question the point of these long range models. If they are so subject to changes in the short term how can we expect to rely on them to predict so far into the future. Surely there will always be short term changes that radically change the outlook?

I think there is very often a tendency in FI to overdo heights pushing into Greenland. It's terrible for getting people's hopes up but far more often we see a result like tonight's GFS where the high just sinks and the Atlantic comes back in. I always expect the high to sink to save disappointment!

Is there somewhere/someone who could explain a temp inversion under high pressure - faux cold I think it's been called before? I understand that this is when the surface is cold but the 850's can be much milder than this would suggest. What I don't understand is how to discern when this will be the case? What are the factors are involved - I'm assuming cloud cover and wind direction play a significant part - so is it possible to read from the outputs what the surface conditions would be and how good are the models are forecasting this? Thanks in advance (if anyone can answer)

There's someone above writing off the whole of Winter never mind the last 3 weeks of December The GFS has had one of it's traditional early Winter FI runs today with huge deep low pressure systems battering the UK. It won't happen but I actually wouldn't mind it - alternating w/sw/nw wind and rain often feeling cold. I quite like that kind of weather.

I've not been paying enough attention so I wasn't expecting snow today. Now snowing light/medium and the radar looks pretty good!

That's usually the case isn't it? GFS FI is grim but some good late Autumn weather to look forward to in the reliable time frame - cool/cold wind rain/perhaps something more Wintry all in the mix, and it will make a pleasant change from the mild dross we've endured for much of the Autumn.

By further into Winter when do you mean Crewe? Last Winter was superb in my location but my only complaint was it all happened after Christmas. My favourite time for cold is now until New Year so hopefully Nina won't be a hindrance to that possibility?

It's not negative, it's realistic. It's a long way out and almost always it gets watered down or disappears altogether. I think this is especially true of a Greenland high which is shown far more often than it happens. All part of the fun and it's why we watch the models but it's always good to keep some realism there to avoid the continual disappointment.

Glorious weather over the last few days. Just the right temp for me :). The GFS 06Z is a horrific run if you want some rain though - which I do. Glad to see it's an outlier.

I was just trying to work out where that might land! I 'm remaining hopeful for now

Looking at the radar we are in line for a few more showers. The last one seemed to intensify as it reached Leeds so hopefully that will continue to happen.

Not too bad here in Leeds 16. Not a lot but it's settling.

We've got about a 1cm covering here. Looks a bit patchy on the radar but I think we'll be in line for a bit more off and on. We've been very lucky with the snow so far this Winter so I'm feeling quite relaxed about this one.

When do you think is our best chance round here Tim? Is it a case of just waiting to see what pops up?

Endless rain here today. Went to Otley earlier and the road down the hill was like a river. Just looked outside hoping to see a bit of sleet mixed in but all rain so far.

It's a 5 day potent cold spell/snap Crewe - if it breaks down as early as shown on the ECM tonight. Often we see entrenched cold air putting up a bit more of a fight, but even if it pans out like shown, I think after next week I'll be happy to start looking for signs of Spring.

Great explanation of where we are. Thanks for the reply

Question for you Kold. Bearing in mind how easterlies have failed in closer timeframes before, what's your view on the likelihood of that happening again given how close it is to a bust? Is anything after 120hrs worth looking at until this is resolved?

It's not worth advising anyone on predictions past (a)t furthest 120hrs - less if it's an easterly that's forecast. A major change from the ECM but how many times over the years have we seen that happen with easterlies? Far too early to say what will happen yet.

I think that's because London got a bit of snow! Parts of North Yorkshire have had lying snow for four weeks now. Back to the models and the GFS 06Z keeps the cold air over the north from 170hrs right till the end of the run.

I've missed this. What's happened to Kasim?

Crazy NH chart at 240hrs!

It's an interesting point because it just illustrates the fine margins on our little island. Up here it's been a fantastic Winter, with todays snow being the 4th and best so far. Fingers crossed everyone else can get in on the act. We are certainly in a better position now than most years.