shuggee

Probably as true as the other right wing conservative-agenda crap on the other pages of that site Pit.

My view is that forecasting a westward extending high pressure is always a tricky business, and the models themselves are weak beyond T+120/T+144 at nailing it correctly, as history time again proves. What's even worse is that human forecasters themselves who have no vested interest or fetish in seeing one outcome or the other have huge difficulty in calling it too. Obviously, as always, those wanting cold weather will always back that solution - and it is for us the reader to decide on the pedigree and previous performance of human commentators what is likely and what is more unlikely to happen. It's literally all up in the air Jayces.

Indeed - and looking at the ECM 00Z it would appear that it was backing the UKMO view. Could end up being the GFS vs the Euros again, and currently it's the Euros that are proving the more reliable:

3.1ºC

Just home from a business trip up north to Peterhead - 48 hours too early! Dam. Not looking particularly inspiring in the short-medium term for the central belt.

Welcome to posting on nw strathearn snow Enjoyed seeing snow right down to the sea in east Fife earlier this month from the train

As might be expected, extensive snow still here on the Pentland hills in Lothian, Lomond hills in Fife and all the mountains inland from the coast between Dundee and Aberdeen. Big piles of snow more or less at sea level in north Aberdeenshire.

11ºC in Edinburgh today - mildest day since 24 November.

Stunning GEFS agreement right up to the end of the reliable:

My experience of northerlies in Edinburgh is that they tend to be one of two kinds: Type A, by far the most common having an instance of say three out of four occasions: Cold, breezy, blue skies and sunny. Night frosts and a clear view out over the Forth of heavy snow showers passing down the north sea to hit the very east of East Lothian/Scottish Borders and NE England. or Type B, say one occurrence out of four: As above - but a more disturbed flow (ie kinks appearing in the isobars from the flow). That then randomly triggers spells of snow which are unforecastable and appear suddenly out of nowhere, and more often than not at that time in the morning when dew points and temps are just starting to rise due to the effect of the sun after a cold frosty night. Wonder which type this will be for us

There's a naughty copy of the forecast here: http://www.youtube.c...h?v=zcHqOh-Kmc8

More discussion of the Countryfile/Countrytracks forecast in the appropriate thread here: http://forum.netweat...orecast-thread/

LS - in relation to your question on the shout board, the rule of thumb (ie not an exact science) with 850 temps is add about 10ºC to get surface temp at sea level.

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The problem with him is that he says this every year. If I was to stand at the end of my street I say the next car will be red, eventually I will be right. There are quite a few folk who use this technique - forgetting that some of us actually remember. Which actually means they are the ones who are disrespectful thinking we would be stupid enough to fall for their cries of cold yet again. I find this rude and insulting.

NMM precipitation type charts for tonight - mountain snow only:

Pete, people at work were saying that there have been a number of Sea Eagles spotted on Loch Leven over the past few weeks. Very unusual and very impressive birds.

:winky: Robbie - I'm only able to enjoy this so much as I'm off work with a bad back! This all seems a very similar evolution to the third/fourth week of December, but with a less potent easterly to start with then winds backing round to the north.

This morning's snow illustrates its fickle nature in the UK. Remember 10 days ago when the south was forecast snow on the Sunday and it rained - despite a continental flow and uppers of -7 to -9ºC. This morning's uppers are around -2ºC yet the snow is more widespread... Makes me feel sorry for forecasters!

The evolution after the block moves away is interesting. Been a few hints on here and in the models (e.g. last night's JMA) that one of the arms of the PV is likely to move into Scandinavia, bringing a period of disturbed northerlys and proper cold. Much better than some half hearted easterly that will have taken ten days to send a bit of cloud over eastern England :winky:

06Z GFS doing what the JMA suggested last night, and what GP has been hinting at for a while - but getting there in a different way. Polar vortex moving to our northeast - meaning disrupted northerly winds from the end of next week.... Hubba

Yes that JMA is interesting. There has been talk of upstream signals hinting at the splitting of the polar vortex and one part falling into Scandinavia. Of course, the block to the east needs to lessen its grip first of all and there's precious little sign of that happening yet. So maybe that JMA chart could come true at T+300...

Were they? Today's 12Z GFS T+24: And last Thursday's 12Z GFS T+144: Of course, if folk insist on looking beyond anything like the reliable timeframe then of course it's going to chop and change all of the time. That's why anything past T+144 should be taken with the largest pinch of salt and it's quite disingenuous to be forever saying how 'the models are struggling' etc etc when actually they are performing within normal parameters as indeed the model verification stats at 6 days continue to show...

Quite a change in the last 48 hours in probabilities...

There weren't any warning whatsoever for Edinburgh's heaviest snowfall for 25 years Graeme in the small hours of Weds 23 Dec. Was all a bit of a Meto cock up.