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shuggee

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Everything posted by shuggee

  1. shuggee
    Very much a back of the envelope calculation, but impressive: ERT (Edinburgh Recorded Temp) for December is running at 3.19ºC And the ERT since the cold spell started on 18 December (11 days ago) is at -2.54ºC Nice
  2. shuggee
    I think that has to go down as the best Countryfile forecast to date for fans of snow and cold weather.
  3. shuggee
    Don't know how everyone else feels, but I'm really enjoying not really giving a monkeys about the detail of the models - just the trend is enough, knowing we're in for more white stuff over the next week. Must be how a Russian, Finn or a Swede must normally feel looking in on the intensity of the model thread when there's a whiff of cold in the air!
  4. shuggee
    New thread here: Please read what I've written. I hate pressing the delete button - it's such a waste of effort on your part.
  5. shuggee
    A fresh MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread. This thread is of course, to discuss the models. It's not for posts about the lack of snow in your back garden, how you feel if a random chart at T+300 came off nor is it to post about the lovely people on the BBC forecasts and what they are saying. There are plenty of other threads for such chatter - the best being the new one pinned alongside this here: Happy model watching
  6. shuggee
    Sleety snow in the city centre the now. 10th day running of wintry ppn - fab.
  7. shuggee
    An informal thread away from the model discussion for conversation about the continuing cold spell and potential for it to return south of Birmingham *snigger*
  8. shuggee
    Rain in the city centre now.
  9. shuggee
    ^^^ What Dave said. Happy Xmas from me too. As I look out over 6" of snow :lol: I'm starting to like the term 'positive feedback' - and we'll start a fresh thread in the morning :lol:
  10. shuggee
    Nope - they are the same. You sure you are comparing like with like?
  11. shuggee
    *Goes off to look*
  12. shuggee
    Here's the wind chart for midnight John: The trend is for it become more westerly in its northerly orientation as the evening/night goes on. Although EDI's automatic weather station is already reporting a straight westerly of 3mph.
  13. shuggee
    The 850 temperature overlay on the nw radar suggests E Lothian is on the cusp of rising above -4ºC... That'll explain it snowyowl. The showers are dieing out down here though - pheww!
  14. shuggee
    A refreshingly sensible post SnowBallz Just a reminder this is the Model Discussion thread - please stay on topic
  15. shuggee
    3.8 for me please
  16. shuggee
    I'm not sure how you can disagree? I'm no expert, but what appears to be the sixth lowest ice total for mid December ever recorded suggests GW is right?
  17. shuggee
    Who you got in mind Fred? I've not read in anybody's LRF about this cold spell significant for its intensity and duration - and the CET competition suggests nor did the majority of members. Which is really the first and crucial test in month one of a three month seasonal LRF. But I'll give credit where it's due...
  18. shuggee
    Here's the 12Z netweather mesoscale model (NMM) output for Xmas night (tomorrow at midnight). BBC/Meto have the band of ppn pushing up from the southwest a little quicker than this output: Will be very interesting to see what falls out of the sky. Low surface temps and marginal uppers (as seen on the 850 middle chart). Hmmmm. EDIT You a mind reader Mondy?
  19. shuggee
    Nope it's all showers on the east coast coming no further inland than earlier Madman.
  20. shuggee
    I'm wondering how Scotrail will be coping - was ok this morning on the commute up to Dundee, but I do have to get home again... Looking at the live departure boards online at Waverley it's looking erm not good... First ppn approaching Dundee. I'm glued to the window lol.
  21. shuggee
    To qoute our cousins in the west, it's pure dead brilliant. That's a lot of snow. It'll be a 15 certificate
  22. shuggee
    Reluctantly I have to agree LS. Shocking. Oh aye :lol:
  23. shuggee
    I've just run outside into the 6 inches of snow in my shorts to experience this -11ºC. Coldest temp I've ever been in - 'twas like opening the freezer door :lol:
  24. shuggee
    The actual pressure spread of the day of verification gives a score of 1 (see the 'y' axis up the side). Each line then shows a model's individual score (see the key for which colour represents which model). The nearer to 1 - the more accurate the 6 day forecast :lol:
  25. shuggee
    Interesting to see the verification stats for T+120 over the last week. GFS/ECM seem very much neck and neck and as was suggested by many members on here both struggled with the evolution after the initial UK cold at the weekend. UKMO up there too:
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